This offseason, the league passed new defensive holding and illegal contact rules that are going to have a significant impact on fantasy players this year.
The rule prohibiting defensive holding now includes a defender grabbing the jersey of an offensive player. While it seems rather innocuous, this could actually be the more significant rule change since this happens quite a bit during games. If an official sees a jersey tug, it will be a 5-yard penalty and an automatic first down for the offense.
Under the new addition to the illegal contact rule, defenders cannot initiate contact with an eligible receiver more than five yards from the line of scrimmage when the quarterback is in the pocket with the ball or in the process of releasing the ball. To determine this, the official will recognize the contact, and then look back to the quarterback. If he is in the pocket with the ball or in the process of releasing it, it will be a penalty. If the defender initiated the contact, it will be a 5-yard penalty and an automatic first down. However, the rule does go both ways. If an eligible receiver pushes off or initiates contact further than 5-yards down field, it will be a 10-yard offensive penalty with no change of down, even if the ball is not in the air.
In the 2013 regular season, there were 37 illegal contact penalties and 171 defensive holding calls all year. According to John Clayton of ESPN, there were 27 illegal contact penalties and 53 defensive holding penalties just in these few preseason games alone. While league officials have stated that they are being more judicious in the preseason than they will be in the regular season, the impact of these new rules is going to be felt greatly.
These rule changes will in turn have significant fantasy implications. This season we are seeing more wide receivers being drafted in the first two rounds than ever before. This is due to the nature of the game changing from a predominantly running league just a few years ago to a more up-tempo passing league. These rules should push the values of wide receivers up even further.
As Jeffri Chadiha of ESPN noted, the league is filled with so many talented quarterbacks and athletic receivers that holding, tugging, and yanking has become an acceptable method of defending the pass. It certainly helped the Seattle Seawaks beat the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl. When asked how cornerbacks will contend with Detroit's 6-foot-5, 236-pound Calvin Johnson, Cincinnati's 6-4, 207-pound A.J. Green, or Chicago's 6-4, 230-pound Brandon Marshall without the benefit of holding or pushing, Broncos defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio jokingly stated, "You mean, how do you defend players who already are impossible to defend? That's a great question." In addition to these elite wide receivers, a tight end like Rob Gronkowski is going to dominate even more so against clunky linebackers that couldn’t guard him to begin with.
But these rule changes won’t just help big receivers, they will help the smaller, fast ones as well. Receivers such as DeSean Jackson, T.Y. Hilton, and Mike Wallace were all susceptible to being jammed, particularly when playing the bigger, more physical cornerbacks such as Joe Hadden and Richard Sherman. When played in press-man coverage, it is often difficult for these guys to get free. While still susceptible to being jammed inside five yards, once they get beyond that, their speed should help them gain significantly more separation since they will now be unencumbered when they take off up the field. Even taller wider receivers like Vincent Jackson, who were often put in check by physical corners, will benefit greatly from this.
Although, one thing to watch for is if defensive coordinators counter this by playing more zone coverage or pull their cornerbacks off the line to help prevent big plays. If so, we could certainly see an uptick in short yardage passes, which would see receiving numbers in points per reception leagues increase.
But these rule changes don’t just help receivers. Big, elite receivers will be virtually un-coverable on fade routes near the endzone. Penalties in the redzone could lead to increased chances for short yardage touchdown runs for goal-line backs such as Andre Williams, Fred Jackson, Mark Ingram, and Joique Bell.
Quarterbacks will also benefit and we could see completions, touchdowns and yardage numbers increase. Playing quarterback in the NFL is a precision game, and without wide receivers being pushed or tugged after five yards, it can provide an extra few seconds for the quarterbacks to get the ball out cleaner to a more open receiver. As Kansas City Chiefs' cornerback Sean Smith recently noted, if he could nudge a player for a bit longer, it gives the team’s linebackers and defensive lineman the extra second or two they need to get to the quarterback. They won’t have that extra time now. The gap between the elite quarterback and the third and fourth tier guys will probably grow even more.
More points scored and less sacks also means fewer points for fantasy defenses, further downgrading the significance of their impact. It is probably better to look for defenses that have ball-hawking safeties or streaming defenses playing weak quarterbacks who can’t take as much advantage of these new rules as well as the elite quarterbacks can.
Just how significant an impact these rule changes will have on fantasy scores remains to be seen. But wide receivers certainly seem to be the biggest fantasy winners and it should make them even more valuable early round commodities in your upcoming fantasy drafts.