Player Spotlight: EJ Manuel

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This Spotlight was written by guest writer Nathan Miller.  Nathan can be followed on Twitter @Revel_Nathan.  His work can also be found at The Fake Football and Revelation Sports.

Manuel Labor

Buffalo shook the draft world last year when they stepped up to select EJ Manuel as the first QB off the board in the 2013 Draft. The move echoed the unpredictability of the draft, as well as Manuel’s up-and-down rookie season.

Accuracy and his ability to read a defense were primary concerns for Manuel heading into his rookie season. In the end, those issues weren’t the focal point last season. Instead, a preseason knee surgery and subsequent time missed during his rookie campaign garnered the most attention. The good news here is that there is not a recurring knee condition to worry about at this point, and while he had missed collegiate time due to injury, it was minimal and not a lingering issue.

Volumizing – Rinse and Repeat

As with any position, volume of opportunity is a large part of a quarterback’s success. The fact that Buffalo quietly ran one of the faster-paced offenses last season is something to take note of. Sneaking in at #3 in plays per game, the Bills ran 69.8 plays a game (peaking in Games 3 and 4 with 87 and 85 plays, respectively). While many will point to the high volume rushing attack, the Bills managed to stay well-balanced and passed 32.6 times per game, or 47% of plays from scrimmage. While those aren’t “my arm is falling off” numbers for a quarterback, they are consistent and present continued opportunity.

Lathering the situation a bit more is news that OC Nathaniel Hackett and his coaching staff were frustrated that injuries forced the team to slow down the pace. “We should’ve ran more,” said Hackett’s when reminded that the Bills finished third in plays per game during the season.

We’re Gonna Need a Bigger Boat

The play of Buffalo’s offensive line diminished during the season. While the line graded out in the top third of the league, new schemes and injuries reduced the efficiency. Buffalo took note by spending four draft picks and bringing in veteran help in free agency to beef up their line, with a focus on size.
That being said, Manuel has had a tendency to react poorly to pressure, and crouch or scurry instead of stepping into and standing tall in the pocket. This was a concern coming out of college and while he has shown improvement, he must continue to develop in this area.

Load Up

Last season Buffalo struggled with tools on offense. Stevie Johnson again dealt with groin and lower body aches while rookies Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin took time adapting to the speed of the league. Buffalo has arguably one of the better RB tandems in the league, but injuries also affected C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson throughout much of 2013.

The Bills clearly sought to improve depth at both receiver and running back. After trading oft-injured Stevie Johnson to San Francisco, Buffalo brought in veteran Mike Williams and drafted Sammy Watkins to shore up their WR corp. The team traded for RB Bryce Brown, too. Offseason reports of Manuel and Watkins’ chemistry indicate expected growing pains, but the overall sense is that Watkins will be well worth the cost Buffalo sacrificed to acquire him in this year’s draft.

An overview of the offense shows much to like:

• Sammy Watkins – A yards-after-catch monster with an elite pedigree. With an average pass in 2013 traveling just 4.7 yards downfield, Watkins finished the season with 1,464 yards and 12 touchdowns averaging over 10 yards after the catch on non-screen plays alone.
• Robert Woods – Regarded by many as the most pro-ready WR in last year’s draft class, Woods showed much promise last season. Averaging nearly 15 yards/reception, Woods is a competent receiver alongside Watkins.
• Mike Williams – Losing some luster after a hamstring injury and off-field issues, it’s important to recall that in his first three seasons as a professional, Williams didn’t miss a game and averaged fantasy WR2 output.
• Although about as unsexy as they come in regard to tight ends, Scott Chandler has consistently put up high TE2 numbers, and the trio of Spiller/Jackson/Brown gives this offense a back-end threat that will be more than competitive.

Statistically Speaking

Seeing action in 10 games last season, Manuel gave us a good baseline to work with. Carrying a collegiate completion percentage of nearly 67%, there was a drop-off in production in Buffalo. A new system and personnel are partly to blame, but deficiencies in fundamentals continued to show up on game day. However, bias can affect our perception of Manuel and his efficacy going forward.

Comparatively speaking, when one looks at historical numbers we get a sense of Manuel and his future while addressing his accuracy. A query reveals that Manuel fared well among starting rookie quarterbacks that attempted at least 200 passes during their inaugural season. Among 120 rookies going back to 1939 that met the criteria, Manuel finished 14th in completion percentage. While there is certainly more to evaluating a quarterback’s future than completion percentage, it’s a good starting point to evaluating the overall skill set, while also recognizing that one of Manuel’s collegiate strengths was his deep ball.

Given that Manuel has not been graced with the “injury prone” label thus far, one can expect that he will be able to endure a full docket of games going forward. Prorating his 2013 performance over a full season, Manuel would have finished as QB21.

