True Fantasy Points: Week 11

Danny Tuccitto's True Fantasy Points: Week 11 Danny Tuccitto Published 11/14/2014

After presenting True Fantasy Points (TFP) for all four fantasy skill positions last week, and without much in the way of potential changes one week later, I figured I'd use this week's article to give you some insight into the "true" rate stats that underlie TFP. It's one thing to know that so-and-so WR has scored 30 points more than he should have this season; it's another to see exactly where those 30 points-worth of overachievement have come in terms of receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Granted, I've included these more-granular stats in my write-ups of specific players, but it seems like it would be helpful if readers were privy to them on a larger scale. So as we approach the holiday season, what follows is an early gift from me to you. 

Here's all the information you need to know to read the tables:

  • "YPA +/-" is a QB's current Yards per Attempt minus his True YPA.
  • "TD% +/-" is a QB's/RB's current Touchdown Rate minus his True TD%.
  • "INT% +/-" is a QB's current Interception Rate minus his True INT%.
  • "YPC +/-" is a RB's current Yards per Carry minus his True YPC.
  • "RPRR +/-" is a RB's/WR's/TE's current Receptions per Routes Run minus his True RPRR.
  • "YPRR +/-" is a RB's/WR's/TE's current Yards per Routes Run minus his True YPRR.
  • "TDPRR +/-" is a RB's/WR's/TE's current Touchdowns per Routes Run minus his True TDPRR.
  • All +/- values in the "2014 Only" section apply regression to the mean (RTM) based only on the player's stats in 2014.
  • All +/- values in the "Career w/ Tm" section apply RTM based on the player's career stats with their current team.
  • For the convenience of easily locating a specific player, I've sorted all tables in alphabetical order.

So, as an example, Tom Brady's YPA +/- of -0.14 in the "2014 Only" section of the QB table means his current 7.14 YPA is 0.14 YPA below his 7.28 True YPA based only on 2014. Meanwhile, in the "Career w/ Tm" section, his current YPA is 0.30 below his 7.44 True YPA since he's been in New England. Both of these stats tell us that Brady's slightly underperforming his "true" yardage-producing ability and figures to throw for a higher YPA going forward.

quarterbacks

Below, you'll find +/- stats for Footballguys' Top 24 QBs Forward, with values predicting better performance going forward highlighted in green, and values predicting worse performance highlighted in yellow:

Name Tm 2014 Only Career w/ Tm
YPA +/- TD% +/- INT% +/- YPA +/- TD% +/- INT% +/-
Tom Brady NE -0.14 0.96% -0.99% -0.3 1.07% -1.13%
Drew Brees NO 0.05 -0.38% 0.48% -0.23 -0.7% 0.18%
Teddy Bridgewater MIN -0.46 -3.18% 0.41% -0.39 -2.64% 0.07%
Derek Carr OAK -0.94 -1.09% 0.49% -0.78 -0.79% 0.2%
Jay Cutler CHI -0.12 0.12% 0.8% -0.02 0.41% -0.02%
Joe Flacco BAL -0.11 -0.34% 0.17% 0.14 0.53% -0.2%
Robert Griffin III WAS 0.67 -3.6% -0.58% 0.62 -3.16% -0.81%
Colin Kaepernick SF 0.04 -0.64% -0.3% -0.19 -0.43% -0.44%
Andrew Luck IND 0.23 0.96% 0.17% 0.57 1.6% -0.06%
Eli Manning NYG -0.27 0% -0.18% -0.17 0.55% -1.19%
Peyton Manning DEN 0.45 2.19% -0.08% 0.17 1.48% -0.08%
Cam Newton CAR -0.17 -1.5% 0.53% -0.4 -1.04% 0.11%
Kyle Orton BUF -0.04 -0.01% -0.44% -0.21 0% -0.76%
Philip Rivers SD 0.35 1.18% 0.55% 0.13 1.32% 0.19%
Aaron Rodgers GB 0.76 2.95% -0.85% 0.53 2.72% -0.84%
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 0.33 0.54% -0.62% 0.19 0.84% -1.22%
Tony Romo DAL 0.57 1.11% 0.13% 0.49 1.16% -0.35%
Matt Ryan ATL 0.07 -0.41% 0.25% 0.29 -0.02% -0.01%
Mark Sanchez PHI 1.44 1.4% 1.27% 1.3 1.48% 0.83%
Alex Smith KC -0.31 -0.74% -0.54% -0.06 -0.49% -0.62%
Matthew Stafford DET -0.03 -1.11% 0.23% 0.22 -0.63% -0.32%
Drew Stanton ARI -0.64 -1.91% -1.97% -0.71 -1.76% -2.32%
Ryan Tannehill MIA -0.45 -0.46% 0.1% -0.26 0.33% -0.31%
Russell Wilson SEA -0.17 -0.85% -0.13% -0.52 -1.2% -0.35%

