Here at Football Guys, I’ll use my methodology for evaluating wide receivers, Reception Perception, in order to look for clues about a wide receiver’s fantasy value. We’ll examine players to buy or sell, and check in on the progress of young dynasty assets. In this edition, we’ll look into the somewhat shocking ascension of Brian Quick to fantasy relevance.
The Rams passing game has been a wasteland for fantasy relevance over the course of several seasons. Not since the days of Torrey Holy and Isaac Bruce have we had a consistent productive receiver come out of St. Louis.
That isn’t due to a lack of trying on the Rams’ end, as they have attempted multiple times to draft a new young threat. They regularly went to the mid-round well and landed Austin Pettis, Chris Givens, Greg Salas and Stedman Bailey. The big move was trading into the top-10 pick of the 2013 draft to acquire Tavon Austin. To this point, none of those prospects have made a significant, consistent impact. Prior to the start of the 2014 season Brian Quick, the Rams 2012 second round pick, would have fit into that group. However, with three weeks of this new season gone by, it appears Quick has separated from the pack.
Through three weeks, Brian Quick has amassed 16 catches for 235 yards and a touchdown—good for WR2 numbers in PPR leagues. He is also far and away the most targeted wide receiver on the Rams’ roster. Just by perusing the basic stats, it sure looks like Quick has taken the next step. The question is about sustainability. Reception Perception helps answer that quandary.
Alignment Data
Big expectations come when an NFL team drafts a wide receiver in the early rounds that runs a 4.55 40-yard dash, and measures in over 6’3” and 215 pounds. The organization often has their sights set on the prospect becoming their number one receiver. These players are usually the X-receiver in passing games, although that isn’t always the case. The “X” is asked to set up on the line of scrimmage, and out wide from the tight end. They need to break the jam, deal with physical coverage and separate from the best cornerbacks.
Brian Quick is playing the X-receiver role in St. Louis’ offense. He has been on the line of scrimmage for 89.4% of his snaps. Quick alternates between the left and right receiver position, but very rarely plays in the slot—only 2.5% of his snaps.
In the 548 snaps Quick played prior to this year, he did not look capable of filling the lofty expectations the X-receiver assignments ask. He carried over bad habits from college, and generally looked like the raw prospect analysts regarded him as. Thus far through the 2014 season, Quick looks to be much improved.
Route Analysis
One theme that continues to perpetuate through the Reception Perception studies is the high frequency of nine routes for the high-end NFL receivers. This makes sense on multiple levels. Sending a receiver on a go route clears things out for the rest of the offense. Defenders have to account for their presence as a threat down the field, allowing other players to get open underneath. Teams also like the idea of sending their best players deep on the chance that the play is successful. They can trust these guys to handle the tough catches. In that light, Quick’s 30.1% nine-route frequency figure (while very high) makes some sense.
It’s more important to look at the other routes with a high and low percentage figures when assessing Quick. It’s rather interesting that he ran a strikingly low amount of dig routes, outs and flats. The Rams are not looking to involve him much around the sidelines; Quick usually heads towards the middle of the field. Of the 83 routes Quick has run in the first three weeks of the season, 18.1% have been posts, 14.5% slants and 13.3% curls. All of these routes allow Quick to use his speed to separate from defenders, and his big body to shield the ball from them.
(SRVC denotes success rate versus coverage for each route. PTS indicates how many PPR fantasy points a receiver earned on each particular route)
The lowest SRVC figure on Quick’s result chart corresponds to the pattern he ran with the most frequency—the nine-route. He only beat defenders on these routes 40% of the time. However, as I mentioned is customary, it appears Quick is not always involved in the play on these routes. His 12.1 PPR points recorded on nine routes all came on one play, the 51-yard touchdown in Week 3. So you can’t ding Quick too much for the low SRVC on his most frequently run route.
The other takeaways from the Route Result Chart better exemplify how this young player is improving. Quick does not have an SRVC score below 50% on any of his other patterns. He’s showing versatility as a route runner, and can get open regardless of the assignment. It’s also encouraging that on two of the other routes Quick runs often, the slant and curl, he posts insanely high SRVC figures above 90%. The slant and curl are Quick best routes as this point, as he is usually is open throughout them. Its no coincidence that he has a good PPR point total associated with those patterns as well.
It was also nice to see Quick score an 83.3% SRVC on his “other” routes. One of the ways a route gets classified as “other” under Reception Perception is if the receiver must improvise, and break off the assignment. Quick had to do this several times, and did so with success. That shows that he’s improving as an instinctual player on the football field. That is a significant development, given that he came from an unheralded college program.
The steps Quick has taken earned him the trust of his teammates, and the Rams’ coaches. As such, he’s grown to be a featured part of the passing offense:
Brian Quick is the centerpiece of the Rams air game. When he is on the field, he is the preferred target and looked at as a number one receiver. The St. Louis quarterbacks targeted Quick on 26.5% of the routes he ran from Weeks 1-3. For comparison’s sake, Jordy Nelson was targeted on 21.2% of the routes he ran throughout his 2013 sampled games. Quick is making good on the faith the team shows him. He’s coming down with the vast majority of his targets, and has only dropped one pass.
Success Rate Versus Coverage data
A deeper look at Brian Quick’s SRVC data is consistent with high-end wide receiver performances. He’s maintained positive success rates against both man and zone coverage. Quick has the physical ability to separate from man coverage, and has developed the intelligence needed to get free in zones.
Quick is producing not just due to the high volume he sees in St. Louis, but because he is getting open. Trust and development have created a clear top target in this offense.
Where he still can improve
Through the Reception Perception charting of Weeks 1-3, there were two persistent issues for Quick. Primarily he does not seem to create or function well after the catch:
Quick had 10 open field attempts during the course of these games. These situations are defined as a play where the receiver has a reasonable shot to beat a defender in space by breaking their tackle attempt. Quick was very inefficient in those attempts, and was dropped on first contact 80% of the time.
Especially through the first two games, Quick struggled to get off the line with urgency. He was a bit slow, and lumbering when get out of his stance. However, on his long scoring reception against the Cowboys, and several other plays, he did show initial burst and torched the opposing cornerback. That should give hope that Quick can still get better in this regard.
Going Forward
After Alshon Jeffery stormed the league, it seems most observers now expect receivers to breakout in their second year. Yet, the third season used to be the prime time for a pass catcher to ascend to stardom. It appears Brian Quick is falling into the latter category. Far too many people overlooked, and forgot about Quick even though he was only entering his third season. The growth was a tad slower due to his lower level college background, and there were certainly rough NFL moments, but all that is behind us.
The future is what matters for Brian Quick and his fantasy owners. A number one receiver in a viable offense usually signals at least WR2 value. Expect Quick to produce those sorts of numbers. The Rams offense is by no means a top-5 unit, but all indications are that Austin Davis is just good enough to keep the ship afloat. Just because you did not see it coming, doesn’t mean it isn’t happening.
Quick’s seasonal value looks to be very good for 2014. He might not be a weekly, no-brainer start. But since you likely acquired him off waivers, odds are you won’t require that. What he does present is an excellent bye-week or bad matchup fill in for another receiver, and a steady FLEX option. Quick’s skill and passing volume indicate that he can be a weekly starting option, if you need one.
As a dynasty asset, you are staring at the last realistic moments to ever buy Brian Quick below his true value. If his current owner in your league believes his 2014 start is not a true indication of his value, you have a small window to jump through. As Reception Perception showed you, this nice performance does not look like a fluke. You need to make it a priority to send out trade offers for Quick, and try to put him on your roster. While it’s now his third season, Brian Quick is just beginning to write his story.
