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Davante Adams' stock is skyrocketing.
The Green Bay Packers wide receiver is expected to be the main benefactor from Jordy Nelson's absence. Nelson tore his ACL against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, ruling him out for the season. Nelson's place in the Packers' three receiver sets will be filled by Ty Montgomery, but it's Adams who should gain the greater share of his targets. Adams and Randall Cobb will be Aaron Rodgers' primary targets.
As a rookie, Adams caught 38 passes for 446 yards and three touchdowns during the regular season. He was the third option behind Nelson and Cobb, though he didn't enter the season in that spot, taking time to take Jarrett Boykin's spot away from him. There are negatives and positives to being the third receiver in Rodgers' passing attack. He received less attention and more favorable matchups against defenders because of Cobb and Nelson drawing coverage, but also saw fewer targets because of it.
With Nelson out, the question becomes if Adams will be more productive with more targets but with more attention. Does he have the skill set to be an efficient outside starter as a full-time focal point of the offense.
Nelson could definitely do that. When healthy, he is one of the best receivers in the NFL. A player with a broad skill set and the ability to dominate opponents in different ways in different situations. It was very difficult to press Nelson because of his size, strength and quickness to beat defensive backs off the line of scrimmage. While Adams' skill set is plateaued, it's nowhere close to what Nelson's is. That's a major concern because it appears that Adams lacks one or two exceptional traits to rely on. When you're an outside starter and a focal point of the offense, you can't afford to only produce in favorable situations.
Last year, Adams didn't only produce in favorable situations, but an overwhelming majority of his production came too easily.
Including the regular season and the post season, Adams caught 45 passes last season. Those 45 passes went for 562 yards and three touchdowns. Of those 45, an incredible 34 came against off coverage. Those 34 receptions accounted for 382 of his 562 yards. Without Nelson on the field, Adams is going to be forced to make more plays against press coverage on a more regular basis. Even though he had a number of impressive plays against press coverage last year, his skill set suggests that's not going to be sustainable.
There were many examples of Adams struggling to deal with press coverage last season. This one against the Miami Dolphins was arguably the most concerning.
Adams is lined up alone to the right of the offense. He is being pressed at the line by Cortland Finnegan. Finnegan is a player who was once a tenacious, intimidating cornerback, but last season he was on the brink of retirement. His athleticism had been completely sapped to the point that he was struggling to keep pace with receivers of even average speed. Finnegan doesn't do anything exceptional on the play, Adams simply runs a very poor route and lacks the physical tools to take advantage of the weaker Finnegan.
He makes two key movements on the route to try and get inside of Finnegan and create separation for Rodgers to throw him the ball.
The first comes at the line of scrimmage. He plants his outside foot towards the sideline, but Finnegan never even looks at it. Instead, Finnegan is focused on his upper body, where Adams has failed to do anything deceiving. Adams' upper body stayed centered on the cornerback. He didn't step outside with his planted foot to force the defensive back to turn. He didn't even use a hand motion or head fake to distract the defender before turning back infield.
Even for Finnegan, this was a simple release effort to react to. Adams wasn't anywhere close to aggressive enough. This kind of feeble motion against the more aggressive, bigger outside cornerbacks in the NFL would see Adams completely taken out of his route before he even advanced away from the line of scrimmage.
With Finnegan sticking to Adams through his release, the receiver attempts to create separation in the next stage of his route. He has inside position, so he attempts to take a hard step into the chest of the defensive back. A hard step would force the cornerback to push backwards toward the sideline, giving Adams a chance to angle back infield away from him. Once again, Adams shows off a lack of aggressiveness, simply planting his foot but not truly extending it into Finnegan.
This timid approach compounds his lack of strength to brush Finnegan away from his upper body as he goes.
Adams doesn't play with strength through his routes. He may be well built and physically strong, but his balance and aggressiveness are lacking to allow him to take advantage of that while working on the field. He has good ball skills to make plays on the ball, so those are likely his greatest strength. While his ball skills are good, his hands aren't as reliable as advertised. He failed at the catch point eight times last year on just 53 catchable targets. He failed at the catch point more often than he broke a tackle.
In the playoff game against the Dallas Cowboys, Adams had his best game of the year. He broke five tackles in that game alone. Unfortunately, he only broke seven on the season as a whole. Broken tackles include plays where he evaded defenders in space, not just tackle attempts that were overpowered. Particularly early in the season, Adams was give the ball in space with time to beat a defender in a one-on-one situation a lot last year. Therefore, his numbers breaking tackles were very concerning.
They highlight his lack of overall speed(quickness, acceleration and long speed), something that also shows up when he faces press coverage.
On this play, Adams gets to face Cary Williams of the Philadelphia Eagles. Williams plays a lot of press coverage, but he was one of the worst starting cornerbacks in the NFL last year. Adams' route is good enough to create space on the outside. His double move puts him on Williams' outside shoulder with the defensive back working hard to recover position. Although Adams is able to get on top of him, he lacks a second gear to run underneath Matt Flynn's pass.
The ball hung in the air for a long time, but Adams could only clutch at it below his knees as he desperately tried to pull it in. His lack of speed cost him a catch here, but it also costs him yards after the catch even when not confronted by a defender.
On this play against the New England Patriots, Adams is able to catch the ball down the sideline, but he can't pull away from Logan Ryan despite having a head start and catching the ball in stride. He ran a solid route to get open, but in truth the situation sprung him free more than Adams himself did. It was 3rd-and-2, so when Adams ran to the outside, Ryan looked back at the quarterback expecting a quick throw. He wasn't even looking at Adams when the receiver turned upfield.
A receiver with even average long speed would have expected to carry this ball all the way to the end zone. Adams didn't and he wasn't even aggressive in pursuit of that when he caught the ball, instead looking back to see how close Ryan was to him. Ryan isn't a slow cornerback, but he's not a burner either.
Adams isn't necessarily a bad receiver, but there is nothing special about him and his all-around game isn't elevated enough to be considered a quality starter. He definitely won't simply step in and absorb Jordy Nelson's production. The gap between the two players' skill sets is too great. Of course, playing with Aaron Rodgers will still make him a productive player, but being a receiver who is more dependant on situation and coverage mistakes than his own ability means he's less safe a bet than other starters across the league.
In MFL 10 drafts, Adams went as high as the fourth and fifth round. Expectations for him are bloated passed what his skill set as an individual suggests it should be. As such, he should be sold high instead of retained for good, but not great production.