sell-high candidate #1: aaron rodgers

Rodgers is in his seventh season as the Packers' starter, all in the same offensive scheme, so let's focus on his "Career w/ Tm" stats. In 3,482 previous attempts in Green Bay, Rodgers produced an 8.24 YPA, which translates to a True YPA of 8.16. Thus far this season, he's at 8.69. Even more outlying is his current 9.03 TD%, which dwarfs his 6.66 True TD% for 2014 only and his 6.31 True TD% since 2008. Rodgers' fantasy strength of schedule is no more difficult from here out than it has been to this point, but something's got to give.

sell-high candidate #2: mark sanchez

The fact that I just associated the words "sell-high" with the words "Mark Sanchez" is making me question the meaning of life and my place in the universe. Is Sanchez a better fantasy QB in the Eagles offense than he was in the Jets offense? It's likely. Will he be able to sustain a 9.05 YPA, which is even better than Rodgers', and a 6.78 TD%? It's incredibly unlikely. Given the league averages of 7.39 YPA and 5.30 TD%, RTM suggests Sanchez's True YPA is 7.61 and his True TD% is 5.38%.

running backs

Here's the table with +/- stats for Footballguys' Top 48 RBs Forward with respect to either Standard FBG scoring or PPR scoring (Top 8 underachievers are highlighted in green, while Top 8 overachievers are highlighted in yellow):

