Just one season ago, Doug Martin's ADP placed him as the number-two overall selection. He was fresh off his rookie campaign that found him ranked third among running backs, posting 319-1454-11 on the ground and 49-472-1 in the air. At only 24 years of age, he was an elite RB1 that it seemed you could not go wrong with. Unfortunately, that wasn't the case. Martin struggled to the tune of a 3.59 yards-per-carry and ranked as the 20th running back in total fantasy points before his season ended due to a shoulder injury after just seven weeks.
Martin's Career Statistics
| YR | TM | G | RSH | YD | Y/R | TD | TARG | REC | YD | TD | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | TB | 16 | 319 | 1454 | 4.56 | 11 | 70 | 49 | 472 | 1 | 3 |
| 2013 | TB | 6 | 127 | 456 | 3.59 | 1 | 24 | 12 | 66 | 0 | 56 |
| Total | --- | 22 | 446 | 1910 | 4.28 | 12 | 94 | 61 | 538 | 1 | --- |
| 16 Game Averages | --- | 16 | 324 | 1389 | 4.28 | 8.7 | 68 | 44 | 391 | 0.7 | --- |
Through the early part of the 2013 season, Martin was on pace for a historical amount of touches. He averaged nearly 27 touches per game over the first four weeks, which projects to 428 over a full, sixteen-game season, before dropping to an average of 25.4 touches after his fifth game, which still projects for a lofty 406 touches over a full season. That sheer number of touches helped Martin maintain fantasy value while his efficiency struggled and he could not reach the end zone. With that being said, his performance may not have been as atrocious as his yards-per-carry made it seem.
Martin's 2013 Game Log
| WK | OPP | OPP VS RSH | RSH | YD | Y/R | TD | TARG | REC | YD | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 1st | 24 | 65 | 2.71 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 2 | NO | 28th | 29 | 144 | 4.97 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | NE | 24th | 20 | 88 | 4.40 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| 4 | ARI | 3rd | 27 | 45 | 1.67 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| 6 | PHI | 6th | 16 | 67 | 4.19 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| 7 | ATL | 31st | 11 | 47 | 4.27 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Martin did only exhibit a sub-4.0 yards-per-carry in two of the six games: Week 4 versus the Arizona Cardinals and Week 1 versus the New York Jets. Both of those defenses ranked among the top-three run stopping units in 2013 and so it should come to no surprise that Martin struggled. By ommitting just the Arizona game from Martin's game log, his yards-per-carry rises to a more respectable 4.11; removing the New York game as well boosts it to 4.55, which is right in line with his stellar rookie campaign. Neither the Cardinals, nor the Jets are on the Buccaneers 2014 schedule. That's enough recollection on Martin's past however...
A new era has begun in Tampa Bay, with Lovie Smith entering as the new Head Coach and bringing aboard Jeff Tedford as his offensive coordinator. As part of the Coaching Carousel series, we dove into the past of Tedford, examining his offensive tendencies and how that may affect the Buccaneers offense. One of the most notable conclusions discovered was Tedford's allegience to the running game; his offenses ran the football on 54% of their offensive plays. In comparison, the NFL average and also the Buccaneers' average over the past two seasons, both sit at 43.6%.
Another promising sign for Martin is that the lead backs under Tedford have averaged 18 carries per game, which would translate to 294 over a full sixteen-game season. While that would be a drop-off from the 20.25 carries that Martin has averaged per game in his career so far, it still would have ranked third among running backs in 2013. Use in the passing game has been harder to come by for running backs under Tedford; the sixteen-game average for his lead backs sits at a lowly 28 receptions - a blow to Martin's value in PPR leagues.
With the 69th overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, the Buccaneers selected Charles Sims, a running back out of West Virginia. That selection has led to worry about Martin's usage and Tedford has even expressed his plans to use multiple backs:
"When I was at (the University of California) we were always very fortunate to have two very good backs, whether it was J.J. Arrington and Marshawn Lynch or Lynch and Justin Forsett, or Lynch and Jahvid Best or Best and Shane Vereen. We really had a good one-two punch in the backfield there and I think that’s what you need. For one guy to carry the load the whole time, especially as physical as this level is, is a lot."