While not “I’m going to Disneyland“ numbers for a fantasy championship, rookie quarterbacks have not typically fallen into that category. Analogously, another look to the past puts Manuel in good company when looking at full season numbers alongside other signal callers in his position (Pass Attempts > 450, Completion % > 58). These again are numbers that align with QB2 expectations, and is not a shabby list of performers.

Finally, taking a look at the Buffalo offense and the system they want to run, we can compute Manuel’s numbers playing a full season and easily slot him as a QB2 with notable upside in a still developing offense.

Run, Forest, Run...

The blessing of a dual-threat QB is their ability to smooth inconsistent performances with their rushing numbers – which generally carry more value (per touch) than passing numbers. While not as nimble as others, Manuel’s size and athletic prowess cushion his week-to-week output with the potential for rushing yardage or scores. The baseline for Manuel in 2013 was an extra three points per game on rushing alone (or 49 added points over the course of a season), and it’s not unrealistic to expect these numbers to increase with an expanded playbook, comfort in the offense, and additional weapons to clear lanes.

Positives

• Fast tempo offense that will again lead the lead in plays run from scrimmage.
• An underrated but extremely potent arsenal of weapons.
• Friendly schedule for the QB, WR, and TE positions.
• Better than advertised play, and great potential in the Buffalo offense.
• A fierce competitor than has battled through injuries and personal strife to play on game day.

Negatives

• Struggles with moments of fog and inaccuracy, especially with short to intermediate throws (which is Watkins sweet spot). 
• Fundamentals need polishing to establish him as a weekly option.
• A very talented but extremely young core group of WRs.
• A team that leans slightly more on the run in offensive scheming.

Final Thoughts

At this point in his career, EJ Manuel is a QB2. Looking forward, with the disposition of the coaching game plan and additions on offense, Manuel could flirt with QB1 numbers in dynasty leagues with the prevailing hindrance being the sheer depth of quality starters at the QB position. Buffalo’s generous schedule, the blatant depth of talent, and volume of opportunities will likely see Manuel finish 60-70% of his games with quality start or QB1 numbers. With an ADP as the 27th QB off the board, Manuel is a prime candidate for QBBC teams, managers seeking a late option to shore up their depth, and dynasty league owners looking to the future.

Projections

Other Viewpoints From Around the Web

Marc Sessler, Around the League writer on NFL.com
Manuel's rookie outing was a collage of inconsistency marred by injury. He told NFL Network that he's learned to "be smart when I take off with the football" after losing four weeks last season to a sprained LCL suffered on a scramble against the Browns in Week 5.

Even with the presence of exciting rookie pass-catcher Sammy Watkins, we expect the Bills to go after teams on the ground. The trio of Spiller, Fred Jackson and Bryce Brown form one of the league's top stable of backs.

Still, Buffalo needs Manuel to improve as a passer. Offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett vowed in June that his quarterback would be used to the hilt in the team's fast-paced, no-huddle attack after spending last season with a stripped-down version of the playbook.

Mark Gaughan, Buffalo News sports reporter on BuffaloNews.com
EJ Manuel completed 58.8 percent of his passes last season. The league average was 61.2. He was a league-worst 47.5 percent on third downs. That’s not a shock for a rookie. He needs to take a good step forward. Familiarity with coordinator Nate Hackett’s system should be a huge help. To get in better synch with the QB’s footwork, the coaches have the receivers determining the depth of their timing routes by the number of steps they take, not just their depth in yards. When the pocket is clean, watch for Manuel’s ball placement. Quality offenses don’t let the ball hit the ground much in practice. Another good sign in camp would be Manuel making quick decisions with the ball.

“He has put in a lot of work,” said coach Doug Marrone. “He has a much, much better understanding. … There are a lot of things that are going on that you get excited about, and we have to carry that on and do that when the preseason comes.”

Jamey Eisenberg, Senior Fantasy Writer on CBSSports.com
The Bills made a power move during the NFL Draft when they mortgaged the future to trade up to select receiver Sammy Watkins at No. 4 overall. We're going to find out right away if he's worth it.

Buffalo then sent Steve Johnson to San Francisco, so this passing attack will have a dramatically different look to it this season than it did in 2013. The key, however, remains the growth of quarterback EJ Manuel, and we hope he has a better sophomore campaign than what he showed as a rookie.

Manuel had trouble staying healthy, missing six games due to knee problems, and he finished with five games with 20-plus Fantasy points in a standard league and five games with 16 points or fewer. In other words, when he was good, he was a serviceable, and when he was bad, he was putrid.

Now, no one is drafting Manuel as anything more than a No. 2 quarterback in the deepest of leagues, but if Fantasy owners want to consider Watkins or even Robert Woods and Mike Williams as potential starting options, then Manuel has to step up his performance. He is someone to watch in the preseason for sure.

And you can figure that if Manuel is playing well then C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson also have the chance for quality production, so here's hoping we get a breakout performance from Manuel in 2014.