The statistics used in this column are those acquired from the Reception Perception methodology for evaluating wide receivers. To see full results of the project’s first full offseason, check out the tables at Backyard Banter. Additionally, use the #ReceptionPerception tag on Twitter to follow all the analysis from the series. Every week at Footballguys I'll profile one receiver whose recent numbers stand out as interesting. If you have a suggestion for the column, file it on Twitter.
Back in June, I looked at the Dolphins wide receiver corps and tried to draw some hard and fast fantasy conclusions for 2015. At the time, it looked like we covered every inch of that pass-catching group. Through two weeks of the 2015 NFL season, that’s proven to be incorrect. You know who wasn’t mentioned a single time in that June post: the current receiving yards and touchdown leader in Miami. Against all odds, its fourth-year seventh rounder, Rishard Matthews, who has paced the Dolphins from a statistical standpoint.
After the Dolphins went out and traded for Kenny Stills, signed Greg Jennings and drafted DeVante Parker, Rishard Matthews packed up his locker and told his agent to demand a release or trade form the team. Matthews grinded through numerous offseasons, practices and even several regular seasons games with the team, and viewed their multiple investments in other wide receivers as a slap in the face.
However, the team never acquiesced to his request, and ignored his mini-holdout, forcing his hand in returning to the team. Lucky for him that he did. When Matthews returned to camp, Stills and Parker both missed extended time, and Matthews was able to get quality reps in with Ryan Tannehill. The Dolphins quarterback has long defaulted to what makes him comfortable, and Matthews’ familiar presence among a sea of change was welcome.
In a “he was here and you just weren’t” harsh reality of the NFL, Matthews earned a fulltime role in the Dolphins offense over Stills or Parker. Through three weeks, he turned his hard offseason work into NFL production, with 262 yard and three touchdowns. He’s popped up on everyone’s radar, as no one had him as the breakout player in a Dolphins pass catching crew that underwent so much offseason turnover.
The evidence is clear after three weeks that Rishard Matthews is a big part of the Miami passing game. Yet, the matter at hand is how we proceed going forward. Using Reception Perception to examine his two 100-plus yard games, we can properly put this early season production boom into context.
Alignment Data
Even way back in the offseason, the only clear construct of the Miami passing game was Jarvis Landry’s role as the high-volume slot receiver. Outside of that, it was anything goes At the time, the smart money was on Stills and his field stretching ability playing the X-receiver role in place of Mike Wallace, and Greg Jennings holding down the fort in the flanker spot until Parker was ready to step in. All of that went down the hatch after a litany of injuries.
While Landry is still secure in his role, none of the other positional projections came to reality with any consistency. Stills floundered in camp, Parker dealt with an injury and Jennings didn’t take hold either. All the while, a motivated Matthews put in the work and ended up earning playing time at all of the receiver spots.
Matthews’ toughness, size and workmen like approach to the receiver position was a big boost to a Dolphins team where the shiny new toys haven’t come through for them. Despite his wishes, Matthews and Miami both benefitted from the organization’s decision not to send him away.
Target data
Rishard Matthews currently ranks inside the top 10 of fantasy points per target among wide receivers with 20 or more targets. He’s been efficient in making the best out of his chances. Which has been a godsend for Miami, because they’ve had to lean on him quite a bit.
Matthews ran 61 pass routes over this two game sample, and he was targeted on 29.5 percent of them. That is a heavy involvement rate in the offense proportionally to how much he was on the field for throwing downs. Number-one and highly productive NFL receivers are typically targeted on 27 percent or more of their routes run. Now, this is not to assert that Matthews is a budding top target, because we’ve seen role players, like John Brown as a rookie, post targets-per-route rates in the 28 percent and better range. All this means is that when he’s on the field, the opportunities are finding their way to Matthews.
As mentioned, he’s been markedly efficient with those chances. Of the 61 routes run over this sample, 19.7 percent of them featured Matthews ending up with a reception. His reliability in the passing game helped him garner so many early looks. He dropped one pass through this two game sample, but overall didn’t display many issues with his hands.
Success Rate Versus Coverage and Route Analysis
We’ve seen him be productive on the NFL field, but Reception Perception seeks deeper answers beyond just “what has happened?” We want to know how the production was amassed, what the player’s quality truly is and most importantly, whether he can sustain what’s been done recently. For that we look at Rishard Matthews on a route-by-route basis.
The highest represented pattern in Matthews’ route tree percentage chart is the nine. It comes off a bit strange. If the Dolphins were searching for a vertical threat, Kenny Stills or DeVante Parker would be the natural choices. Matthews doesn’t carry the same on-field profile, running a 4.62 in the 40-yard dahs while measuring in at 6-foot at his scouting combine workout several years ago.
One thing to keep in mind is that route usage can be affected by game flow, and necessitated to change depending on the team’s need. In the two games charted, Miami was losing, and spent much of the second half in aggressive mode to try and catch up. That could have influenced Matthews 26.2 percent rate of go routes figure.
The rest of his route tree chart indicates that may be the case. No other route truly stands out much with a high usage rate. Miami’s current offensive coordinator, Bill Lazor, is a Chip Kelly disciple after spending his last stop working under the Eagles head coach. He wants to run a similar up-tempo offense, with route concepts that mirror that of Kelly’s famed system. Matthews’ stripped down route tree, with an emphasis on curls, posts and slants looks remarkably similar to what Kelly asked of Riley Cooper two seasons ago. These routes provide simple reads for the quarterback, but add the option of big plays to complement the usual dump offs to an “in space” receiver like Jarvis Landry. Cooper, now exposed for being a below average receiver at best, went on to record over 800 yards and score eight touchdowns in 2013.
