Buy Low
Spencer Ware, RB, KC - Ware should be back this week, although he will face the stiff Panthers run defense. He has consistently demonstrated the receiving ability to weather poor rushing matchup storms, and those Week 12 and 16 matchups against Denver all of the sudden look favorable for a running back. Ware was an RB1 before Jamaal Charles returned, there’s no reason to think that he won’t have the ability and game scripts to do it again after Charles went on injured reserve, but I suspect you can get him for less than that in redraft and dynasty leagues.
Brice Butler, WR, DAL - Terrance Williams isn’t good enough to be one of the top three targets in the Cowboys pass offense, but much like Mohamed Sanu last year, he’s probably good enough to get a free agent contract to start somewhere else in a thinner pass offense next year. Butler is also a free agent and he has impressed with his size and ball skills at times. He should be cheaper and the Cowboys are familiar with his talents. If the Cowboys don’t re-sign Butler, he should get a shot at a larger role elsewhere.
Damien Williams, RB, MIA - Williams is nondescript talent, but he runs hard and he’s a competent receiver. The Dolphins have a tough schedule left against the run, but Adam Gase seems slavishly committed to the run, and the way his offensive line is playing, why shouldn’t he feel that way. Williams isn’t though of as one of the key handcuffs to carry down the stretch, but as we emerge from the bye week gauntlet and go into playoff mode on our rosters, he is the biggest share of a successful and clear run-heavy backup running back spot, and worth an end of the roster add if you can manage it.
Philip Rivers, QB, Tyrell Williams, WR, Antonio Gates, TE, SD - Just another reminder that the Chargers have Tampa, Carolina, Oakland, and Cleveland from Weeks 13-16. All four of them are bottom ten in passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed. Rivers’ value has been ridiculously durable despite multiple big losses in the passing game, and he and the team will get a coveted week of rest in Week 11. Antonio Gates is only halfway to the eight scores the team wants to get him so he can pass Tony Gonzalez as the all-time tight end touchdown leader.
J.J. Nelson, WR, ARI - Just another reminder that Nelson is being underestimated because of his size and limited history. He will get an opportunity to have a big share of a passing game that can take advantage of matchups like Atlanta, Washington, Miami, and New Orleans Weeks 12-15.
Todd Gurley, RB, LA - He’s purely a luxury item, and his value could bottom out after a tough matchup against the Jets this week, but keep in mind that Gurley gets the foolproof running back matchup of San Francisco in championship week 16. His owners are probably sick of him and you might be surprised how cheap he could come in a trade. It might be better to wait until next week if your trade deadline is Week 11, but if not, do a price check on Gurley this week.
Sell High
TY Hilton, WR, IND - Hilton will be rested coming out of the bye and the promise of a second half that matches his sometimes explosive first half is enticing. The problem is that all three of his big games came with Donte Moncrief on the bench, and Jack Doyle has also emerged as the season has gone on. Dwayne Allen should be healthier to share more targets. To top it off, the Colts face the tough Texans and Vikings pass defenses in Weeks 14 and 15. If you can get WR1 value for Hilton and have a surplus of wide receiver value, use him to bolster a weaker position.
Blake Bortles, QB, JAX - Now that he has the appearance of some value in our lineups, it’s time sell Bortles for whatever you can get, especially in dynasty. The Denver, Minnesota, Houston trio coming up in Weeks 13-15 could break him for good. His numbers are up over the last two games, but his play is still mostly that of a quarterback who should be below the Fitzpatrick line - only a starter when Plan A goes awry.
Demarco Murray, RB, TEN - You just get the feeling the other shoe is going to drop with Murray any day now. His toe injury and usage suggest a possible breakdown, if not dropoff in production. In multiple games this year, he has been stuck in a terrible game script for running back value, but somehow put up RB1 numbers with increased passing game usage. Murray has a somewhat favorable schedule and could keep it going, but if the “elite RB1” value has set and you can deal him because you hit on a waiver pickup like Jay Ajayi or Jordan Howard, getting out of your position on Murray could pay off. Don’t overlook Antonio Andrews on the waiver wire in deep leagues because he’s the next man up right now, and he matches the exotic smashmouth philosophy.
Tim Hightower, RB, NO - Just like last year, Hightower has gotten hot in fantasy lineups with pure volume-based plays. Unlike last year, Mark Ingram is still healthy and unlike earlier this year, Ingram is running hot. The Saints have a potentially good matchup against the run this week, but after that things tighten up. Don’t be reluctant to part with him in a redraft deal and get anything you can in dynasty.