RELATED: See all of our 2026 Player Spotlights here
A Return to Greatness
Things didn't go according to plan for CeeDee Lamb in 2025, and fantasy managers who bet on him continuing his streak of Top-8 performances were sorely disappointed. If you had a crystal ball before last season and knew Lamb would finish WR19, you probably would've blamed new head coach Brian Schottenheimer for throttling back the offensive game plan and moving to a run-heavy, ball-control approach.
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Yet Lamb's downfall was related to two entirely different issues. One, Lamb was banged up, missing three games and being less than 100% for most of the season. Two, the Cowboys traded for George Pickens before the season, who immediately commanded an alpha role.
The fantasy community appears set to bet on a bounce-back this year, with Lamb going comfortably in the Top 12 overall as a late first-round pick, on average. That's an aggressive position to take, but justifiable, provided you believe three things:
- The Cowboys will continue throwing the ball at the same rate this year, even if the defense is improved.
- Lamb will demonstrably reclaim the No. 1 target position from George Pickens.
- Lamb will enjoy positive touchdown regression, returning to his career average or better.
Last Year's Disappointment
Lamb suffered a high ankle sprain very early in Week 3 against the Bears, and missed most of that game and the following three. High ankle sprains are notoriously hard for receivers to come back from, and even when he returned, he acknowledged that he wasn't 100 percent. He also missed the second half of the Week 14 game against the Lions with a concussion.
All in all, Lamb played 12 full games worth of snaps, even though his box score says he played 14 games. Fortunately, Lamb's injuries are behind him and pose no danger of hindering his peak performance entering 2026.
The Cowboys Pass/Run Ratio
As an analyst, it's important to own your mistakes. One of my biggest gaffes last year was my preseason modeling of the Cowboys under new head coach Brian Schottenheimer. I believed Schottenheimer would throttle back the pass attempts and force a balanced approach. And in the event a porous defense forced him off script, the offense wouldn't be nearly as productive, because his prior stints as a play-caller always fell apart when his teams were forced into being pass-heavy.
As we now know, the Cowboys didn't throttle back their passing attack:
- Attempts: 624 (3rd in the NFL)
- Yards: 4,527 (2nd)
- Touchdown Passes: 31 (5th)
The question to ask is whether the organization's offseason commitment to improving the defense changes the equation. For clarity, here are the extensive changes on the defensive side of the ball:
- Coaching: Christian Parker replaces Matt Eberflus as defensive coordinator.
- Defensive Line: Full seasons from last year's trade acquisitions DE Quinnen Williams and DT Kenny Clark; new starting nose tackle Otito Ogbonnia; new rotational interior lineman Jonathan Bullard; new edge starter Rashan Gary.
- Linebackers/Secondary: New inside linebacker Dee Winters; new starting safety Jalen Thompson; new starting cornerback Cobie Durant.
- Rookie Influx: First-round rookies safety Caleb Downs and edge defender Malachi Lawrence; three more rookie defenders in the third and fourth rounds: LT Overton, Jaishawn Barham, and Devin Moore.
That's a lot of new talent coming into the locker room. While there are no guarantees everyone will gel, the Cowboys ranked dead last (32nd) defensively last year, and it's nearly impossible not to project a significant step forward. Even if the Cowboys move up to the middle of the league's defensive pack, it could mean a more balanced run/pass ratio.
However, Schottenheimer disproved my fears last year by managing a hyper-productive, pass-happy attack. With the Cowboys' key offensive pieces all returning, I'm loath to project a major step down in passing volume. We're forecasting 610 targets going into the season.