Setting The Stage
DeMarco Murray was an All-Conference selection for three consecutive years at Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas, Nevada. He was ranked as a four-star recruit by Rivals coming out of high school and had scholarship offers from schools across the country, including Miami, Texas A&M, Penn State, and Southern California, but chose to attend Oklahoma.
He red-shirted his first year and then played four years for the Sooners between 2007 and 2010. He was more effective running the ball his first two seasons averaging 5.77 ypc, but fell back in his last two years managing only 4.24 ypc. He was an extremely effective receiver with 157 career receptions for 1,571 yards. He was also productive at the goal line, scoring 63 career TDs.
Heading into the 2011 NFL Draft, he was expected by many to start out in the NFL as a change of pace running back, heavily featured in third down situations and used a lot as a receiver. He was drafted in the third round, 71st overall by the Dallas Cowboys and was the sixth running back taken that year, behind Mark Ingram (28th), Ryan Williams (38th), Shane Vereen (56th), Mikel Leshoure (57th), and Daniel Thomas (62nd). Despite Murray’s inability to remain healthy (he has missed 11 games over his first three seasons, he has been by far the most productive running back from the 2011 draft and he ranks 16th overall among running backs in rushing over the past three seasons. The following table provides Murray's career stats.
| Year | Games | Rushes | Yards | ypc | TDs | Targets | Catches | Yards | TDs |
| 2011 | 13 | 163 | 895 | 5.5 | 2 | 35 | 26 | 183 | 0 |
| 2012 | 10 | 161 | 663 | 4.1 | 4 | 41 | 34 | 247 | 0 |
| 2012 | 14 | 217 | 1,124 | 5.2 | 9 | 66 | 53 | 350 | 1 |
| Total | 37 | 541 | 2,682 | 5.0 | 15 | 142 | 113 | 780 | 1 |
Looking FOrward to 2014
The Cowboys hired Bill Callahan as their offensive coordinator in 2012 and he remains in that position for 2014. Cowboy fans hoped that Callahan’s hiring would immediately turn around their offensive line play. There has been improvement, but it has taken more time than the fan base expected. However, the team added Zack Martin, another first round pick this year, the 4th highest offensive lineman selected. If Martin starts at left guard, he will team with All-Pro Tyron Smith and second-year starting center Travis Frederick to form a potentially dominating left side and continue the Cowboys’s overall offensive line improvement.
Scott Linehan has been added to the staff for this year serving as the offensive play caller and passing game coordinator. Linehan has had a lot of success with quarterbacks and Tony Romo should benefit. The Cowboys have historically relied on his passing to lead their offense. Romo has been a consistent productive passer throughout his eight years as their starter. The chart below details the marked reliance on the passing game by the Cowboys over the past five seasons. It should be noted that quarterback sacks are not included so the actual number of passing plays is slightly increased above the numbers in this comparison.
| Year | Rush Plays | Rush % | Pass Plays | Pass % | Total Plays |
| 2009 | 436 | 44.2% | 550 | 55.8% | 986 |
| 2010 | 426 | 42.6% | 575 | 57.4% | 1,001 |
| 2011 | 408 | 41.7% | 570 | 58.3% | 978 |
| 2012 | 355 | 35.0% | 658 | 65.0% | 1,013 |
| 2013 | 336 | 36.4% | 586 | 63.6% | 922 |
| Totals | 1,961 | 40.0% | 2,939 | 60.0% | 4,900 |
Linehan will likely maintain a similar split, relying more on the passing game and if Romo returns from his second back surgery healthy, he could improve his completion percentage back to the upper 60s that he averaged between 2010 and 2012. The combination of an improved offensive line with better passing efficiency should provide DeMarco Murray improved opportunities in the running game. Last season, Murray became the first Cowboy running back since Julius Jones in 2006 to rush for over 1,000 yards
Positives
• Murray has proven effective running the ball with a career 5.0 ypc average
• He is an accomplished receiver with 113 receptions, including 53 last year in only 14 games
• Romo’s improved passing effectiveness should benefit the running game and particularly Murray
• Depth at running back is suspect allowing Murray opportunity to be the bell cow
Negatives
• Traditional passing game focus limits number of carries – Murray has had only three games each in 2012 & 2013 with 20 or more carries
• Murray’s continued inability to remain healthy (missed 11 games in three seasons)
• Potentially poor defense which should force the Cowboys to abandon the running game
Projections
| Name | Games | Rushes | Yards | TDs | Catches | Yards | TDs |
| Dodds | 15 | 225 | 990 | 8 | 43 | 310 | 2 |
| Henry | 15 | 225 | 1,090 | 8 | 56 | 380 | 1 |
| Wood | 16 | 240 | 1,110 | 8 | 45 | 325 | 2 |
| Tremblay | 16 | 219 | 1,105 | 8 | 50 | 365 | 1 |
| Holloway | 15 | 230 | 1,150 | 9 | 52 | 340 | 1 |
Final Thoughts
DeMarco Murray will only make $1.41 Million this year, the last year of his rookie contract. He will be a free agent in 2015 and should understand that another substantial pay-day mandates his best season as a pro. He finished at RB8 in non-ppr scoring and RB6 in ppr scoring last season, even while missing two games. If the Cowboys’ offensive line improves as expected, he should increase his production from a year ago. Potential downside is that he either will continue to miss games or the Cowboys defense will be so bad that the team is forced to abandon the running game at times.