Name Tm 2014 Only Career w/ Tm
YPC +/- TD% +/- RPRR +/- YPRR +/- TDPRR +/- YPC +/- TD% +/- RPRR +/- YPRR +/- TDPRR +/-
C.J. Anderson DEN 1.49 -2.9% 2.27% 1.06 1.64% 1.29 -2.84% 3.11% 1.11 1.77%
Matt Asiata MIN -0.89 3.65% 0.33% 0.12 0.08% -1.07 3.5% 0.55% 0.21 0.21%
Montee Ball DEN -1.07 -1.12% -3.87% -0.49 -0.62% -1.28 -1.15% -4.57% -0.49 -0.45%
Joique Bell DET -0.87 -0.22% -2.82% -0.16 -0.59% -1.05 -0.45% -6.61% -0.52 -0.33%
Le'Veon Bell PIT 0.36 -1.94% 0.84% 0.11 0% 0.27 -2.08% 2.48% 0.19 0.21%
Giovani Bernard CIN -0.13 1.33% 0.19% 0 -0.6% -0.29 1.42% -0.91% -0.14 -0.59%
Alfred Blue HOU -0.76 -2.75% -2.7% -0.13 1.39% -0.95 -2.72% -2.69% -0.13 1.52%
Ahmad Bradshaw IND 0.81 -0.56% 2.3% 0.29 2.58% 0.62 -0.62% 2.1% 0.31 2.72%
Bryce Brown BUF -0.65 -2.97% 9.79% 1.5 -0.66% -0.85 -2.94% 9.8% 1.5 -0.53%
Jamaal Charles KC 0.56 1.99% -1.84% -0.35 0.51% -0.01 2.33% -3.09% -0.54 0.43%
Andre Ellington ARI -0.68 -0.99% 1.38% 0.23 0.3% -0.93 -0.94% 1.41% 0.17 0.44%
Justin Forsett BAL 1.12 0.6% -0.11% -0.19 -0.57% 0.93 0.64% -0.1% -0.18 -0.46%
Matt Forte CHI -0.03 -0.81% 2.17% 0.27 0.32% -0.17 -0.41% 3.9% 0.34 0.45%
Arian Foster HOU 0.81 1.06% -0.5% 0 0.93% 0.63 0.67% -0.47% -0.06 1.11%
Devonta Freeman ATL -0.12 -2.91% 16% 1.14 1.05% -0.32 -2.87% 16% 1.15 1.18%
Frank Gore SF -0.25 -1.32% -6.56% -0.5 0.13% -0.43 -1.34% -8.2% -0.49 0.31%
Jonas Gray NE -0.13 -2.9% -14.89% -1.28 -0.67% -0.33 -2.86% -14.88% -1.28 -0.54%
Roy Helu WAS 0.88 0% 1.29% 0.59 -0.6% 0.7 0.08% 3.26% 0.88 -0.37%
Jeremy Hill CIN 0.45 2.46% 0.06% 0.19 -0.62% 0.26 2.49% 0.07% 0.19 -0.5%
Ronnie Hillman DEN -0.07 0.23% -0.26% -0.19 0.1% -0.23 0.5% 0.3% -0.17 0.28%
Mark Ingram NO 0.54 1.86% -0.94% -0.35 -0.63% 0.4 1.97% 0.75% -0.17 -0.43%
Chris Ivory NYJ 0.21 0.87% -3.01% -0.28 -0.61% 0 1.17% -0.64% -0.11 -0.47%
Fred Jackson BUF 0.01 -1.23% 3.82% 0.38 -0.03% -0.21 -0.93% 5.72% 0.43 0.16%
Steven Jackson ATL -0.37 0.49% -0.29% -0.3 -0.63% -0.49 0.39% -1.57% -0.25 -0.52%
Rashad Jennings NYG 0.12 -0.74% -0.02% 0.21 -0.64% -0.07 -0.7% -0.02% 0.21 -0.51%