There is nothing but truth in that qoute and we fully believe that the Buccaneers will use two backs this season. However, as Tedford mentioned, he used two backs all throughout his time at California and during that time, the sixteen-game average of his lead backs still stood at 294 carries while his second backs averaged more than eight carries per game en route to a sixteen-game average of 132 carries.
Sims wasn't the only skill player drafted by the team to add some firepower though; Mike Evans, a wide receiver from Texas A&M, was selected in the first round and then Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, a tight end from the University of Washington, was drafted in the second round. Evans is expected to be inserted opposite Vincent Jackson from the start and should help clear the box for a more effective running game. Sefarian-Jenkins has the opportunity to earn a starting job as well and at 6'5", 262 lbs would help anchor the edge in the running game.
The offensive line is somewhat questionable - the uncertainty of former All-Pro guard, Carl Nicks, who was forced out of play in Week 4 of 2013 due to MRSA has attributed to that. Footballguys' own, Matt Bitonti, recently graded their offensive line as a "below average unit," but also exclaimed that they "could make a serious move up the rankings, should the guard positions settle down and the new starters at center and left tackle play to their potential."
Positives
- The running game has been the foundation of Tedford's offenses
- Lead running backs under Tedford at California averaged roughly 20 touches per game
- The additions of Evans and Sefarian-Jenkins should help to open up the running game
Negatives
- Running backs under Tedford have historically not played a major role in the passing game
- The arrival of Sims may end the workhorse days for Martin
- Questionable offensive line play may inhibit the entire offenses' potential
Final Thoughts
Currently, Martin's ADP places him in the mid-to-late second round as the 12th running back being drafted and the Footballguys' consensus rankings have Martin tied with LeVeon Bell as the ninth-ranked runner in standard leagues. He should find himself back on the good side of the 4.00 yards-per-carry mark and while he may no longer handle the workhorse volume as he has done in the past, as the lead back under Tedford, he remains a threat to notch 300 or more touches - a mark that only nine running backs reached last season. It may be a far-cry from his number-two overall ADP last season, but Martin is fairly priced in the mid-to-late second round of standard scoring leagues, where his reward begins to outweigh the risks. In PPR leagues, the fair price point is roughly a round later.
2014 Projections
My Projections
| G | RSH | YD | Y/R | TD | REC | YD | Y/R | TD | FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 276 | 1182 | 4.28 | 7.0 | 36 | 298 | 8.3 | 1.2 | 194.6 |
David Dodds' Projections
| G | RSH | YD | Y/R | TD | REC | YD | Y/R | TD | FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 245 | 1017 | 4.15 | 9.0 | 32 | 224 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 186.1 |
Other Viewpoints
Marcus Grant of NFL.com is uneasy about investing a first or second round pick in Matrin...
Oh, you want more? Okay. If you're talking about backs who'll face timeshares in 2014, Martin is chief among them. Buccaneers offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford has repeatedly said that he plans to rotate running backs in his scheme. What makes that even more likely is that Tedford's other options -- Mike James and Bobby Rainey -- were both very productive rushers when they had opportunities last year. Plus, Tampa could throw the ball more with its massive trio of Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Martin will still be the lead back in Tampa Bay's offense, but with the prospect of his touches being diminished, I'd target him in the third round or later.
For KFFL, Tim Heaney warns that Martin should be considered more as an RB2...
Martin has allure as a bounce-back candidate after an inconsistent six-game 2013, ended by shoulder surgery. The knock on him coming into that year was his erratic production, and now on top of him proving he's 100 percent, Tampa Bay wants to run a rotation with Charles Sims, Mike James and Bobby Rainey also involved. Martin is the first choice, but be careful not to assume he'll return to cumulative RB1 glory. He's more of an RB2 most of the time with potential to disappoint.
If Tedford plans for a complete RBBC, sure it negatively impacts Martin’s fantasy value. But it has to be overblown and it still doesn’t crush his value. It’s pretty clear Martin won’t be seeing the insane 368 touches he did as a rookie. But 300+ still isn’t out of the question.