Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
I hope that you have been sticking with my Picks of the Week, because that’s the best thing I’ve done in this column this season. After so many successful seasons, this has been a rough one. Just like with Daily Fantasy Sports, every week is a new week, so we wipe the slate clean for Week 10 and try to put forth a winning effort. So here we go:
Bye week teams: Buffalo, Detroit, Indianapolis, Washington
Teams returning from a bye: Arizona, Chicago, Cincinnati, Houston, Minnesota, New England, Washington
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) BALTIMORE (-10) vs. CLEVELAND
At first I thought that I might take the Browns to cover in this game, but then I remembered that this season the point spread has not been factoring in much at all. Then I thought longer about how Cleveland was competitive against the Ravens in Week 2, but that was in part due to Isaiah Crowell breaking off a long touchdown run and Josh McCown hitting Corey Coleman for two scores, and McCown is not playing in this game. That was enough for me to decide just on that, but the Ravens’ run defense has vastly improved since September, and they are likely to keep Cleveland under 14 points at home on a short week. Baltimore 30, Cleveland 13. PICK: Ravens
JACKSONVILLE (+2) vs. HOUSTON
This pick may surprise a few people, but the Jaguars just changed offensive coordinators and last week Chris Ivory had his best game of the season, as did Allen Robinson. Houston is giving up over 125 yards a game on the ground and eight touchdowns, so I like Ivory to have some success. Both teams are pretty solid against the pass, but if it came down to the quarterback I would still lean slightly to Blake Bortles over Brock Osweiler. Close call, but I will take the home team and a few extra points as a head start. PICK: Jaguars
DENVER (+2) at NEW ORLEANS
New Orleans cannot stop the run or the pass, so Denver just has to figure out which way to attack the Saints. My money would be on the ground game, as Trevor Siemian has not looked right of late, but then again this could be a great spot for him to right that ship. Either way, Denver’s offense will not be stopped (unless Siemian throws interceptions), and the Bronco defense will stop New Orleans enough for Denver to get back on the winning track. PICK: Broncos
NEW YORK JETS (-1.5) vs. LOS ANGELES
In a word – yuck. The Jets stuff the run, while the Rams have virtually no offense. Carolina is not good against the pass, yet Los Angeles only scored one touchdown in the final minute of the game. This could easily be a 10-6 type game, but I want the team running the ball better, which is New York with Matt Forte. This could be ugly, and I really want no part of it. PICK: Jets
PHILADELPHIA (EVEN) vs. ATLANTA
This is a tricky one, because I like the Eagles against the run and the Falcons can stop no one on defense. That means the Eagles should score 27+ points, so the question is will Atlanta break 27? Only two teams have broken that barrier against Philadelphia this season, but it was Dallas (thanks to overtime) and the Giants – the last two contests. This is a tough call and I see a 31-27 or 34-31 type contest, so I am siding with the home team with slightly better special teams. PICK: Eagles
KANSAS CITY (+3) at CAROLINA
Carolina just barely beat the Rams 13-10 last week, which shows that their offense is struggling quite a bit these days. Kansas City may not be the strongest run defense, but their pass rush and special teams are way above average. Considering that Spencer Ware and Alex Smith look on track to be active and playing in this one, I like the Chiefs to keep their winning ways going in North Carolina this week. PICK: Chiefs
CHICAGO (EVEN) at TAMPA BAY
This feels like the right time to pick Chicago, because Tampa Bay’s defense has been dreadful week after week, especially against the passing game. The other part of the equation is that the Bears have been getting better and better on defense, and are middle of the pack or better in a lot of defensive categories. Tampa Bay will be down to their fourth string running back with Peyton Barber, and he will likely start. That’s not a positive sign. Neither is Mike Evans still being in the concussion protocol on Wednesday. Throw in that Jameis Winston got nicked up a little last week and I see a lot of positive signs for Chicago, but I really only have so much trust in Jay Cutler. PICK: Bears
MINNESOTA (+3) at WASHINGTON
Minnesota has a strong defense, but the problem has been their offensive line. One of the best cures for that is to play a bad defensive front, which is what Washington offers up this week. Washington is in a full blown committee for their backfield with Rob Kelley, Matt Jones and Chris Thompson, which reminds me that if you have three running backs you really have none. The Vikings will look much better on offense as they will get some good lanes to run in and that will be all they need to get the win on the road. PICK: Vikings
TENNESSEE (+3) vs. GREEN BAY
Tennessee is going to try and run the ball early and often with DeMarco Murray, but the soft spot against the Packers is through the air. Last week Marcus Mariota picked apart the Chargers on the road for over 300 yards and three touchdowns with a set of targets that has to be considered mediocre at best. How often are we going to fall in the trap of Aaron Rodgers and “he is just too good to not put up big numbers every week?” Green Bay can be run on, and the Titans think that they have a shot at their division – plus their passing game is firing on most of its cylinders Give me the home team plus a field goal. PICK: Titans
SAN DIEGO (-3.5) vs. MIAMI
Both Miami and San Diego are terrible against the run, but for different reasons. The Dolphins are giving up 136 yards a game, which is 30th in the league (third worst). The Chargers are much better at 85 yards a game and 3.8 a carry, yet somehow they have given up 13 touchdowns on the ground, the worst in the league. So consider Melvin Gordon and Jay Ajayi a wash for a moment. Now let’s take Philip Rivers against Ryan Tannehill – seems like advantage to San Diego to me. How about Josh Lambo vs. Andrew Franks? Chargers again. That’s enough for me to make the call to the home team by a slim margin, 31-27. PICK: Chargers
