Andre Johnson ended his OTAs holdout and reported to training camp on July 25, 2014. Unfortunately, as often happens with players who hold out of spring conditioning sessions, Johnson suffered a hamstring strain on July 28 and then sat out of practices on July 29 and July 30. 'I don’t know (if I will be limited). We'll see what happens,' Johnson said on July 29. 'Like I said, it's nothing that I'm seriously (worried about). Anytime you get a nick or anything, you know, you worry about it.'
Before investing a draft pick in Johnson, make sure that his hamstring strain is a thing of the past. If soft tissue injuries are not allowed to heal properly, they can become nagging issues, so proceed with caution until you're sure Johnson is healthy again.
Aside from the recent hamstring strain, we are in unfamiliar territory with Johnson, who established a long string of dominant performances in Houston while catching passes from Matt Schaub during a six year run from 2008-2013. Johnson has gone over 1,200 yards receiving in five of the last six seasons, and has posted over 1,400 yards receiving in four of the last six campaigns, with 181 targets for 109/1,407/5 receving last year. However, all that rapport is history as the Texans' season fell apart last year, and Schaub ended up first benched and then was traded away to Oakland during the offseason. Gary Kubiak got fired after the team's collapse, clearing the way for new head coach/offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien to take over the Texans' team and offensive personnel.
Johnson wasn't happy with the way the changes occurred, though he had publicly feuded with Schaub before Schaub departed town. Johnson held out of all OTAs (but failed to get his contract terms changed), which has set up a situation in which Johnson has little-to-no chemistry with Fitzpatrick so far - and now at the start of training camp, Johnson is sidelined due to his sore hamstring, further delaying necessary reps with Fitzpatrick. Both players are seasoned veterans so they should (hopefully) be able to meld quickly, but if Johnson misses a lot of camp there could be problems on the horizon.
Looking at Fitzpatrick's track record in the NFL, we see a streaky quarterback who usually explodes for two-to-three 300+ yards-passing games per season, but a guy who is more often in the 220-260 yards passing per game region. Fitzpatrick also has a history of posting four-to-five sub-200 yards passing games per year, so there will be days when the receiving pie in Houston is relatively modest.
Fitzpatrick's best season as a fantasy quarterback was during 2011 while in Buffalo (353/569 for 3,832 yards passing, 24 TDs with 23 interceptions, and 56/208/0 rushing). That year, Fitzpatrick had three 300+ yards passing outings, highlighted by 27/40 for 369 yards passing, two TDs and two interceptions (week three) but also six games under 200 yards passing, with the poorest showing being 20/31 for 146 yards, one TD and three interceptions (week 10).
Coach O'Brien has quite a track record as a quarterbacks' coach/offensive coach, serving in New England as the offensive assitant during 2007, wide receivers coach in 2008, and then quarterbacks' coach from 2009-2010 before coordinating the 2011 offense - from 2009-2011 Tom Brady put up 371/565 for 4,398 yards passing, 28 TDs and 13 interceptions; 324/492 for 3,900 yards passing, 36 TDs and four interceptions; and finally 401/611 for 5,235 yards passing, 39 TDs and 12 interceptions (Brady had his career-best year as a passer during O'Briens year as offensive coordinator). It's also worth noting that O'Brien saw Fitzpatrick twice a year from 2009-2011 while O'Brien worked for New England - and now the Texans have signed Fitzpatrick to start for O'Brien during 2014. We'll see if O'Brien can smooth out the wild variances in Fitzpatrick's performances from week-to-week.
Circling back to Johnson, you can see there are going to be some select 'boom' days for the Houston passing attack with Fitzpatrick under center, and there will likely be several mediocre outings. On the good days, Johnson should thrive - but even on so-so Sunday afternoons, Johnson should receive a steady diet of passes, given the lack of depth at wide receiver behind Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins. Keshawn Martin (68 targets for 32/338/3 receiving over his two year career) and DeVier Posey (41 targets for 21/242/0 during Posey's first two NFL seasons) are not exactly household names, for good reason. Johnson should approach the 170+ targets that we've seen for him during his best seasons in Houston because he's one of the few NFL-caliber receivers on this team (Johnson, Hopkins and tight end Garrett Graham will join Arian Foster as Fitzpatrick's top options during 2014). Considering that Brady threw over 600 attempts under coach O'Briens' leadership back in 2011, it is not a stretch to look for over 500 attempts from Fitzpatrick/Houston quarterbacks this year. There will be plenty of targets to share between Johnson and the other three top players on offense.
Positives
- Johnson is the unquestioned #1 wide receiver in Houston
- Coach O'Brien/Fitzpatrick should be able to mount a respectable passing attack this year
- Johnson has a proven track record of making his quarterbacks look good, with a career 60.7 reception rate (1,527 targets for 927/12,661/61 receiving) and a career average of 13.7 yards per reception. 60% of 170 targets is 102 receptions (potentially)
Negatives
- Johnson held out of OTAs and then tweaked his hamstring early in training camp - he has very few reps with Fitzpatrick/in O'Brien's offense as of July 31, 2014
- Johnson is 33 years old with 11 grueling NFL seasons on his frame - he's nearer the end of his career than the beginning
- Johnson's disgruntled attitude may adversely affect his performance during 2014
Final Thoughts
Though Johnson skipped OTAs, most veterans hate risking their health in meaningless practice sessions anyway. As long as Johnson gets back on the field early in training camp and has time to absorb the Texans' new offense, I see no reason to panic over his holdout. It's true that Fitzpatrick is a streaky performer, but if any coach can settle Fitzpatrick down, it is O'Brien. There are enough pieces on offense for Johnson and Fitzpatrick to have a solid season together.
Projections
170 targets for 100/1,400/7 receiving
