The balancing act between absorbing new information and not overreacting is a struggle. We’re so excited for real football that we can end up over our skis on any player showing a pulse. Last year gave us a perfect example of a Week 1 trap.
In Week 1 on 2024, Isaiah Likely dominated in a primetime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. He pulled a team-high 12 targets, catching nine for 111 yards and a touchdown. A sliver of a foot out of bounds robbed him of another would-be touchdown. Even short of the big score, he was the overall TE1 for the week. Meanwhile, Mark Andrews had a meager six yards on one target, finishing as the TE29 that week. The changing of the guard was announced by fantasy analysts everywhere. And the hype train barrelled down the mountain with no breaks. “Should I spend 100% of my FAAB on Likely?”
Fast forward to the end of the regular season, and order was restored. Andrews was the TE5 from Weeks 2-18. Likely was the TE24. Those who paid up for Likely didn’t get anything close to what he did in the season debut.
In hindsight, the obvious context is that Mark Andrews was banged up and had missed most of training camp after a preseason car accident. Likely was an unexpected factor that the Chiefs hadn’t prepared for, which provided the Ravens with an edge against a stout conference foe.
And this year, Hollywood Brown exploded in Week 1 with a 16-target performance from Patrick Mahomes II. Excitement obviously ensued. But closer inspection shows a low-value and unstable role. Many of his targets were quick throws at or behind the line of scrimmage. In fact, seven of his 10 receptions gained seven or fewer yards. His small stature doesn’t allow him to break tackles, making his usage as an after-the-catch outlet a bit head-scratching. Blown coverage allowed him to sneak behind the defense for his lone big play, something that’s tough to rely on.
But it’s explainable. Going into this game, the Chiefs had likely gameplanned to exploit a weak Chargers' linebacking corps with short passes to Xavier Worthy and Brown. But when Worthy was knocked out via friendly fire on his third snap, the team had to adapt. Brown was suddenly in a much larger role than anticipated as the primary weapon. With a week to regroup, that likely won’t be the case. They have other weapons (Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton) that they can use in their game plan.
This isn’t to say that we should ignore everything, either. Baker Mayfield was the QB2 in Week 1 last year. Jayden Daniels was the QB3. Both finished the year as league-winning QB1s. Brock Bowers turned in his first of many top-five performances in Week 1. But adding context is essential.
My goal with this series is to do my best to decipher what’s real from what’s fake. To react in the right direction and fade the noise. After digging into the data and watching every game, I’ll update my Rest-Of-Season Rankings. In this article, I’ll highlight the changes from the previous week. And for players who moved significantly, I’ll add some extra insight.
Let’s dive in, starting with the quarterbacks.
Quarterbacks
There won’t be many significant changes up top. The elite guys mostly looked good. And in the cases of Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes II, I’ll lean on years of excellence over a down game. But new faces in new offenses can often surprise. And slow showings from teams with low expectations shouldn’t be ignored. The guys moving way up the ranks should be picked up and stashed, just in case they become this year’s Baker Mayfield.
- QB1 - Lamar Jackson
- QB2 - Josh Allen
- QB3 - Jayden Daniels
- QB4 - Jalen Hurts
- QB5 - Joe Burrow
- QB6 - Patrick Mahomes II
- QB7 - Justin Fields +1
- QB8 - Kyler Murray -1
- QB9 - Justin Herbert +2 - Herbert looked dominant in a primetime win over the Chiefs. He’s healthier than last year and entering Year 2 of this offense with an improved slew of weapons.
- QB10 - Brock Purdy -1
- QB11 - Baker Mayfield -1
- QB12 - Dak Prescott
- QB13 - Bo Nix
- QB14 - Caleb Williams
- QB15 - Drake Maye
- QB16 - J.J. McCarthy
- QB17 - Jordan Love +2 - Love looked much better after an offseason that allowed for injury recovery. He’s just a couple of years removed from a top-five fantasy finish and looked like his 2023 self.
- QB18 - Trevor Lawrence -1
- QB19 - Jared Goff -1
- QB20 - Daniel Jones +4 - A soft Miami defense may have aided in the shootout, but Jones’ mobility makes him a good fit in Shane Steichen’s offense. Remember when Jones was a top-10 QB a few years back with Darius Slayton, Richie James, and Isaiah Hodgins as his top receivers? Well, this group in Indianapolis has a much higher ceiling.
- QB21 - Cam Ward 0
- QB22 - C.J. Stroud -2
- QB23 - Michael Penix Jr.
- QB24 - Aaron Rodgers +3 - Rodgers looked spry for a soon-to-be 42-year-old and threw for four touchdowns in his Steelers debut. Those waiting for him to fall off the age cliff might have to wait a bit longer.
- QB25 - Bryce Young -3 - Young finished last year red-hot down the stretch, but that didn’t carry over in Week 1. We saw the upside when he was fantasy’s top-scoring quarterback over the final month of last season. But lack of consistency makes it hard to depend on him in anything other than superflex leagues for now.
- QB26 - Sam Darnold -1
- QB27 - Matthew Stafford -1
- QB28 - Geno Smith +1
- QB29 - Spencer Rattler New
- QB30 - Tua Tagovailoa -2
- QB31 - Anthony Richardson Sr. -1
- QB32 - Joe Flacco -1
- QB33 - Jaxson Dart +1
- QB34 - Russell Wilson -1
Running Backs
If there’s a position I’m willing to abandon my priors with quickly, it’s running backs. For the most part, they are volume-based producers. Unlike other positions, they are often at the mercy of their usage. Many running back rankings were placeholders in preseason rankings. We didn’t know what plans coaches had in store. But Week 1 shows their cards. And because these situations can change throughout the season, expect this set of rankings to be the most volatile every week. For big risers, I’m targeting them in trades or searching the waiver wire in hopes of adding them to my teams immediately. And if they don’t pan out, I’ll be quick to pivot next week. A constant churn of buzzy names and injury-away guys at the bottom of your bench increases your chances of hitting on a usable running back.