Welcome to Week 16 of the 2025 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Unlikely Playoff Starters
- What to Make the Jaguars' Lawrence
- The Chiefs Without Mahomes
- Fantasy True/False
Let's roll...
Matt Waldman: Since Week 11, Trevor Lawrence has been fantasy football's QB2, averaging 23.5 points over the past five games, a healthy gap ahead of QB3 Dak Prescott.
Here are some factors to consider:
- Jacksonville has faced the Chargers, Cardinals, Titans, Colts, and Jets during this span.
- Liam Coen has figured out how to get the best from Lawrence.
- Brian Thomas Jr. is coming around.
- Jakobi Meyers has been the boost the passing offense needed.
Pick the factor that you believe has made the biggest difference this month and tell us if you're optimistic it continues against the Broncos in Week 16.
Mike Kashuba: The biggest factor for the boost in fantasy points has been the soft schedule that the Jaguars have faced. The Cardinals, Titans, and Jets are three teams that appeared to have given up on the season the earliest, and the Jaguars took advantage of those matchups.
Still, Liam Coen has used this stretch of games to build rapport between Lawrence and his receivers, and Lawrence is looking more comfortable. Their November and early December schedule gave the Jaguars time to mesh all the pieces of their offense a little more closely together and should hypothetically give them momentum heading into Week 16.
I'm not calling another six-touchdown day for Lawrence, but I'd still recommend starting him in most leagues.
Jason Wood: Matt, leave it to you to ask me to analyze the NFL player I find most confounding. My opinion of Trevor Lawrence has bounced around more than AMC stock when meme traders are feeling frisky.
At various points in his career, I've been convinced he's a massive bust, a genuine franchise cornerstone, and everything in between. To say he's maddening to analyze and project would be an understatement.
Since you asked, I think Lawrence's strong play of late is due to a confluence of factors. If I had to zero in on one, it would be the schedule.
The Chargers have the stingiest pass defense in the league, measured by adjusted yards per attempt, but the other defenses on that list are porous, including the Colts, who were dealing with key injuries in their last matchup.
The Broncos' pass defense ranks sixth in ANY/Attempt, third in pass completion rate allowed (58.5 percent), third in touchdown percentage allowed (2.9 percent), first in sacks (58), and first in quarterback hits (135). In other words, I don't expect Lawrence to continue his heroic ways this week.
If Lawrence plays well against Denver, we can reasonably shift to giving full credit to Liam Coen's system and the broader process improvements.
Jeff Bell: The owner-general manager-coach-quarterback relationship is the central nervous system of any successful team. When it moves in concert, the sky is the limit.
Liam Coen has shown himself to be an excellent offensive coach over the last couple of seasons, and it was only fair to give him and Lawrence time to build their relationship. The first month of the season was rocky. Since then, everything has worked.
It is a significant testament to Lawrence and Coen that they have navigated the loss of Travis Hunter, Brian Thomas Jr., and Brenton Strange for portions of the season. The flawless integration of Jakobi Meyers midseason further demonstrates the high level of competence. We saw Buffalo, Kansas City, and Baltimore all fail to integrate high-profile additions in the middle of 2024, and Rashid Shaheed has made only a small impact in Seattle.
We know Denver is a difficult matchup, but we have seen teams deliver strong performances, most notably Washington with Marcus Mariota. I am higher than consensus on Lawrence heading into this matchup and have trust in the talent around him, but mainly in Coen's ability to navigate the situation.