Aaron Rodgers: Better Than an Also-Ran

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Aaron Rodgers isn't exactly a scorching-hot fantasy commodity these days, so you might be wondering why he's getting the full Spotlight treatment. The reality is that I constantly track my personal projections and rankings against the broader industry consensus, mainly to ensure that whenever I emerge as an outlier, it's entirely intentional. With that in mind, I was somewhat surprised to find that my largest positional variance across the entire quarterback landscape is none other than Aaron "42 and counting" Rodgers.

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With an ADP sitting down at QB28, Rodgers is an absolute non-factor in traditional 12-team redraft leagues. However, there are still plenty of you playing in Superflex formats where this depth of analysis carries genuine weight. I currently project Rodgers as the QB24, which moves him into low-end starter consideration in Superflex. More importantly, I view him as a far superior late-game draft target compared to a handful of quarterbacks the industry feels inexplicably more comfortable selecting ahead of him.

Reunited With Mike McCarthy

The seismic news of the NFL offseason was the end of Mike Tomlin's legendary 19-year tenure in Pittsburgh. Tomlin left an incredible regular-season legacy (193-114-2), but the divorce wasn't sparked by September-to-December execution. It was driven by a perennial inability to make deep postseason runs. While Tomlin secured a Super Bowl title in 2008 and an AFC Championship in 2010, the Steelers sputtered to a 3-10 playoff record over his final 15 seasons, failing to capture a single postseason victory after 2016.

Enter Mike McCarthy, who arrives with a remarkably parallel narrative. After hoisting the Lombardi Trophy with Green Bay in 2010, McCarthy has gone a modest 6-9 in the postseason since. Even after guiding the Dallas Cowboys to a playoff win in 2022, he found himself replaced by Jerry Jones following the 2024 season due to the exact same ceiling issues.

Regardless of your personal evaluation of McCarthy's career, we have to acknowledge a fundamental truth: he remains one of the most accomplished offensive play-callers in modern football. I highlighted some of this data in the Michael Pittman Jr Spotlight, but it is absolutely worth repeating here.

In 21 seasons as an NFL play-caller, McCarthy's teams have ranked 10th, on average, in scoring. While a top-10 average is impressive on its own, it is far better than you may think when stacked directly against the long-tenured offensive coaches that most see as the league's best:

Most Respected NFL Veteran Play-Callers (Career Team Ranks, By Category)

Not only is McCarthy likely to yield a more productive scoring offense, but he's also likely to throw more than we're used to seeing under Tomlin. On average, McCarthy's teams have ranked 12th in pass attempts and 20th in rushing attempts. In the 17-game era, that equates to 584 passing attempts and 441 rushing attempts.

By comparison, the Steelers' last five seasons have averaged 558 passing attempts and 468 rushing attempts. Long story short, we need to rewire our brains to expect Pittsburgh to throw more in 2026, and for as long as McCarthy is at the helm.

Meaningful Upgrades in the Receiving Corps