ARIZONA (-13.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The 49ers are the worst run defense in the NFL and it is not even close. Seriously, go look – they are giving up almost 200 yards a game on the ground. David Johnson might get 14 points on his own in the first quarter. He may not even come out in pads after halftime, it is going to be that ugly. Why would Arizona even think about throwing the ball against a team giving up 5.3 yards per carry with David Johnson? I don’t care what Colin Kaepernick or DuJuan Harris did against the Saints last week – it was the Saints. This is the Cardinals on defense here. David Johnson 24 (Arizona 31), San Francisco 6. PICK: Cardinals
DALLAS (+2.5) at PITTSBURGH
This game could be a very entertaining one, which is why it will be the nationally broadcasted 4:25PM Eastern contest this week. Dallas is 7-1 and rolling after cruising past Cleveland, while Pittsburgh is looking to circle their wagons at home after a humbling loss in Baltimore. The Steelers always seem to be better at home than on the road, but this is a big test against Dallas. Ezekiel Elliott is simply on fire, and Pittsburgh is a middle of the road ground game on paper but they are really open to attack from pass catching running backs, having yielded a combined 43-431-3 receiving to RBs out of the backfield. That is the fifth highest yardage total in the league – and three of the other four teams ahead of them have played an extra contest. The three scores is also third worst, so a back with good hands out of the backfield (like Elliott) will cause problems. Dak Prescott will also create some concerns for a porous Steeler secondary. This should be a back and forth game – if Ben Roethlisberger can get the offense going. I think he can, but Dallas offers up too much offense to be held back here. Cowboys 31, Steelers 27. PICK: Cowboys
NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) vs. SEATTLE
Russell Wilson finally looked good on Monday Night Football against the Buffalo Bills, but that is part of the problem here. The Patriots have had 14 days between games while Seattle gets just six, and they have to travel across the country. That’s two strikes right there. Now you can factor in Bill Belichick dissecting the Bills’ successful game plan against Seattle last week and you better believe that he will be ready with Dion Lewis or James White to catch passes out of the backfield like LeSean McCoy. That will spread the linebackers thin and allow Tom Brady to hit either Rob Gronkowski or Julian Edelman over the middle of the field. The Seahawks are starting to show some signs of life, but they are masking a bad rushing attack, so expect the Patriots to defend the pass first and spy Russell Wilson. That all sounds like a recipe for yet another Patriots victory. PICK: Patriots
(Monday) NEW YORK GIANTS (-2) vs. CINCINNATI
The Bengals are going to be coming off of their bye week with plenty of rest, which will only help both Jeremy Hill and Tyler Eifert to be at full strength at MetLife Stadium. Everyone is going to bill this matchup as Odell Beckham Jr. vs. A.J. Green, but the Giants are going to have to find someone other than Beckham to make big plays, and I really think that neither Paul Perkins or Rashad Jennings will offer much running attack to balance the offense. I think that New York is going to have to get Will Tye in the mix to matter, as the Bengals have given up five touchdowns to tight ends this season along with 46 receptions (tied for 9th worst) and 639 yards (tied for 3rd worst). Can Eli Manning exploit that matchup? I think he can, and that might be just enough to get a close victory – but I see it as way too close to call. I will pick the Giants by a field goal here, but either team can win this one. PICK: Giants
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- (Thursday) BALTIMORE (-10) vs. CLEVELAND
- DENVER (+2) at NEW ORLEANS
- PHILADELPHIA (EVEN) vs. ATLANTA
- CHICAGO (EVEN) at TAMPA BAY
- MINNESOTA (+3) at WASHINGTON
- KANSAS CITY “FOR THE WIN” (+150) at CAROLINA
- MINNESOTA “FOR THE WIN” (+135) at WASHINGTON
- TENNESSEE “FOR THE WIN” (+130) vs. GREEN BAY
- DALLAS “FOR THE WIN” (+125) at PITTSBURGH
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+610 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-1.5) vs. SEATTLE
- DENVER (+8) at NEW ORLEANS
- DALLAS (+8.5) at PITTSBURGH
- (Thursday) BALTIMORE (-4) vs. CLEVELAND
- KANSAS CITY (+9) at CAROLINA
- TENNESSEE (+9) vs. GREEN BAY
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+890 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-1.5) vs. SEATTLE
- DENVER (+8) at NEW ORLEANS
- DALLAS (+8.5) at PITTSBURGH
- (Thursday) BALTIMORE (-4) vs. CLEVELAND
- KANSAS CITY (+9) at CAROLINA
- TENNESSEE (+9) vs. GREEN BAY
- MINNESOTA (+9) at WASHINGTON
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- KANSAS CITY (+3) at CAROLINA
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+265 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-1.5) vs. SEATTLE
- DENVER (+8) at NEW ORLEANS
- DALLAS (+8.5) at PITTSBURGH
- (Thursday) BALTIMORE (-4) vs. CLEVELAND
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+410 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-1.5) vs. SEATTLE
- DENVER (+8) at NEW ORLEANS
- DALLAS (+8.5) at PITTSBURGH
- (Thursday) BALTIMORE (-4) vs. CLEVELAND
- KANSAS CITY (+9) at CAROLINA
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (+165 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-1.5) vs. SEATTLE
- DENVER (+8) at NEW ORLEANS
- DALLAS (+8.5) at PITTSBURGH
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Baltimore, Denver, Kansas City, Minnesota, Tennessee, Arizona, Dallas, New England, New York Giants
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 6-7 (46.2%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 5-14 (26.3%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 4-5 (44.4%)
Season
- OVERALL: 63-69-1 (47.7%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 63.1-115 (35.4%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 34-32 (51.5%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
