Week 15 brings the largest FanDuel main slate of the season, with 13 games on the board. With 26 teams in play, we can afford to be more selective than usual and focus on the very best matchups. That’s good news, because this slate offers several clear spots to attack in what shapes up as a high-scoring fantasy week.
We’ll start by breaking down the top team-level and positional matchups, with an emphasis on backfields and passing games that provide the clearest paths to tournament-winning scores. From there, we’ll go position by position and highlight the top options at each spot. Each section includes Good Chalk, featuring strong plays that are worth eating even at high ownership, and Low-Owned Targets, which spotlight players who can help your lineup stand out in large-field tournaments.
Positional Defense and Matchups Overview
My favorite way to identify potential value is by comparing each team's implied total from oddsmakers to its season scoring average. The tables below show the most favorable matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest matchups, where teams are expected to score below their 2025 average.
It also helps to combine this number with my adjusted defense-versus-position numbers. To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production using FanDuel scoring. For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but the Seahawks allow the Rams to score 25, that defense would be +5 points allowed above expectation for that week. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are reflected in the tables below.
Best Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 15 Main Slate expected to score more points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
The Week 15 slate is loaded with strong team and individual matchups. Not only do we have nine teams with a scoring boost of at least 9%, but several others with more modest Week 15 boosts still pair those numbers with elite positional matchups that align with the strengths of their offenses. Let’s spend a little more time than usual digging into these spots. At this point in the season, we generally know who to target on each offense, so the edge often comes from choosing the right teams and position groups rather than searching for surprise roles.
San Francisco
The 49ers have a massive 21% scoring boost and a 28.5-point team total against a Tennessee defense that has struggled all season. The Titans found themselves in a shootout last week against a struggling Browns offense, which does not bode well for their ability to slow down a San Francisco unit that should be as healthy as it has been all year, coming off a bye. The matchup is ideal for Christian McCaffrey against a defense allowing the fourth-most FanDuel PPG above expectation to opposing running backs. However, it is worth noting that the Titans have been better against the run since Jeffrey Simmons returned about a month ago. As we’ll discuss more in the Good Chalk section, the 49ers’ top pass catchers are also affordably priced. If Tennessee overcommits to stopping McCaffrey, Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, and George Kittle all have serious upside.
New Orleans
The Saints get a 20% Week 15 scoring boost in a rematch of a game they controlled from start to finish in Week 10. In that contest, Alvin Kamara and Devin Neal combined for 146 total yards. In the three games since that matchup, Carolina has allowed 150-plus total yards and an average of 2.0 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs. With Kamara out, Neal is firmly in play and is featured below as a lower-owned option. He handled 83% of the carries last week and ran a route on 75% of Tyler Shough’s dropbacks.
Houston
The Texans are riding a five-game winning streak and are heavy home favorites. In each of their four home wins this season, they have rushed for at least 100 yards. Woody Marks handled a career-high 26 carries last week against the Chiefs. When factoring in salary, Marks is probably my favorite overall play on the slate and is featured below as Good Chalk.
Philadelphia
The Eagles are reeling after three straight losses, but land in a clear get-right spot with a 15% Week 15 scoring boost against a Raiders defense allowing 2.3 FanDuel PPG above expectation to opposing running backs. Saquon Barkley finally broke a long run last week and could stay hot here. He’s exactly the type of player to target in tournaments, even if his base point-per-dollar projection does not jump off the page, because of his explosiveness.
New York Giants
This is a strong matchup across the board for the Giants, though the backfield split makes it challenging to roster either running back with confidence. Jaxson Dart and Wan'Dale Robinson, who is featured below, are both appealing options against a Washington defense that made J.J. McCarthy look good last week.
Baltimore
Lamar Jackson has not quite looked like himself recently, but he has historically dominated the Bengals' defense. He could bounce back in a big way in Week 15 and is priced as low as he has been in quite some time. The 2025 Bengals defense may be the worst unit the team has fielded in recent memory. Do not be surprised if Ravens-Bengals turns into another back-and-forth shootout, similar to last week’s 39-34 Bengals-Bills game or the high-scoring Bengals-Ravens matchups we saw in 2024.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have averaged 29.2 points per game this season, so their 30.2-point total is not far from the norm. However, Los Angeles has won six of its last eight games by 14 or more points, often allowing the offense to shift into a conservative second-half approach. That likely will not be the case against Detroit’s elite offense. This sets up a scenario where Matthew Stafford is forced to stay aggressive for four quarters, which is excellent news for Puka Nacua and Davante Adams against one of the league’s weakest defenses against opposing wide receivers. Stafford and Nacua are both featured below as Good Chalk.
Cincinnati
The Bengals are projected to score close to their season average, but the spot still stands out for Ja’Marr Chase. Baltimore’s biggest defensive weakness has been against opposing wide receivers, making Chase a premier ceiling play in this matchup.
Worst Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 15 Main Slate expected to score fewer points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
On a large 13-game slate with 12 teams boasting plus matchups, we want to be selective when targeting the 14 offenses above that are projected to score less than usual. One of my guiding principles this week is to let the matchups do most of the work, rather than forcing uniqueness by loading up on players in difficult spots. That said, there are still a few positional situations on teams in negative scoring environments worth attacking.
Seattle
The Seahawks are projected to score 1.8 points below their season average, yet they still carry a healthy 28.0-point team total. After a quiet game against Minnesota, Jaxon Smith-Njigba bounced back in a big way last week with seven catches for 92 yards and two touchdowns against Atlanta. Indianapolis traded for Sauce Gardner in an effort to fix its pass defense, but he exited early with a calf injury. Cornerback Charvarius Ward is also out with another concussion, leaving the Colts extremely thin in the secondary. Smith-Njigba belongs in the same tier as Ja’Marr Chase and Puka Nacua among the top wide receiver plays on the slate.
Detroit
The Rams may be one of the few defenses capable of slowing Detroit’s running game and forcing the Lions into a more pass-heavy approach, especially if Los Angeles jumps out to an early lead. With the Rams carrying a 30.3-point team total, Detroit is likely to be aggressive for four quarters in an effort to keep pace. Even with a negative 18% scoring boost, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams profile as strong GPP options in what could turn into a shootout-style game environment.
Quarterback
This is as flat as the projected roster percentages have been at quarterback all season. As of now, only Trevor Lawrence is projected above 9% rostered. In practical terms, there is no true chalk at the position this week, which gives us the freedom to simply play our favorite quarterbacks. Four of them stand out and are featured below.