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Going live with projections in early February means operating in a vacuum, with no industry benchmarks for comparison. While it is thrilling to be among the first to put our analysis out there, it also means accepting that initial projections will naturally deviate from the eventual market consensus.
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Drafting in a Vacuum: Calibrating My TE Projections Against Consensus
Needless to say, my rankings have evolved significantly over the last few months as coaching changes, free agency, and the NFL draft altered the landscape. Now that the rest of the industry is finally launching their projections, it's the perfect time to stack my numbers against the broader market consensus and highlight the biggest discrepancies.
My goal isn't to stand out from the crowd just for the sake of it, but to ensure every deviation is intentional. That intentionality is where you find your edge; it's where you can optimize your drafts while your league mates blindly trust site ADPs and generic cheat sheets.
Key Tight End Differences
| My Rank | Player | Team | Industry Rank | ADP | Average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL | 7 | 8 | 7.5 | 3.5 |
| 5 | Colston Loveland | CHI | 3 | 3 | 3.0 | (2.0) |
| 7 | Travis Kelce | KC | 9 | 10 | 9.5 | 2.5 |
| 8 | Tucker Kraft | GB | 5 | 5 | 5.0 | (3.0) |
| 10 | Mark Andrews | BAL | 15 | 11 | 13.0 | 3.0 |
| 11 | Dallas Goedert | PHI | 14 | 15 | 14.5 | 3.5 |
| 12 | George Kittle | SF | 10 | 9 | 9.5 | (2.5) |
| 15 | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 11 | 12 | 11.5 | (3.5) |
| 21 | Chig Okonkwo | WAS | 20 | 16 | 18.0 | (3.0) |
| 22 | Oronde Gadsden | LAC | 17 | 17 | 17.0 | (5.0) |
| 24 | David Njoku | LAC | 28 | 32 | 30.0 | 6.0 |
Pitts Will Be a Hit
Kyle Pitts Sr.: My TE4 vs. Consensus TE7.5
The Situation: Pitts is tightly bunched in my projections in a tier with Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, and Harold Fannin Jr.; they're separated by approximately a single touchdown. That means I'm not going to quibble over anyone preferring others in the tier when they're on the clock. But Pitts' ADP implies he belongs below all of those guys by a few rounds, and that makes no sense to me unless you think Falcons head coach Kevin Stefanski is incapable of fielding a sound offense this season.
Odds of Adjusting: LOW
Pitts signed a 3-year, $53 million deal with $36 million guaranteed this offseason, putting him behind only George Kittle and Trey McBride in AAV. He's only 26 years old and is, at worst, the No. 2 target in the Falcons passing game behind Drake London. Barring injuries up and down the roster, Pitts will remain a top-4 option on my board.
What's Not to Love(land)?
Colston Loveland: My TE5 vs. Consensus TE3
The Situation: As I already noted, there's very little separating my projections for Loveland, Pitts, Warren and Fannin Jr. If you prefer Loveland as the third tight end, it's fully justifiable. I have him below Pitts and Warren simply because I believe there are more viable targets in the Bears passing attack than in the Falcons and Colts, respectively.
Odds of Adjusting: LOW
Loveland came on strong in the second half of his rookie season, and with DJ Moore out of the rotation, it's clear he'll be one of Caleb Williams' top three targets.
The Honeymoon Isn't Over
Travis Kelce: My TE7 vs. Consensus TE9
The Situation: Travis Kelce has been busy this offseason, and that has some worrying he is about to fall off the cliff. I don't see it. Look at the Chiefs roster and tell me how they're going to function as a playoff contender without peppering Kelce with his usual high target share? He was the TE4 last season (TE9 on a per-game basis), and that was with Patrick Mahomes II hurt for part of the season.
Odds of Adjusting: MEDIUM
If Mahomes' ACL recovery isn't going as well as the team has intonated, or if Kelce suffers a soft-tissue injury in camp because of a lack of conditioning, I will adjust accordingly. But if he's a regular participant in camp, and things are their usual status quo, there's no reason to think what we've seen of Kelce the last two seasons isn't his baseline, with touchdown variance still giving him further upside.
I Need Kraft at a Discount
Tucker Kraft: My TE8 vs. Consensus TE5
The Situation: Tucker Kraft is an industry darling, and I certainly understand the upside case. But he's coming off a major injury, and we're basing his TE5 ranking on an 8-game sample size last year. The problem is that he caught six touchdowns in an eight-game span, and touchdown volatility suggests regression. Tucker had just 70 targets in 2024 in a 17-game season, and that's a career high. The Packers don't throw a lot, and there are plenty of other viable targets. It just doesn't add up to putting Kraft in the same tier as Pitts, Fannin, Warren, and Loveland, who all have paths to 100+ targets.
Odds of Adjusting: LOW
Even if Kraft's injury concerns are put to bed with a healthy start to camp, the Packers' low passing volumes and breadth of target alternatives will keep me from tiering Kraft as high as his ADP demands.