Eddie Lacy GB -0.2 0.28% -0.8% 0.23 -0.06% -0.35 0.09% -0.39% 0.36 0.15%
Marshawn Lynch SEA 0.26 2.32% -1.44% 0.05 0.91% 0.1 2.17% -0.47% 0.24 1.11%
Tre Mason STL 0.06 -1.32% -0.24% -0.42 -0.65% -0.13 -1.29% -0.23% -0.42 -0.52%
Ryan Mathews SD -1.12 1.27% 11.42% 1.86 -0.67% -1.32 1.68% 7.55% 1.69 -0.4%
LeSean McCoy PHI -0.48 -1.49% -2.63% -0.54 -0.56% -0.8 -1.91% -4.79% -0.73 -0.51%
Darren McFadden OAK -0.65 -0.98% 2.12% -0.05 -0.6% -0.78 -0.81% 1.66% -0.27 -0.5%
Jerick McKinnon MIN 0.7 -2.67% 0.35% -0.33 -0.61% 0.51 -2.64% 0.36% -0.33 -0.49%
Lamar Miller MIA 0.55 1.3% -1.1% -0.3 -0.03% 0.38 1.76% 1.66% -0.07 0.2%
Alfred Morris WAS -0.23 0.74% -5.46% -0.54 -0.61% -0.48 0.73% -1.42% -0.2 -0.38%
DeMarco Murray DAL 0.74 -0.12% 2.41% 0.19 -0.58% 0.47 -0.02% 3.36% 0.34 -0.36%
Branden Oliver SD -0.42 -0.87% 3.49% 0.25 0.29% -0.61 -0.83% 3.49% 0.25 0.41%
Bobby Rainey TB 0.23 -1.67% 0.69% 0.21 -0.02% 0.07 -1.77% 1.27% 0.37 0.05%
Trent Richardson IND -0.57 -1.02% 1.03% 0.15 -0.61% -0.66 -0.83% 2.52% 0.2 -0.49%
Theo Riddick DET -2.01 -2.97% 11.17% 1.55 5.21% -2.2 -3.04% 12.06% 1.62 5.35%
Denard Robinson JAX 0.58 0.84% 0.52% -0.48 -0.62% 0.39 0.92% 1.58% -0.43 -0.49%
Bishop Sankey TEN -0.3 -1.71% -2.76% -0.34 -0.62% -0.49 -1.68% -2.75% -0.34 -0.5%
Charles Sims TB -1.34 -3% 0.43% 0.07 -0.67% -1.54 -2.96% 0.43% 0.07 -0.54%
Darren Sproles PHI 2.29 7.66% 1.75% 0.73 -0.61% 2.09 7.7% 1.75% 0.73 -0.49%
Jonathan Stewart CAR -0.31 -0.42% -2.27% -0.33 -0.61% -0.58 -0.48% -1.82% -0.32 -0.5%
Lorenzo Taliaferro BAL -0.01 3.23% 4.19% 1.36 -0.66% -0.21 3.26% 4.19% 1.36 -0.53%
Ben Tate CLE -0.9 0.7% -4.22% -0.54 -0.62% -1.09 0.73% -4.21% -0.54 -0.5%
Pierre Thomas NO 0.21 3.48% 3.81% 0.31 0.17% -0.03 3.39% 0.74% 0.1 0.14%
Shane Vereen NE 0.26 -1.44% -0.5% -0.11 0.62% 0.08 -1.49% -2.24% -0.39 0.59%
Terrance West CLE -0.5 -0.2% -4.55% -0.65 0.67% -0.69 -0.17% -4.55% -0.65 0.79%
Andre Williams NYG -1.2 0.43% -5.89% -0.62 -0.62% -1.39 0.46% -5.88% -0.62 -0.5%