Other Viewpoints
Larry Hartstein on CBSSports.com
Cowboys’ playcaller Scott Linehan said his offensive line is so good, Dallas can run even against stacked fronts, reports the Dallas Morning News.
"This is a great young front," Linehan told the paper. "It was already an offensive line that was really meshing and playing well. We don’t have to have this certain look to run the ball. We feel like we can line up and say, ‘Hey, if they’re going to drop guys into the box, we still feel like we’ve got the guys that can get it done.’ And then that helps everything. That opens everything on the outside of the field."
The Cowboys spent three first-round picks in the last four years on offensive linemen. DeMarco Murray averaged 5.2 yards per carry last season, the highest average of any back who carried at least 120 times.
The Dirty Word’s opinion from the Cowboy’s Spotlight Thread
In 2013, Murray finished 8th amongst NFL RBs in receptions so his multi-dimensionality is amongst the best in the NFL. And in an offense that could wind up passing the ball even more, it’s not beyond the realm of reason that Murray could approach (or exceed) 70 receptions. And it’s these types of easy yards that really put some distance between RBs that are part of the passing game versus ones that aren’t. Also, for the first time in his career, Murray was quite successful at scoring from within the 5 yard line. All of his TD’s in 2013 actually came from within the 10. 23 carries from within the 10 resulted in 9 TD’s (versus 16 carries for 4 TD’s in his two seasons prior). And without a legitimate big back to take snaps away from Murray down by the goal line, I don’t suspect we’ll see a decrease in this workload. Quite frankly, I’m not too certain I wouldn’t take Murray before Eddie Lacy and that’s despite the fact that Scott Linehan is quick to abandon the run game. It’s just that with Murray really being the only viable run game threat in DAL (no offense to Lance Dunbar fans, but his size precludes much of a role beyond 70-75 carries…) I think he’ll be fine FF wise.
koreansteve’s opinion from the Cowboy’s Spotlight Thread
Murray only averaged 15.5 carries/game, getting at least 20 carries only once in the final 11 weeks. 2014 is the last year of his rookie contract. Murray led all RBs (min 50 attempts) in yds/carry against base defenses in 2013.
It seemed that Dallas gave up on the running game way too soon last year. Even when they had the lead, they would have Romo throw it instead of the more sensible call of having Murray run out some clock and hopefully move the chains. It was bizarre at times. Scott Linehan has said he wants to lean more on Murray and the run game. ESPN Dallas has said they expect Murray to set a career-high in carries this year. Beat man Todd Archer expects 250 carries for Murray and for him to play on the majority of the passing downs as well. I'm not sure if I completely believe that and I'm not sure I'm completely sold on him being able to stay mostly healthy during a 250 carry season.
James Brimacombe’s Player Notes
If you had a crystal ball and could predict Murray to stay healthy for all 16 games, you would also have to predict him to be a top 5 fantasy RB. Last year in 13 games he rushed for 1,124 yards, 9 TDs and added another 350 yards and a TD on 53 receptions. When healthy and on the field, Murray is among the elite threats at the position and his 5.2 yards per carry last year is all the proof you need.