Michael Penix Jr. Was the Right Pick: The Gut Check No. 619

Picking Michael Penix Jr. Was A Good Decision

The public reaction to the Falcons selecting Michael Penix Jr. sixth overall is indicative of the broad misunderstandings that exist with the evaluation of the position, the valuation for the team, and the opening strategy for a strong development plan. 

Much of the outrage has to do with the public sentiment that Michael Penix Jr. isn’t as good as the other passers drafted within the same range. This is a sentiment they’re parroting from analysts who may not have the evaluation experience, a well-defined process, and/or a grasp of how to chart accuracy at the position.

I'll share Michael Penix Jr.'s scouting report from the 2024 Rookie Scouting Portfolio in this article. You'll see why many of the public's assertions are problematic. 

Let’s put this part of the debate aside. Who is right or wrong about Michael Penix Jr.'s talent is the least important issue surrounding Atlanta’s decision to select a quarterback. It’s more important to explain why Atlanta drafting a first-round quarterback after paying Kirk Cousins a significant amount of guaranteed money on a four-year deal is a much better decision than most realize. 

The Kirk Cousins Contract: Not A Strong Argument Against Michael Penix Jr.

Let’s begin with the money. The collective outrage over the financials with quarterback salaries is always rooted in ignorance. Cousins earns a lot of his money up-front because they are paying him to win now.

This deal is essentially structured for a two-year window of relevancy. By year three, there will be no guaranteed money left on Cousins’ contract. Atlanta can roll with Michael Penix Jr. as the starter and get rid of Cousins without significant financial impact. At that point, Cousins will be 38 going on 39 with the 2026 season on the horizon. The contract is a non-issue.

Cousins' Injury Generates A Bigger Need for Michael Penix Jr. Than Portrayed

Speaking of Cousins, his initial reaction to Michael Penix Jr.'s selection was ill-advised on multiple levels. During the same conversation, Cousins told the media he was stunned and thought the pick wasn’t a good use of draft capital to help the team win now, but he also said that he can only run in a straight line after his Achilles surgery.

Cousins expects to regain the tendon and muscle strength to maneuver a pocket, but that’s an estimation. Achilles recoveries for a quarterback who will be 36 years old when the season begins have more unknowns than they do for a 24-year-old athlete.

Even if Cousins can maneuver a pocket, Atlanta could call on Michael Penix Jr. much earlier if Cousins can't drive off that injured leg and deliver the necessary torque for velocity and placement with his timing routes in the intermediate range of the field. My Going Deep podcast co-host, Brandon Angelo, a trainer of professional athletes, made this salient point about Cousins this spring. 

Cousins may be healthy enough to maneuver the field but not healthy enough to perform at the capacity Atlanta expected. This could make Michael Penix Jr. a necessary start. Tony Pollard's 2023 campaign is the most prominent example of what happens all the time in the NFL.  

Michael Penix Jr. Is the Pick for Need and Talent 

Last year, Atlanta had all the pieces for a strong offense. The Falcons have a dynamic ground game with a Ladainian Tomlinson-caliber talent in Bijan Robinson working behind a good offensive line. Drake London and Kyle Pitts are excellent receivers capable of top-tier production at their respective positions. 

Michael Penix Jr. was a "need pick" because when you look at Atlanta last year, this was a playoff-caliber offense if they had a quarterback who could read the field and win from the pocket while under pressure. The defense has some nice pieces in place with Grady Jarrett, Jessie Bates III, and A.J. Terrell, but one first-round pick isn't going to turn this group into a unit that defines this team. 

The Falcons' offense is much closer to leading the way. It's why Cousins earns most of his money during the next two years. It's also why Michael Penix Jr. is in a position to assume the mantle immediately.

If Cousins can’t fully recover within the expected timeline or sustain his recovery throughout the season, Atlanta would have lacked the quarterback talent to avoid a similar outcome we saw in 2023. The NFC South is a weak division and with competent quarterback play, Atlanta had a chance to earn at least a wild card last year.

Michael Penix Jr. fortifies the most important position on the field for a team whose balance of talent is on the offensive side of the ball. With an aging Kirk Cousins dealing with a career-threatening injury, having a second viable option is more important than an impact defensive tackle, a linebacker, or another piece in the secondary when the defense needs at least all three whereas the offense only needs one.