The tenth overall selection of the 2009 NFL Draft, Michael Crabtree, has had quite the turbulent start in the NFL. In just five seasons with the San Francisco 49ers, he has been written off as a bust, resurrected his career, suffered a serious leg injury, and is now eyeing a comeback season with the hopes of securing a long-term deal.
Crabtree's Career Statistics
| Year | Team | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | FPR* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | SF | 11 | 48 | 625 | 13.02 | 2 | 65 |
| 2010 | SF | 16 | 55 | 741 | 13.47 | 6 | 35 |
| 2011 | SF | 15 | 73 | 880 | 12.05 | 4 | 33 |
| 2012 | SF | 16 | 85 | 1105 | 13.00 | 9 | 14 |
| 2013 | SF | 5 | 19 | 284 | 14.95 | 1 | 109 |
*Final positional rank; the players ranking in total fantasy points at their position
It took until his fourth season in the NFL for Crabtree to finally eclipse the 1000 receiving yards threshold. Not coincidentally, that breakthrough was accompanied by Colin Kaepernick's emergence as San Francisco's starting quarterback. The momemtum carried throughout the playoffs where Crabtree averaged 6.7-95.0-1.0 during the team's three-game run that ended with a loss to the Baltimore Ravens in the Super Bowl.
Let's delve a little deeper into the relationship between the young quarterback and his go-to receiver:
Crabtree's Game Log With Kaepernick Starting
| Year | Week | Opp | TA | REC | YDS | Y/R | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 11 | CHI | 4 | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 1 |
| 2012 | 12 | @NO | 5 | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| 2012 | 13 | @STL | 10 | 7 | 101 | 14.4 | 0 |
| 2012 | 14 | MIA | 10 | 9 | 93 | 10.3 | 0 |
| 2012 | 15 | @NE | 12 | 7 | 107 | 15.3 | 2 |
| 2012 | 16 | @SEA | 9 | 4 | 65 | 16.3 | 0 |
| 2012 | 17 | ARZ | 11 | 8 | 172 | 21.5 | 2 |
| 2012 | DP | GB | 11 | 9 | 119 | 13.2 | 2 |
| 2012 | CC | @ATL | 7 | 6 | 57 | 9.5 | 0 |
| 2012 | SB | BLT | 10 | 5 | 109 | 21.8 | 1 |
| 2013 | 13 | STL | 4 | 2 | 68 | 34 | 0 |
| 2013 | 14 | SEA | 8 | 4 | 40 | 10 | 0 |
| 2013 | 15 | @TB | 6 | 5 | 45 | 9 | 1 |
| 2013 | 16 | ATL | 7 | 5 | 102 | 20.4 | 0 |
| 2013 | 17 | @ARZ | 5 | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| 2013 | WC | @GB | 13 | 8 | 125 | 15.6 | 0 |
| 2013 | DP | @CAR | 7 | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| 2013 | CC | @SEA | 8 | 4 | 52 | 13 | 0 |
After recording just three receptions in each of the first two games that Crabtree and Kaepernick started together, they seemed to hit stride in Week 13 and then did not look back; Crabtree recorded at least 93 receiving yards in six of the final eight games, eclipsing 100 in five of those contests. When asked why he played so well with Kaepernick, Crabtree answered:
"I think he trusted me more. Playing wide rece\iver, you need a quarterback who trusts you. I feel like he trusted me."
Rightfully so, there was much optimism for the 2013 season. Tragically, Crabtree suffered a torn Achilles tendon during OTAs, which came with a recovery timetable of six months at minimum. A tribute to his work ethic, he was able to return to action right on schedule for the 49ers Week 13 matchup versus the St. Louis Rams. It did take some time for him to get reacclimated though as he averaged just 3.7 catches for 51 yards in his first three games. Those averages did then rise to 4.6 receptions and 66.8 yards over the final five games, which included three matchups versus defenses that ranked among the top-six in Net Yards Per Pass Attempt.
The following table provides a clearer view of Crabtree's production with Kaepernick as it relates to fantasy football:
Crabtree's Production With Kaepernick Starting
| YEAR | SPAN | TGT | REC | YDS | Y/R | TD | STD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Per Gm | 8.9 | 6.1 | 88.0 | 14.43 | 0.8 | 13.6 | 19.7 |
| Per 16 Gms | 142.4 | 97.6 | 1408.0 | 14.43 | 12.8 | 217.6 | 315.2 | |
| 2013 | Per Gm | 7.3 | 4.3 | 60.9 | 14.32 | 0.1 | 6.8 | 11.1 |
| Per 16 Gms | 116.0 | 68.0 | 974.0 | 14.32 | 2.0 | 109.4 | 177.4 | |
|
12-13 |
Per Gm | 8.2 | 5.3 | 75.9 | 14.39 | 0.5 | 10.6 | 15.9 |
| Per 16 Gms | 130.7 | 84.4 | 1215.1 | 14.39 | 8.0 | 169.5 | 254.0 |
The first thing that should jump out is just how productive Crabtree was in 2012 during the 10 games after Kaepernick took over the starting job. The total fantasy points of 217.6 in standard scoring and 315.2 in PPR scoring would have had an average final rank of third at wide receiver in both formats over the past three seasons. There was a big drop-off in 2013; some of that can be attributed to Crabtree returning from the torn Achilles tendon, while the presence of Anquan Boldin may have also had an effect. Even so, the 68 receptions and 974 receiving yards would have still placed him in the high-end WR3 range when considering touchdown regression.