Frank Gore and LeSean McCoy remain among the most underachieving RBs, while Ahmad Bradshaw and Arian Foster remain among the most overachieving RBs. Excluding players like these that I've identified previously, we're left with a couple of new buy-low/sell-high candidates: 

STANDARD buy-low candidate #1: montee ball

It doesn't inspire confidence when a player says that he deserves to be Wally Pipp'ed, but it's important to remember that the person who owns him in your league has just as little, if not less, confidence. You can probably acquire him for a song, and his +/- stats in the context of his Broncos career -- coupled with C.J. Anderson's current overachievement -- suggest the possibility of a resurgence if he's able to ascend back to first fiddle between now and the end of the season.

STANDARD buy-low candidate #2: charles sims

Continuing in the vein of bargain basement trade targets, there's Sims, who still sits behind Bobby Rainey in the Buccaneers pecking order at RB. Nevertheless, a variety of factors suggest that his ascension is only a matter of time. When that happens, his rate stats are highly likely to improve, especially with respect to yards and touchdowns, both rushing and receiving.

wide receivers

And now, the table with +/- stats for Footballguys' Top 60 WRs Forward (Top 10 underachievers are highlighted in green, while Top 10 overachievers are highlighted in yellow):

Name Tm 2014 Only Career w/ Tm
RPRR +/- YPRR +/- TDPRR +/- RPRR +/- YPRR +/- TDPRR +/-
Davante Adams GB -1.35% -0.42 -0.32% -1.51% -0.48 -0.35%
Keenan Allen SD 0.44% -0.19 -0.69% 0.63% -0.39 -0.88%
Doug Baldwin SEA -0.12% -0.17 -0.68% 0.28% -0.31 -0.77%
Odell Beckham Jr NYG -0.45% 0.02 0.23% -0.62% -0.05 0.19%
Kelvin Benjamin CAR -0.52% 0 0.52% -0.64% -0.05 0.49%
Anquan Boldin SF 0.76% 0.05 -0.24% -0.93% -0.24 -0.36%
Dwayne Bowe KC 0.82% 0.06 -0.97% 2.03% 0.13 -1.19%
Kenny Britt STL -2.32% -0.37 -0.36% -2.47% -0.43 -0.4%
Antonio Brown PIT 1.86% 0.37 0.5% 2.28% 0.34 0.76%
John Brown ARI -0.6% -0.1 0.69% -0.75% -0.16 0.65%
Dez Bryant DAL 1.53% 0.35 0.95% 3.31% 0.48 0.73%
Martavis Bryant PIT 1.92% 1.44 5.3% 1.68% 1.35 5.25%
Randall Cobb GB 0.23% 0.13 1.48% -1.5% -0.01 1.52%
Marques Colston NO -1.63% -0.2 -0.69% -5.19% -0.5 -1.1%
Brandin Cooks NO 0.45% -0.16 -0.23% 0.32% -0.22 -0.27%
Michael Crabtree SF -0.17% -0.24 -0.19% -1.1% -0.42 -0.18%
Eric Decker NYJ 0.45% -0.17 0.1% 0.31% -0.23 0.06%
Julian Edelman NE 0.91% -0.1 -0.47% 0.83% 0.01 -0.4%
Mike Evans TB 0.34% 0.18 0.47% 0.19% 0.12 0.43%
Larry Fitzgerald ARI -0.11% 0.02 -0.47% -0.68% 0.01 -0.76%
Malcom Floyd SD -1.67% -0.05 -0.18% -2.3% -0.24 -0.16%
Michael Floyd ARI -2.32% -0.33 -0.47% -3.43% -0.4 -0.32%
Pierre Garcon WAS -0.12% -0.21 -0.22% -3.62% -0.63 -0.2%
A.J. Green CIN 0.86% 0.46 0.63% 0.11% 0.3 0.4%
Percy Harvin NYJ 4.17% 0.13 -1.14% 3.94% 0.04 -1.18%
T.Y. Hilton IND 0.69% 0.38 -0.29% 1.85% 0.55 -0.34%
Andre Holmes OAK -1.4% -0.11 0.34% -0.79% -0.13 0.48%
DeAndre Hopkins HOU 0.31% 0.27 0.1% 3.61% 0.64 0.41%
Justin Hunter TEN -2.56% -0.34 -0.43% -2.31% -0.4 -0.58%
DeSean Jackson WAS -0.45% 0.48 0.11% -0.59% 0.42 0.07%
Vincent Jackson TB -0.78% -0.19 -0.49% -1.45% -0.59 -0.63%
Alshon Jeffery CHI -0.24% 0 -0.26% -0.19% -0.15 -0.29%
Greg Jennings MIN -1.22% -0.26 -0.48% -2.35% -0.3 -0.43%
Andre Johnson HOU 1.23% 0.06 -0.68% -1.62% -0.57 -0.92%
Calvin Johnson DET 0.51% 0.31 0.22% 0.86% 0.1 -0.02%
Steve Johnson SF 6.14% 0.9 0.94% 5.93% 0.82 0.9%
James Jones OAK 0.95% -0.15 -0.17% 0.81% -0.21 -0.2%
Julio Jones ATL 1.43% 0.31 -0.27% 3.04% 0.27 -0.52%
Brandon LaFell NE -0.16% 0.02 0.45% -0.31% -0.04 0.42%
Jarvis Landry MIA 2.49% -0.04 -0.19% 2.32% -0.11 -0.23%
Jeremy Maclin PHI 0.04% 0.25 0.72% 1.66% 0.65 0.93%
Brandon Marshall CHI -0.57% -0.22 0.34% -4.89% -0.73 0.03%
Jordan Matthews PHI 0.2% -0.12 0.43% 0.06% -0.19 0.4%
Jordy Nelson GB 1.73% 0.55 1.01% 4.3% 0.78 1%
Rueben Randle NYG -0.43% -0.34 -0.48% 0.84% -0.39 -0.66%
Emmanuel Sanders DEN 1.25% 0.26 0.3% 1.13% 0.2 0.27%
Mohamed Sanu CIN 0.03% 0.14 0.05% 1.46% 0.54 0.09%
Cecil Shorts JAX -0.02% -0.18 -0.66% 1.01% -0.23 -0.68%
Steve Smith BAL 0.68% 0.23 0.01% 0.55% 0.18 -0.02%
Torrey Smith BAL -1.91% -0.23 0.48% -1.21% -0.25 0.65%
Kenny Stills NO -0.99% -0.1 -0.65% 2.16% 0.09 -0.66%
Golden Tate DET 1.7% 0.35 -0.29% 1.58% 0.29 -0.32%
Demaryius Thomas DEN 1.96% 0.56 0.38% 3.54% 0.59 0.08%
Mike Wallace MIA 0.24% 0 0.68% 1.77% 0.18 0.9%
Sammy Watkins BUF -0.59% -0.05 0.13% -0.71% -0.1 0.09%
Reggie Wayne IND -0.45% -0.19 -0.48% -3.08% -0.53 -0.51%
Markus Wheaton PIT -0.98% -0.25 -0.46% 0.01% -0.16 -0.4%
Roddy White ATL -0.65% -0.19 -0.02% -3.42% -0.57 -0.08%
Terrance Williams DAL -1.79% -0.23 0.57% -0.92% -0.2 0.67%
Robert Woods BUF -1.2% -0.41 -0.47% 0.35% -0.34 -0.36%
Kendall Wright TEN -0.2% -0.27 0.08% -2.54% -0.41 0.34%

