In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll fade some big names -- yes, even ones that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at nine players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In), four that don't hit quite right (the Out), and an Outlier of the Week.
First, let me stress: If any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
This is where we review my previous week's results. With the NFL's variance battling me every step of the way, my pursuit of the elusive .500 mark has been challenging. But things have been looking up in recent weeks, with Week 14 being another in the big-picture win column. Let's review:
- I was in on Jets QB Tyrod Taylor, who had a not-daunting matchup against the Dolphins coming off a solid performance in Week 13. I felt he had QB1 upside, but my prediction was he'd outperform his QB16 projection. But a groin injury ended his day after six snaps. Taylor finished as QB37 with -1.8 points. Bleh. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes II in a tough matchup against the Texans. With his offensive line down three starters going into this one, I felt Mahomes wouldn't hit his QB5 projection. He finished as QB25 with just 5.3 points. A hit. ✅
- I was in on Broncos RB RJ Harvey, who continued to make good on Sean Payton's belief in him. The rookie was projected to finish as RB16. I predicted he would outperform that finish, and Harvey wound up as RB4 on the week. A hit. ✅
- I was out on Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty, who faced a tough Denver defense in that same game. He was projected to finish as RB6. That was a bit rich for me. I predicted the first-round pick would fall outside the top 10 in this one. He finished as RB42 with just 5.8 points. Another hit. ✅
- I was in on Saints WR Devaughn Vele, who was projected to finish as WR37 in Tampa Bay. I loved the matchup and the anticipated volume. Tyler Shough finished the week as QB6, but he did the heavy lifting with his legs. I predicted Vele would easily hit WR3 territory. The volume never materialized, and Vele finished as WR43. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka, who was projected to finish as WR15 against the Saints. I cited his ongoing struggles as reason enough to believe the rookie would finish outside the top 20. He obliged. In fact, Egbuka closed out the week as WR70 with 3.5 points. A hit. ✅
- I was in on Falcons TE Kyle Pitts Sr., who was going up against a Seattle defense that's been tough against every position but his. Pitts was projected to finish as TE10. I predicted he'd top that projection. Pitts finished the week as TE6 with 15 points. A hit. ✅
- I was out on Chargers TE Oronde Gadsden, who went into a challenging matchup against the Eagles with his quarterback, Justin Herbert, a week removed from having surgery on his left hand. It seemed like a recipe for disaster. Gadsden was projected to finish as TE12. I was confident he would fall short of that. He finished as TE52. A hit. ✅
- As for my Outlier of the Week, Broncos WR Pat Bryant was projected to finish as WR45, but with an increasing role in the Denver offense and a favorable matchup, I predicted the rookie would finish in WR3 territory. He got the playing time -- Bryant's 35 snaps were second only to Courtland Sutton at the position -- but the targets and production didn't follow. Bryant finished as WR40. A miss. ❌
That's right, it was my fourth-straight winning week and my third six-hit effort in those four weeks. Would it have been great to hit seven picks for the first time this season? Sure, but it wasn't to be, and I have nobody to blame but myself, Taylor's tender groin, Shough's success running the ball, and Bo Nix for targeting 11 different receivers.
Here's where we stand after 14 weeks:
Week 14: 6 hits; 3 misses.
Season: 64 hits; 62 misses.
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to hit .500 on my predictions. With four-straight winning weeks, I've reached the promised land! Let's see if I can reset expectations and move further past .500 in Week 15.
One more time: I'm taking chances and painting outside the lines here. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Quarterback
In: Brock Purdy, San Francisco vs. Tennessee
It's easy to overlook Purdy, who has delivered a mixed bag of performances -- five of them to be exact -- after missing eight games with a toe injury.
His best game came against the Cardinals in Week 11. Purdy only totaled 200 passing yards, but he threw three touchdown passes, zero interceptions, led the offense to 41 points, and the team won.
The result was 19.3 fantasy points, and Purdy's only finish inside the top 10 all season. In fact, it was his only QB1 performance this year.
Purdy followed that up with his worst outing of the season, a 193-yard, one-touchdown, three-interception dud on the Monday Night Football stage in Week 12. He finished that game as QB24 with 7.3 fantasy points.
We have a good understanding of the range of outcomes here, but it's possible we haven't seen the ceiling yet.
Against the Browns in Week 13, Purdy looked his most mobile since returning from his lengthy turf toe injury. According to 49ersWebZone's David Bonilla, Purdy's performance in that game signaled that he has put the toe behind him and is no longer thinking about it when he's on the field.
It also showed that head coach Kyle Shanahan is not limiting the playbook to protect his quarterback.
