Welcome to Week 16 of the 2025 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Unlikely Playoff Starters
- What to Make the Jaguars' Lawrence
- The Chiefs Without Mahomes
- Fantasy True/False
Let's roll...
Matt Waldman: Last week, I listed Lamar Jackson, Justin Jefferson, Ladd McConkey, and Jonathan Taylor as four options who have underperformed for the past 4-5 weeks.
Taylor was the only player who delivered starter value last week. No one on last week's panel mentioned Taylor as a must-bench. This week, let's look at options who performed well last week and/or in recent weeks who aren't highly regarded based on season-long box score totals.
Who is the closest thing to a must-start on this list?
Jason Wood: Since the Steelers' bye week, Kenneth Gainwell has played 271 snaps to Jaylen Warren's 300. It's a true committee, but there's more to this development.
Gainwell's role has become game-script agnostic because he's the de facto No. 2 receiver behind DK Metcalf. Gainwell is the only Steeler, other than Metcalf, to record more than five targets in a game over the last month, and he's done so in three of the past four weeks.
Unless you're in a non-PPR league, you can count on Gainwell to provide an enticing floor, while also offering rushing touchdown optionality. He's tied with Warren on the season with four rushing scores despite having roughly half the carries.
Some may point to the Steelers' matchups against Detroit and Cleveland as a risk factor, but that concern applies more to Warren, given how tough those defenses are against the run. Gainwell's receiving role meaningfully insulates him.
Meng Song: The closest thing to a must-start player on this list is Jakobi Meyers. Outside of his first game as a Jaguar, Meyers has averaged 14.9 PPR PPG over the last 5 weeks (WR19 in fantasy over that span). He's seen a 20-plus percent target share in every single game with Jacksonville and has quickly become a go-to option for Trevor Lawrence.
Brian Thomas Jr. will likely see a lot of Patrick Surtain II, so Meyers still projects for high target volume this week. Even in a tough matchup against this Broncos secondary, Meyers should remain a relatively high-floor PPR WR3 option.
With talented wide receivers like Davante Adams, Drake London, Tee Higgins, Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, Ricky Pearsall, and others all questionable to play this week, Meyers might even still sneak into my top-24 ranked wide receivers for the fantasy semi-finals.
David Zacharias: I'd like to be a contrarian and pick someone other than Kyle Pitts Sr., but the case for him is too compelling. Pitts has finished as the TE4, the TE5, and the TE1 in his last three games (first overall combined).
Pitts' Week 16 game is in Arizona, where he faces the fifth-most generous defenses against tight ends. Early Footballguys projections have Pitts as the TE3 for Week 16. Adding to Pitts' incentive is that he'll want to shine against the team that features Trey McBride (the overall TE1 in the league).
Mike Kashuba: I like the verbiage of "closest" here, because none of them are striking fear into opponents when you set your lineup. Originally, Jakobi Meyers seemed like a clear option, but the schedule the rest of the way through will have him matched up with some of the best corners in football, so he's off the list.
The Kirk Cousins to Kyle Pitts Sr. connection has been puzzling, but since Michael Penix Jr. was ruled out for the rest of the season, Pitts is averaging over eight targets per game. That's correlated with Drake London missing time and the Falcons relying on receivers like David Sills V and Khadarel Hodge for meaningful minutes, so maybe it's a coincidence.
Then again, maybe it's real, and Pitts gets the Arizona Cardinals in most semi-final matchups, and David touted the meaningful data point for the matchup. The fantasy playoffs are often high-scoring shootouts, and Pitts is one of a select few tight ends who can score more than 30. He's the closest to a must-start from this list.
Andy Hicks: Surely this answer has to be Kyle Pitts Sr. He has had only two games with fewer than five targets all year.
Pitts has recorded at least four receptions in 10 games, including six games with six or more receptions, which is elite production for the tight end position. That is tight end royalty.
His insane numbers against the Bucs notwithstanding, he had 10 catches for 90 yards and 8 for 82 yards in his preceding two games. Touchdowns are the only thing stopping him from ranking in the top three.
Whether Pitts' dip in production stemmed from Michael Penix Jr.'s limitations or the absence of Drake London, the outlook changes dramatically with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, making Pitts a clear must-start.
Jeff Bell: Pitts is coming off one of the best fantasy games for a tight end in history. Given the primetime spotlight of that game, it will drive attention. In reality, he was playing excellent football coming into it, joining Trey McBride, Travis Kelce, and Tyler Warren as the only tight ends with 60-plus receptions and 600-plus yards before his blow-up spot.
Kirk Cousins has his faults at this stage of his career, but he has always been able to deliver the ball to his primary option. We are waiting to see if Drake London can return from injury, but his first game back and the lack of any other reliable secondary options should ease concerns about Pitts.
Points should be plentiful, as the Cardinals have been in shootouts each week. Pitts is only five points behind Travis Kelce.
Given the quarterback change in Kansas City, the Week 15 matchup could be a showcase of the TE1 and TE2 overall, with McBride coming the other direction. Fitting Pitts would live up to expectations weeks away from potential free agency, and after most all in the fantasy space had given up hope.
Waldman: As always, thanks for reading.
Check out the links below for all of this week's roundtable topics:
- Unlikely Playoff Starters
- What to Make the Jaguars' Lawrence
- The Chiefs Without Mahomes
- Fantasy True/False
Good luck!
