The initial release of the college football playoff rankings is a bittersweet moment in the college football calendar. Yes, we receive valuable information that helps us understand how the committee has evaluated current resumes. We also get a chance to break away from using an AP Top 25 that has drawn its fair share of criticism in 2025.
It also signifies the approaching end of the regular season. With just four weeks remaining, we have a strong sense of who is well-positioned to extend their season and who needs a miracle. Week 11 is light on ranked matchups (just three), but weeks like this can create chaos.
The Playoff Picture
The Playoff Committee released its first round of rankings on Tuesday, beginning the weekly poll announcements:
- Ohio State (8-0)
- Indiana (9-0)
- Texas A&M (8-0)
- Alabama (7-1)
- Georgia (7-1)
- Ole Miss (8-1)
- BYU (8-0)
- Texas Tech (8-1)
- Oregon (7-1)
- Notre Dame (6-2)
- Texas (7-2)
- Oklahoma (7-2)
- Utah (7-2)
- Virginia (8-1) - 11 Seed
- Louisville (7-1)
- Vanderbilt (7-2)
- Georgia Tech (8-1)
- Miami, FL (6-2)
- USC (6-2)
- Iowa (6-2)
- Michigan (7-2)
- Missouri (6-2)
- Washington (6-2)
- Pittsburgh (7-2)
- Tennessee (6-3)
Major Takeaways
SEC Respect - A block of four SEC teams from positions 3 through 6 indicates that the committee values the conference's one-loss teams over the one-loss Big Ten representative, Oregon. The SEC is in a strong position with this block, as there are no more overlapping matchups outside the SEC title game, allowing the conference to secure two of the Top 4 byes and two first-round home games.
Texas and Oklahoma are in the 11th and 12th spots, but they are currently out of the bracket, as the ACC and the remaining highest-ranked conference champion will grab the last two positions. This will shift as BYU and Texas Tech play in Week 11. The Big 12 is likely a one-bid league, as no other teams are ranked. Cincinnati's loss to Utah and Houston's loss to West Virginia in Week 10 likely shut out the chances of a second team, short of BYU running the regular season table, then losing in the title game.
Texas would certainly earn a spot if it wins out, requiring wins over Georgia and Texas A&M to accomplish that. Winning out would likely put the Longhorns into the SEC title game. Oklahoma plays Alabama next, a high-level win that would put a 10-2 Sooners team into the field.
Vanderbilt is the most interesting bid for a fifth SEC team. They avoid all six SEC teams ranked above them, finishing with Auburn, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Their best win would be over a four-loss Tennessee or LSU team. The SEC media coalition arguing for a blue-blood Alabama in 2024 is one thing; it would be interesting to see if the same vigor would exist for the Commodores.
Oregon is stuck. The Ducks are sixth in the AP poll, with two teams ahead of them guaranteed a loss. There are scenarios where the Big Ten could grab three of the four byes. Coming in the 8/9 line is a double blow to the Big Ten. It becomes more challenging to move into the Top 4, while it also sets up the potential for a repeat of 2024, when the top-seeded Ducks ran into Ohio State in the second round. With only three likely playoff teams, the Big Ten's ideal scenario would be to grab the #1 seed, then the Big Ten championship loser as the three seed, with Oregon in the 7 seed. That creates the chance that three of the four semifinalists are from the Big Ten and an all-Big Ten final. If the title game loser drops to four and the Ducks stay in the 8/9 seed, the best the conference can do is one finalist and two semi-finalists.
Georgia Tech and Miami losing in Week 10 is a disaster for the ACC. Miami had a head-to-head win over Notre Dame while Georgia Tech was the only remaining undefeated team. The conference's last best hope for two teams involves Georgia Tech beating rival Georgia to close the regular season.
The 12th seed is wide open, as there is currently no highest-ranked fifth-conference champion. James Madison (7-1, Sun Belt), San Diego St. (7-1, Mountain West), and three AAC teams: Navy (7-1), Memphis (8-1), and North Texas (8-1) are the primary candidates.
Near Locks
- Ohio St
- Indiana
- Texas A&M
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Ole Miss
- Oregon
These teams would all likely need to lose twice, and we are running out of opportunities to do so.
Placeholders
- Big 12 Champ
- ACC Champ
- Highest-ranked remaining champ
Win Out and In
- Texas
- Oklahoma
- Notre Dame
Wildcards
- 10-2 Vanderbilt
- Two Loss Big Ten Team (Michigan, USC, Iowa, Washington)
- 12-1 BYU (Big 12 title game loser)
- 11-2 Georgia Tech (with a win over Georgia)
The Updated 2026 Big Board
Notes
Updating the Big Board to 36 this week, as we have seen names consistently mentioned in the 2026 class. With multiple underclassmen on the board and an NIL landscape that has made staying in school worthwhile, the final makeup is sure to fluctuate.
The buzz around Ty Simpson as QB1 in the class is swelling. A coach's son who checks the boxes physically, Simpson has been putting NFL-caliber throws on tape for weeks.
Consensus may bristle at moving Carnell Tate over Jordan Tyson. Tate has been phenomenal, and the Buckeye lineage is gold in the draft streets.
For all the talk about the 2026 class being weak, it's likely to produce a running back the Dynasty community really wants, between four to six first-round wide receivers, a potential high-end tight end, and three or four first-round quarterbacks. Yes, Jeremiah Smith is in 2027, but these rookies will generate plenty of buzz by spring.
Love is the only running back likely to go in Round 1, but there are talented backs with the athleticism and build to be three-down workhorses who should populate Day 2.
There is a lot of size at wide receiver. We have seen some bigger wide receivers struggle to get rolling early in their careers, notably Marvin Harrison Jr. Given the class already lacks buzz, any slow starts will likely be viewed harshly.
Sellers is the most significant question mark. He was very hyped coming into the year, but has not delivered consistently. We have seen other toolsy quarterbacks slip down draft boards. That said, he's also physically gifted enough that NFL teams may say, "Duh, we are going to try and figure it out with the uber athletic guy."