"We haven't held anything out," Shanahan said on Wednesday. "Once he's come back, especially halfway through that first game, [against] Arizona, I asked him after that game about his toe, on Monday, and I got such good answers. And he looked that way all week, so I haven't asked him about his toe since."
Purdy scored 17.1 points against a strong Browns defense, and this week he gets a matchup with the Titans, in what ESPN.com's Tristan Cockcroft characterized as "his softest yet."
Footballguy Devin Knotts agrees, noting in his Week 15 Passing Matchups that "Tennessee simply cannot find a consistent solution against opposing passing games."
In their four games since their Week 10 bye, they've surrendered 87.3 fantasy points combined (21.7 per game) to Davis Mills, Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence, and Shedeur Sanders.
According to Knotts, last week's performance against the Browns was particularly alarming as Sanders, who had stepped into a difficult situation, looked completely comfortable while throwing for 364 yards and three touchdowns.
Adding to the positives here, Purdy will have his full arsenal of weapons for this one: Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, and Ricky Pearsall.
As Knotts summed up, "The 49ers have no shortage of ways to stress coverage."
Bottom line: Purdy's Footballguys projection calls for a QB12 finish (with 18.7 points). I'm looking for something closer to what we saw against the Cardinals, a finish inside the top 10.
Out: Dak Prescott, Dallas vs. Minnesota
Heading into the final four games of the season, the Cowboys sit at 6-6-1 with four games remaining, and a difficult road ahead of them to reach the postseason. While part of the process requires hoping they get some help, the first step towards the playoffs is handling their own business.
That begins on Sunday night against the Minnesota Vikings.
For Prescott and the offense, that means going up against defensive coordinator Brian Flores, whose defense has the highest blitz rate in the NFL this season.
As Knotts noted, since Week 7, Flores' defense has been as effective as any in football. They faced Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, Sam Darnold, and Jayden Daniels during that stretch, and that group combined to average only 175 yards at 6.4 yards per attempt with just six total touchdown passes.
Over the last five weeks, Minnesota held Jackson, Williams, Love, Darnold, and Daniels to a combined 39.8 points -- or an average of 8 points.
On the season, the Vikings have allowed the third-fewest points (13.3) per game to enemy field generals.
Prescott has great weapons in CeeDee Lamb, who was cleared from the concussion protocol on Friday, George Pickens, and Ryan Flournoy, who rose to the occasion with a WR5 overall performance after Lamb was concussed last week. But Minnesota has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game (24.5) to opposing wideouts.
They're a little more generous to opposing tight ends, but Cowboys starter Jake Ferguson is questionable with a calf injury.
Prescott has exceeded 20 fantasy points eight times this season. He's also been held to single digits twice, against Philadelphia in Week 1 and, more recently, by Denver in Week 8.
Even if Prescott remains a locked-in starter in single-QB leagues, expecting him to hit the high end of his range of outcomes is a reach.
Bottom line: Prescott's QB5, 20.1-point Footballguys projection isn't out of line given his high-level production this season, but the matchup concerns me. I predict Prescott won't hit that number.
Running Back
In: Devin Neal, New Orleans vs. Carolina
With Alvin Kamara missing a second game due to ankle and knee injuries, Neal had his best game as a pro against the Buccaneers last Sunday, rushing for 70 yards and his first career touchdown. He added one catch for 14 yards.
He scored 15.4 fantasy points, good for an RB15 finish.
According to ESPN.com's Katherine Terrell, the emergence of Neal and quarterback Tyler Shough might be the brightest spots for the Saints (3-10) this season. It's a glimpse of what the future could look like on offense in 2026.
But Shough has already seen enough to know what Neal is capable of doing on the field.
"He's one of the best running backs I've ever played with, just from a mindset standpoint, his knowledge of the game. Protections, running the football, getting north and south," Shough said. "He's such a great pass catcher as well."
If volume is the most valuable asset for fantasy running backs, a receiving role is the secret sauce that's likely to lead to greater success.
Against the Bucs, Neal improved his rushing share week-over-week, going from 74 percent to 83 percent. According to Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason, the rookie also ran a route on 75 percent of New Orleans' drop-backs -- a route share hit by Kamara just once this year.
Neal has four catches on four targets in his two starts. But over the last five games, he's pulled in 13 of 15 targets.
With Kamara out again this week, Neal gets a plus matchup against the Panthers. As Sports Illustrated's Michael Fabiano notes, Carolina's defense has allowed the sixth-most points to backs since Week 7, and nine have had 14-plus points against them this year.
Bottom line: Neal's Footballguys projection calls for a RB25 finish (with 13.7 points). I predict he'll finish inside RB2 territory.