Photo: Imagn Images

Setting the Stage

Andre Johnson has been a prime time performer every step of his athletic life. He was rated as one of the top college prospects in the country after being selected to the High School Parade All-American Team. Even though he was widely recruited nationally, including an offer to Southern Cal, he stayed home and played for the University of Miami.  He first started at wide receiver in 2001, as a red-shirt sophomore and caught 37 passes for 685 yards and scored 10 TDs. He further improved as a junior, catching 52 passes for 1,092 yards and 9 TDs.  He averaged 19.9 yards per catch and scored 20 TDs at Miami. He also ran track, winning the 60-meter dash, with a time of 6.83 seconds in the Big East indoor championship. He also won the 100-meter championship, with a time of 10.59 seconds in the Big East outdoor.
 
He was invited to attend the NFL Combine and ran a 4.41 forty-yard dash, an excellent time for someone that measured 6-feet 2, and 229 pounds. He was drafted in the first round (3rd overall) by the Houston Texans and had spent his entire 12-year NFL career there until he was cut March 2nd. He wasn’t on the street long, signing a $21 Million 3-year contract less than 10 days later with the Colts that included $10 Million guaranteed.

A review of Johnson’s career production (provided in the table below) shows that he has finished among the top ten wide receivers four times and between WR10 and WR23 another five times.  Although Johnson has been productive from his rookie season, his numbers have often been limited by the Texans general ineptitude at quarterback. Johnson’s 12-year career included his first four years with David Carr. In those four seasons, Johnson never finished higher than WR18.  Matt Schaub joined the Texans in 2007 and stayed through 2013 and is by far the best quarterback Johnson has played with. Even though Johnson was limited to nine games in his first season with Schaub, he was on track for a 1,500 yard season. From 08 through 13, Johnson was spectacular, averaging 6.6 catches and 94 yards per game. In 2014, Johnson’s last season in Houston, Ryan Fitzpatrick played the most, but both Ryan Mallett and Tom Savage also played and the offense was inconsistent finishing 17th in yards per game and 24th in passing yards per game.

Career Production

Looking Forward to 2015

Andre Johnson moves to Indianapolis, rejoining one of the coaches that recruited him to Miami. He will team with easily the best quarterback he has played with over his career. The Colts already have a dynamic offense that led the NFL in passing yardage a year ago. Since Andrew Luck joined the Colts, they have averaged 623 passes per season and a year ago, they attempted 660. Johnson replaces Reggie Wayne, who had played for the Colts the past 14 seasons. The team also signed Frank Gore, who even at the age of 32, should be the best running back that the Colts have had since Luck began his career in 2012. Gore has rushed for over 1,100 yards in each of the past four seasons.

The primary factor that could limit Johnson’s production this season could be the serious competition that he will face for targets. The Colts return T.Y. Hilton who has caught 82 passes in each of his last two seasons, second year player Donte Moncrief who caught 15 passes for 226 yards and 2 TDs (over half his year’s production) during the team’s final six games, and two solid receiving tight ends in Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener. They also add a speedy rookie receiver in Phillip Dorsett and Frank Gore, who has averaged 34 receptions over his 10-year career and has topped 50 catches in four seasons.
 
The other factor that could impact Johnson and all of the Colt receiver’s production is an improved running game. Over Luck’s three seasons, the team’s primary running back has averaged under 4.0 yards per carry each year. In 2012, Vick Ballard had 211 rushes and averaged 3.9 ypc. Over the past two seasons, it has been even worse with Trent Richardson having 161 and 159 rushes and averaging 2.9 and 3.3 ypc. The team could be more patient on offense this year if they can maintain drives by running the ball more effectively. Gore has proved to a consistent runner and over that same 3-year period, he has 790 rushes with a 4.36 ypc average.

Positives

• Johnson is a determined competitor and comes to the Colts focused on playing well and helping the team reach the post season
• Johnson has averaged a 60.4% reception percentage with suspect quarterbacking over his career and should increase that number with Andrew Luck throwing him the ball
• Frank Gore should stabilize the running game allowing the receivers more opportunities

Negatives

• Although Johnson is a 12-year veteran, he is new to Indianapolis and their system
• The Colts have significantly better receivers across the board than Johnson played with in Houston
• Johnson has never scored double digit TDs in a season and has averaged only 4 TDs the past three seasons
• If the Colts running game is significantly improved, it could decrease the number of passes thrown

Projections

Final thoughts

Johnson’s ADP is currently listed as WR22 and 50 overall (WR19 and 42 in ppr scoring), which is quite a bit lower than last season. His value likely depends greatly on his opportunities, particularly in the red zone. Johnson will turn 34 this summer, but with the Colts having two speedy receivers in T.Y. Hilton and Phillip Dorsett, Johnson should be used more often as a possession receiver where size, strength and savvy play important roles.

Other Viewpoints

Kevin Patra with NFL.com “Andre Johnson set for big role on Colts?"

While the Houston Texans wanted to reduce Johnson's role in the offense -- precipitating his release -- the Colts appear poised to give the veteran a big part in their play. According to ESPN beat reporter Mike Wells, who was on hand for Colts OTAs on Wednesday, it was "pretty obvious" that the veteran will have a "significant part" in Indy's offense.
 
Even if we normally can't glean a whole lot from OTAs, the note from Wells indicates that Johnson should clearly be considered the No. 2 receiving target behind T.Y. Hilton as we inch toward the summer months.
 
Zak Keefer with IndyStar.com “With Colts, Andre Johnson rediscovering love for the game"

A college coach, sitting in the living room of a high school All-American who's slumped in a beanbag chair half-asleep and hardly paying attention. The first time he met Andre Johnson, Chuck Pagano remembers walking out of the house and his boss mumbling, "This guy don't want to go to Miami.”

Pagano and the receiver stayed close. The past few years, they’d meet at midfield after games, Pagano now leading the Colts, Johnson the Texans’ veteran receiver whose career was fading fast. They’d hug. “How’s your Mom?” his old coach would ask. “How’s your uncle? How’s your brother?”

Then Chuck Pagano realized something. He had the chance to recruit Andre Johnson all over again.

Sean Pendergrass with Houstonpress.com in “Andre Johnson: The Past Two Seasons Were Pretty Miserable”

What parts of the business with the Texans were disillusioning to you? "Probably the biggest thing was the QB situation. People who actually think how you feel about certain things, but then when you give your opinion, they tell you something and do the opposite. That was the biggest thing, talking to you about certain stuff, and even doing contract stuff to help the team and nothing was coming of it."

What were your choices? "The Colts were the team that I wanted to go to. The best team with a chance to win a Super Bowl, and play with a great quarterback."