Heading into 2014, Crabtree is expected to have regained his pre-injury form and Kaepernick recently indicated that a lot of progress has already been made:
“At the end of last year he still wasn’t 100 percent. He has a lot more burst to him now. Looks really good.”
Positives
- At 26 years of age, and turning 27 in September, he is in the prime of his athletic career
- His explosiveness is returning and can be expected to regain his 2012 form
- Displayed strong work ethic in recovery and has added motivation to secure a lucrative, long-term contract
- The offense is primed to shift towards a more balanced attack, leading to more pass attempts
Negatives
- Increased depth of the receiving corps may lower his market share in the passing offense
- The NFC West boasts the best defenses of any division, including two late matchups versus Seattle in crucial fantasy weeks
Final Thoughts
CRABTREE'S PRODUCTION WITH KAEPERNICK STARTING X VARYING NUMBER OF TARGETS
| TA | REC | YDS | Y/R | TD | STD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 64.6 | 929.7 | 14.39 | 6.1 | 129.7 | 194.3 |
| 110 | 71.0 | 1022.7 | 14.39 | 6.7 | 142.7 | 213.7 |
| 120 | 77.5 | 1115.6 | 14.39 | 7.3 | 155.6 | 233.1 |
| 130 | 83.9 | 1208.6 | 14.39 | 8.0 | 168.6 | 252.6 |
| 140 | 90.4 | 1301.6 | 14.39 | 8.6 | 181.6 | 272.0 |
As a reminder, Crabtree was on a 116 target pace in 2013. If he were to drop off to as few as 100 targets, his production would still have been worthy of a wide receiver on the WR2/3 border over the past three seasons. At 120 targets, which is still below his 130 target pace all time with Kaepernick, his production would have placed him in squarely in the mid-WR2 range over the past three seasons. Even with new additions to the receiving corps, 120 targets is a fair expectaction for him.
According the the most recent ADP, Crabtree is being drafted as the 17th wide receiver off of the board and he also ranks as the 19th wide receiver in the Footballguys' Consensus Rankings. At that current ADP, there may not be much value to be had, but as a consolation, he should still provide WR3 production even if he underperforms. With that being said, Kaepernick has still not shaken his tendency to lock onto one receiver and if he falls into the same routine, Crabtree may push for 130 targets with the potential to encroach on WR1 territory.
2014 Projections
My Projections
| G | REC | YD | Y/R | TD | FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 77 | 1073 | 13.94 | 6.9 | 148.0 |
David Dodds' Projections
| G | REC | YD | Y/R | TD | FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 66 | 884 | 13.39 | 6.0 | 122.4 |
Other Viewpoints
The play-calling for the 49ers also impacts the receivers. According to MFL's data, Crabtree is being taken ahead of Wes Welker (of the pass-happy Broncos), Michael Floyd (of the pass-happy Cardinals) and Roddy White (the criminally underrated receiver for the pass-happy Falcons). Crabtree isn't that much better than any of those players, but even so, it's optimistic to think that he'll see a high volume of targets in this offense.
Rotoworld's Evan Silva is excited about Crabtree's potential...
Give Crabtree a momentary pass for last year's Achilles'-wrecked season. Including playoffs the season before, Crabtree piled up 61 catches for 880 yards and eight touchdowns across ten Kaepernick starts, numbers that extrapolate to 98-1,408-13 over a full 16-game schedule. That pace would've made him a top-four fantasy wideout over the course of last year. Expecting that level of production in 2014 is unrealistic on a run-first team with better weapons, but should still pique fantasy interest. Additionally, multiple beat writers have predicted the 49ers will throw more this year, and a defensive step back is likely minus Navorro Bowman and Aldon Smith. Not yet 27 and in a contract season, Crabtree offers value at his late-fourth-round ADP.
John Paulsen of 4for4 expects Crabtree to have a productive year...
Including three playoff games, Crabtree appeared in eight contests this season and averaged 4.3 catches for 61 yards and 0.13 TD. For a better indication of his potential for 2014, we should include the 10 games he played with Colin Kaepernick in 2012 (and in the 2013 playoffs). When those numbers are rolled in, Crabtree averaged 5.3 catches for 76 yards and 0.50 TD, which equates to 10.6 PPG, or strong WR2-type numbers. He looked liked himself during the 49ers' playoff run, so we're expecting a productive 2014 from the 6th-year receiver.