Again, WRs I've previously identified as buy-low candidates (i.e., Marques Colston, Brandon Marshall, and Roddy White) or sell-high candidates (i.e., Jeremy Maclin, Jordy Nelson and Dez Bryant) remain same. Here are a few new additions:

standard sell-high candidate: martavis bryant

From the table, we can see that Bryant is clearly the yellow in Pittsburgh's black-and-yellow pass offense. Antonio Brown may be overachieving in his own right, but Bryant's currently in the midst of an almost-certainly unsustainable run of yardage and touchdowns: His 3.65 YPRR is nearly two yards better than the league average of 1.86, and his 7.06% TDPRR is over four times the league average. To put that further into perspective, Randy Moss has the highest career TDPRR in my database, which dates back to 2007, and Bryant's is currently two-and-a-half times higher than Moss's (2.68%). Don't get me wrong, Bryan'ts a supremely talented WR who figures to be a cornerstone of Pittsburgh's pass offense for years to come. It's just that, over time, there's practically zero chance that he stays on his current YPRR and TDPRR paces.

ppr buy-low candidate: davante adams

In an offense with that much firepower, it's no surprise that a rookie wideout isn't receiving as much attention from Aaron Rodgers as are Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. But therein lies the rub: Just as Nelson's wild True RPRR overperformance is likely to abate at some point, Adams' underperformance is likely to as well. In other words, Adams is likely to directly benefit from Nelson's RTM in the PPR department. The underlying mechanism here is Targets per Route Run (TPRR): Adams has run only 70 fewer routes than Nelson, but he's been on the receiving end of 48 fewer targets. Indeed, league-average TPRR is 18.9%, and Adams' is 14.5%, while Nelson's is 26.7%.

tight ends

And finally, below is the table for Footballguys' Top 36 TEs Forward (Top 6 underachievers are highlighted in green, while Top 6 overachievers are highlighted in yellow):

