Top 3 Rushing Matchups
LA Rams at Carolina
After dealing with some injuries down the stretch, the Rams appear that they’re going to be mostly healthy heading into this game. Along the offensive line, Alaric Jackson is good to go, as is Warren McLendon Jr., who has had a breakout season replacing Rob Havenstein, who was placed on IR back in Week 4. The big question mark for the Rams this week is the health of right guard Kevin Dotson, who appears unlikely to play as of Thursday, as he has not practiced this week. If he’s unable to go, it is a significant loss as second-year undrafted guard Justin Dedich will once again get the start, and while Dedich is doing everything he can, he’s not on the same level as Dotson has played at over the last few years. The good news for the Rams is that this offense is fully clicking. Kyren Williams continues to be one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL as he’s averaging 4.8 yards per carry on the year, while Blake Corum has had an excellent season as a complimentary back to Williams and now has 10 or more carries in five of his last six games, as the team is using them much closer to a committee than a change of pace type player. With opponents forced to respect the Rams' passing attack, especially with Davante Adams back this week, it should continue to create favorable running lanes for them.
Carolina started the season looking like one of the most improved run defenses in the NFL after being the worst in the league in 2024. However, in the second half of the season, this defense has collapsed. Since Week 10, Carolina has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and fourth-most rushing yards during that timeframe. They’ve allowed at least 70 rushing yards to every running back that they’ve faced except for the trio of Devin Neal, Evan Hull, and Audric Estime in Week 15. The issue is that outside of defensive tackle Derrick Brown, the team has a talent deficiency in its defensive line and linebackers. Linebacker Christian Rozeboom started the season off strong, but he’s regressed to his career levels, which is a replacement-level linebacker. Meanwhile, along the defensive line, Tershawn Wharton, D.J. Wonnum, and A’Shawn Robinson leave a lot to be desired along the defensive line. In Week 13, the first time these two teams met, Blake Corum and Kyren Williams combined for 153 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns.
Jacksonville vs Buffalo
Travis Etienne Jr. and the Jaguars' rushing attack have been inconsistent throughout the year. Over his last nine games, Etienne is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and has not had a 100+ yard performance since Week 5. We have yet to see Bhayshul Tuten return to his 15-carry volume from Week 11, as he has been dealing with multiple injuries, including a finger injury that required surgery. Part of the Jaguars' struggles has been on the right side of the line, as center Robert Hainsey and right guard Patrick Mekari have both struggled. Etienne has excelled as a receiver; when he is able to get out in space, he’s still a dynamic player. But as a runner, the issue is that there are just too many negative runs or no gain because the offensive line is losing leverage. Etienne is not great at gaining yards after contact, as he is 57th this season with just 3.04 yards per attempt after contact.
Buffalo’s run defense has shown signs of improvement, but it still has significant question marks heading into the playoffs. On the season, Buffalo is allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game and allowing 4.9 yards per carry to opposing running backs, which is the third-worst this season. It’s hard to put any thought into Week 18 against the Jets, in which the Bills did not play their starters consistently, but in Weeks 16 and 17, this was a unit that did show some signs of improvement, holding Quinshon Judkins to just 22 yards and Saquon Barkley to 68 on 19 carries. However, this unit has allowed five 100+-yard performances this season, including three of 160+. The issue for Buffalo is that they’re a team built to stop Kansas City: rush the passer, have a strong coverage unit, and have good-enough coverage linebackers and safeties. What this has done is completely deprioritize stopping the run at the linebacker position, as Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard have been abysmal this season. It’s not all their fault, however, because when teams are running the ball, Bernard and Milano are consistently forced to shed blockers because the interior of the defensive line has struggled. Despite weighing 350 pounds, 2025 fourth-round pick Deone Walker has been pushed around as if he’s a far lighter player. Expectations may have been too high for Walker, as if a player that big is falling to the fourth round, there’s likely some indicators that he’s not ready to be thrust into save your run defense, as he’s just not athletic or strong enough to be that elite run-stopper that we’ve seen higher pick rookies be.
Carolina vs LA Rams
The Panthers have struggled running the ball over the last several weeks. Over his last eight games, Rico Dowdle is averaging a shockingly low 3.2 yards per carry and has only had one game above 4.0 yards per carry. Dowdle has struggled to make every play a big one, resulting in significant negative or no-gain carries. Chuba Hubbard still does not have much of a role in this offense, as he has averaged just 5.7 carries per game over the last four weeks and has not had much success to instill confidence in the Panthers to give him the ball more. If there is some upside here, it is that the Panthers have faced a difficult schedule down the stretch, as they faced Tampa Bay twice and Seattle once in their last three games. In Week 13, the Panthers ran the ball 35 times against the Rams, amassing 141 yards, which was by far their best performance over the last several weeks, so look for them to at least try to run the ball to keep the Rams offense off the field this week.
This happens every year in the playoffs, where we end up writing about a team that is not a great matchup, but because we are picking the top three, here we are. This is really a season of two halves for the Rams, as they started the year with one of the best run-stopping units in the NFL, but since Week 12, they’ve allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs as they’re allowing 105 rushing yards per game on just 22 carries. This was all set up by Weeks 16 and 17, where the Rams allowed back-to-back 100+ yard performances to Bijan Robinson and Ken Walker III. In the first matchup of these two teams, the Panthers did find success in Week 13, as the combination of Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard amassed 141 yards, although it did take 35 carries to get there. When this defense is clicking, it remains one of the most talented in football, but one weakness is that the team does not fully trust its corners, which has led to the safeties providing additional help over the second half of the year. Along the defensive line, this is an extremely talented unit, led by Poona Ford, who is having a career season, along with 2023 third-round pick Kobie Turner and arguably the best edge rusher duo in Byron Young and Jared Verse. This is a team that is undersized along the defensive line, as Ford is the only consistent player who is over 300 pounds, and he’s just 310 pounds, so they lack that traditional 335+ pound run-stopper.