We’re left wondering whether Matthews seemingly random rise to productive fantasy asset will go down the same path Cooper traveled. That can be interpreted as a good or bad note too. Cooper had a productive year in Chip Kelly’s first as an NFL head coach, but has floundered in all his chances following. In order to find out which way Matthews is headed, we’ll need to break down his route running even further.
(SRVC denotes success rate versus coverage for each route. PTS indicates how many PPR fantasy points a receiver earned on each particular route)
Our questions about whether Matthews truly was a deep threat receiver get answered. His 43.8 percent SRVC on vertical routes falls below the NFL average. He’s not equipped to be the primary field stretcher in this offense, and while game flow has necessitated his use there, another player would better fill the role.
Elsewhere, none of Matthews’ SRVC scores truly stand out as special, or eye-popping. Outside of screens, flats and improvisational (other) routes, the slant and post are the only relative degree of difficulty patterns where Matthews grades out well. Matthews is a bit of a lumbering player on the football field. he doesn’t have special quickness, or the juice to burn defenders. None of his move are concise or sudden enough to create yards of separation from defenders. However, he’s clearly put in the time to learn the craft of route running during his motivated offseason, and is learning how to use his size advantage better. In that vein, he’s able to dupe defenders by selling shallow routes as verticals, and then cutting inside on the slant. He’s grown adept at time his breaks on post routes to get open as a reasonable intermediate target. While there’s no elite skill in play here, it’s a role that many passing attacks need filled. No one on Miami’s 2014 roster stepped up as a reliable boundary possession receiver, but an improved Matthews as taken the steps needed to shoulder some of that load. Matthews amassed most of his fantasy points on the slant route due to an integration of all those skills and factors.
Despite their need for someone to step up in place of the new additions who are all still currently behind the eight ball, Miami clearly wants someone to boost their aerial assault to the next level. Even though he has a strong stat line to open the season, Reception Perception remains unconvinced Matthews is that player.
Red indicates the figure is below the NFL average, Green is above and Yellow is within one percentage point.
This is where the methodology pokes holes in deceiving numbers. Yes, Matthews amassed strong production to start the season, but it’s clear from a route-to-route basis that he leaves something to be desired. His SRVC against the three represented forms of defense all fall well below the NFL average for the traditional eight-game sample.
Does this mean Matthews is a bad player? It does not at all prognosticate that. In fact, his contested catch data was overwhelmingly positive, and reveal what a strong asset in traffic he’s become:
When Matthews had the chance to make a contested catch, he far more often than not cleaned up on the play. He posted an 80 percent contested catch conversion rate through two games. Even when he’s not open, Matthews can make plays on the ball.
That’s really the theme of what Reception Perception paints in his profile. While Matthews isn’t the type of player to consistently beat defenses with athletic prowess, or give them fits on a down-to-down basis, when you call his number he can come through. He converted most of his targets into receptions, and made plays in difficult contested situations. These are important attributes for a contributor-level NFL receiver. However, superstars differentiate themselves by beating the defense on the vast majority of their routes, and demanding attention even when the play doesn’t go their way. That’s not something we saw from Matthews in this two game sample, despite some beefed up stat sheets.
Going Forward
In many fantasy leagues, most waiver acquisitions are based off point chasing. Even some writer leagues don’t make enough use of the preemptive pickup, and player’s who already boasted stellar prior week stats get scooped up. By that logic, Matthews is long gone.
If you missed out on Rishard Matthews, you may have failed to acquire an asset that could get you through some early season rough paths and even grow into a regular bye week filler. However, there’s no need to sweat too much. Nothing in his Reception Perception sample should lead anyone to conclude this is an emerging superstar. Again, this isn’t to take anything away from Matthews; much credit to him for launching his career to a new level and being a major asset to his struggling NFL team. Yet, there’s reason to question if he can sustain this level of production.
Perhaps the Dolphins see some of the limitations brought to light by Reception Perception and Matthews’ SRVC scores. Despite a big game against the Jaguars, Miami decreased his snap share from 52 to 39 in Week 3. Matthews still produced, but that may be a developing trend. Remember, they invested heavily in other players in the offseason, and we now all to well how that can often be the deciding factor in how paying time is divvied up. A package featuring Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker on the field together was a frequent sight in Week 3, and Matthews wasn’t often a part of those looks. We should expect to see more of those players, especially Parker, as the year wears on. That could come at Matthews’ expense.
The good news is, right now, Parker still looks like Bambi on the ice running his routes. That is to be expected. My draft analysis concluded that Parker would need time to develop quality technique, and he was robbed of a big chunk of that time when he missed most of this offseason with a foot injury. It should take quite some time for Parker to get going, and while he’s still learning on the fly, the offense will need Matthews to produce. Of course, it just takes one big game from Parker to put the veteran on notice, fair or not.
Rishard Matthews is an ascending player, and is no longer a roster bottom feeder. He’s a legitimate NFL contributor with skills to offer his team. However, the odds he sustains his early season production are almost a total zero. Despite a strong early season showing, this situation has already seen it’s best days.