Name Tm 2014 Only Career w/ Tm
RPRR +/- YPRR +/- TDPRR +/- RPRR +/- YPRR +/- TDPRR +/-
Dwayne Allen IND -0.94% 0.09 1.33% -0.47% -0.03 0.25%
Jace Amaro NYJ 2.12% -0.05 -0.35% 2.1% -0.09 -0.29%
Martellus Bennett CHI 1.19% 0.15 0.13% 0.06% 0 -0.08%
Jordan Cameron CLE -2.03% 0.35 -0.56% -0.26% -0.03 -0.19%
Brent Celek PHI -1.84% -0.27 -1.17% -0.04% 0 -0.08%
Scott Chandler BUF -1.93% -0.22 -0.8% -0.39% -0.05 -0.12%
Charles Clay MIA 0.17% -0.15 -0.48% -0.06% -0.05 -0.06%
Jared Cook STL -0.46% 0.11 -0.79% -0.26% 0.03 -0.24%
Owen Daniels BAL 1.08% 0 -0.1% 1.06% -0.04 -0.04%
Vernon Davis SF -2.93% -0.44 -0.38% -0.1% 0 0.04%
Larry Donnell NYG 0.58% -0.09 0.25% -0.02% -0.17 0.11%
Eric Ebron DET -3.42% -0.49 -0.52% -3.44% -0.53 -0.45%
Zach Ertz PHI -1% 0.08 -0.43% -0.09% 0.08 -0.06%
Gavin Escobar DAL -0.69% 0.02 3.04% -2.55% -0.22 1.07%
Coby Fleener IND -2.5% -0.22 0.08% -0.73% -0.1 -0.16%
Antonio Gates SD -0.02% 0.09 1.49% 0.01% 0.01 0.06%
Garrett Graham HOU -4.31% -0.58 -1.15% -0.73% -0.14 -0.21%
Jimmy Graham NO 3.12% 0.3 0.75% 0.45% 0.08 0.26%
Ladarius Green SD 0.3% 0.29 -1.31% -0.38% 0.39 -0.16%
Jermaine Gresham CIN 1.16% -0.2 -1.12% -0.01% -0.04 -0.1%
Rob Gronkowski NE 3.63% 0.7 1.43% 0.49% 0.14 0.54%
Clay Harbor JAX -0.63% -0.12 -0.76% -0.36% -0.07 -0.4%
Travis Kelce KC 3.83% 0.66 0.71% 3.81% 0.62 0.78%
Lance Kendricks STL 1.57% -0.13 1.61% -0.28% -0.08 -0.07%
Marcedes Lewis JAX 1.53% 0.42 0.43% -0.16% -0.02 -0.08%
Heath Miller PIT -0.79% -0.11 -0.59% -0.02% -0.01 -0.08%
Greg Olsen CAR 0.65% 0.19 0.01% 0.01% 0 -0.05%
Niles Paul WAS 2.09% 0.57 -0.72% 0.13% 0.24 -0.51%
Jordan Reed WAS 6.66% 0.45 -1.29% 3.14% 0.28 -0.32%
Mychal Rivera OAK -0.29% -0.25 -0.23% -0.48% -0.16 -0.12%
Kyle Rudolph MIN -1.25% -0.32 -0.24% -0.32% -0.11 0.1%
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB -2.62% -0.35 -0.37% -2.64% -0.39 -0.31%
Julius Thomas DEN 0.11% -0.01 2.1% -0.16% -0.1 2.04%
Delanie Walker TEN 0.31% 0.19 0.02% -0.13% -0.05 -0.02%
Luke Willson SEA -4.8% -0.66 -0.56% -1.99% -0.23 -0.51%
Jason Witten DAL -0.07% -0.04 -0.31% 0.18% 0.02 -0.06%
Timothy Wright NE 2.9% 0.25 1.44% 2.88% 0.2 1.51%

ppr buy-low candidate: austin seferian-jenkins

There are a few things working in favor of trading for Mr. S-J. (Excuse the shorthand, but I'm not typing out an 18-character last name if I can help it.) First, among 33 TEs that have run 150 or more routes this season, he ranks 28th in TPRR. Relatedly, the return of Josh McCown appears to have signaled the return of Mr. S-J's TPRR (22.2% in Week 10). Third, with upcoming games against Chicago and Washington, the fantasy strength of schedule for Tampa Bay tight ends is about to get much easier than it's been so far this season.

ppr sell-high candidate: travis kelce

If Mr. S-J's the definition of "decoy," then a route run by Kelce is the definition of "tipping one's hand." Kelce ranks 16th in targets even though he's only run the 33rd-most routes among TEs. That translates to an amazing stat: At 25.1%, only Rob Gronkowski (29.7%) and Jimmy Graham (25.7%) rank ahead of him in TPRR. Clearly, Alex Smith and Andy Reid trust Kelce; and for good reason. However, unlike Gronkowski and Graham, who play nearly every snap, there will come a time -- perhaps soon, perhaps not -- when opposing defenses realize that Kelce's presence on the field means he's highly likely to be targeted. When that happens, his RPRR will come back down to earth.

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Tags:
Player Articles QB RB TE WR Stats strategy Davante Adams Martavis Bryant Travis Kelce Aaron Rodgers
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