#FFBookie: Breaking the Scoreboard

Ryan Hester's #FFBookie: Breaking the Scoreboard Ryan Hester Published 12/09/2014

Welcome to the Week 14 Review / Week 15 Preview. If you're new here, check out Week 1's introduction.

#FFBookie Matchup Corner

The #FFBookie didn't release any props this week, so we're going to use this space to highlight a couple of Week 15 games that will likely decide some fantasy semifinal matchups or be nice targets in Daily Fantasy leagues for the upcoming week. Obviously, searching for shootouts is a wise strategy, but at this time of year, being able to predict game scripts and target teams out of contention who might be "packing it in" is also important in player evaluation.

Shootout Potential

  • Pittsburgh at Atlanta
  • Dallas at Philadelphia
  • Houston at Indianapolis
  • Denver at San Diego

"Pack it In" Potential

  • New Orleans at Chicago
  • Washington at New York Giants
  • San Francisco at Seattle

Beware that last game, though, as it's the one instance where a team giving up could lead to a fantasy-unfriendly game script and potentially another Seattle win along the lines of the first meeting (which ended 19-3).

primetime recap

This Week's Three Studs of Primetime:

  1. Julian Edelman
  2. Jordy Nelson
  3. Julio Jones

This Week's Three Duds of Primetime:

  1. Ryan Mathews
  2. Philip Rivers
  3. Keenan Allen

The second half of Monday Night Football sealed the deal that absolutely no one from that game was going to appear on the second list. Not having anyone in that game must have been quite demoralizing for anyone in their fantasy playoffs.

last week at the "book"

This week, I volunteered to do some "all week" #FFBookie action instead of the player props I had been doing the last few weeks. Below is one of the few I did. This reader was a big favorite...

...but we didn't think he was so big a favorite that he would've won with just Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.

Close Call of the Week

The fantasy playoffs generally lead to close matchups, so a -225 favorite heading into Monday Night Football was one of the more lopsided contests the #FFBookie saw. However, a wild game made this one too close for comfort.

Thankfully for @Fitz_843, he held on to win.

Tough Break of the Week

As part of the week-long bets this week, I was telling folks that if they had a particularly bad beat to let me know. It's unfortunate for them, but it helps the column. Here's a bad beat, as told by a few tweets. First, here's the matchup:

Then, things were going well all the way through the first half of Monday Night Football.

Unfortunately, however, they played then second half.

See-Saw Battle of the Week

This reader, @CuriousBigDaddy (the #FFBookie isn't at all curious about the story behind that twitter handle), gave me a prop before Sunday Night Football, updated it before Monday Night Football, and continued to keep me aware of the progress throughout the scoreboard-lighting between Atlanta and Green Bay. First, he was a pretty decent-sized underdog.

But Julian Edelman really changed the game, and a 40% chance to win became 53.5%.

Then the fireworks began.

Unfortunately, the evening ended poorly for "BigDaddy" as Jordy Nelson's touchdown put him in the lead but ultimately meant that Green Bay shut down the passing game thereafter due to lack of need.

looking ahead

Last week, I made the obvious move and selected Jordy Nelson in the section named after him. However, I also said that Green Bay may blow out Atlanta, which would lead to solid production from Eddie Lacy as well. Lacy surpassed each part of the 100+ total yards and a touchdown prediction. I selected Keenan Allen to be the letdown player in the "Romo" section, and that was also a great call as Allen had two catches for a pitiful three yards on just three targets. Darelle Revis is back, folks.

The Jordy Nelson Memorial "You Don't Want to Play Against This Guy" Section

The Vegas over/unders for the games in this week's primetime slate opened at 54.5 and 53.5, respectively. So this section should be easier to pick than the next. Generally, I've picked Nelson and Romo to appear in their associated sections, but Romo has proven me wrong a couple times this year. I think he'll have another nice evening at Philadelphia on Sunday night. I also don't think Cole Beasley will be scoring two touchdowns again, though. It will be Dez Bryant who will come through for his owners in a big way.

Another potential Daily Fantasy sleeper is Chicago's Marquess Wilson. With Brandon Marshall out for the year, Wilson will be a starter on a team that should throw 35+ times against a porous New Orleans defense. Expect Jimmy Graham to get back on track as well. If you own him and are still alive in the playoffs, your team must be pretty darn good. Chicago struggles mightily against tight ends, and New Orleans could over-correct some of their problems on Monday night.

The Tony Romo Memorial "Bright Lights, Dim Fantasy Production" Section

This week's "Romo" section player is likely the next visitor to "Revis Island." In his last two games, Keenan Allen has 17 receptions, 225 yards, and three touchdowns. It's pretty likely that New England's success on defense will be to shut him down and make the other San Diego players beat them. Allen will get back on track in Week 15 against Denver, but hopefully a lackluster Week 14 doesn't eliminate his owners from their playoffs. It's worth noting that Rob Gronkowski was almost the selection here due to San Diego's standing as the third-hardest matchup for opposing tight ends. But touchdown regression is coming for Gronkowski, who hasn't scored in his last two games. 

Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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