Sunday Morning Update:
Check back around 10AM EST for any updates to the Primary Cash Lineup or overall slate thoughts.
What is Cracking FanDuel?
Since we’ve been doing this article for a while now, and there are always some new people, I’m going to give a little bit of history of Cracking FanDuel. I’m Devin Knotts, and I started a version of this as a blog (when those were still a thing) back in 2017. I started at Footballguys in 2015, primarily covering college football at the time, but I have been a DFS player dating back to 2010.
This is a “Cash Game” article. So what is a “cash game”? It is a term that came from poker, but essentially, it is a contest in which you’re looking to double your money. Either an H2H contest or a 50/50 contest, where the top half of the entries get paid.
Cracking FanDuel is a look into my cash game process and how I’m ultimately thinking about building lineups. Throughout the article's lifespan, we have been profitable using the “Primary Cash Lineup,” one of the three lineups provided. That is the primary purpose of this article. The Cash + lineup is a fun lineup that can be used in a little bit larger contest, think 20-200 people. At the same time, the GPP lineup is an optimal lineup using our Multi-Lineup Optimizer that fits in the favorite plays of the week.
Neither the Cash+ nor the GPP lineup has the amount of time or the success rate that the Primary Cash Lineup has. I’ve spent most of my DFS history playing cash games with far more success than GPPs. Despite having six live final entries and several GPP wins, I've found that I no longer chase these things, as I’ve come to love the craft of hand-building and rooting for my players just as much as I do against my opponents. In a GPP format, the thrill is unbelievable, but I found myself consumed by the highs and lows of the game. About 90% of my weekly bankroll each week gets put into the cash game format, while I’ll still take about 10% of my bankroll and enter it into a lottery ticket GPP contest.
2025 Recap
2025 was the worst in this article’s nine-year history. As bad as it was, it ended even worse health-wise, as Weeks 17 and 18 I was in the hospital for 6 days with shingles in my eye, which is among the most serious versions of shingles. Thankfully my vision is 95% returned and outside of the occasional flare-up, I’m fully ready to go this season.
2026 Outlook
This season, I’ll be doing some exciting things. I’m going to be covering both DraftKings and FanDuel articles, which is exciting to compare and contrast the differences each week. Playing on both sites can create a distinct advantage, as there are weeks in which some sites have a significant edge compared to the other. For example, there are generally multiple weeks in which FanDuel screws up the pricing so badly that it creates 3-4 players that are must starts in cash games. Meanwhile, DraftKings often has much tighter pricing, but that can lead to weeks where you’re just not comfortable building a lineup around a player that you absolutely love.
Cash Game Strategy- Week 1 Tip- The Rookie Trap
Last season was frustrating for a number of reasons. Nothing was more frustrating than the success that the duplicate train lineups had which was something we had not seen in many seasons. There were a number of reasons for the success of these, but no bigger than the impact that Emeka Egbuka had early on last year. This is year 16 of playing DFS for me, and year 10 of this article. I’ve built a reputation for being slow to play rookies and those with offseason buzz. The “breakout” darling of the fantasy analysts often doesn’t come true when it comes to DFS, but when it does, it is going to be a painful season. Nothing was more evident than when Emeka Egbuka scored five touchdowns in his first five games last season. I continued to fade him, as the lack of red zone targets were not sustainable for his success, and ultimately, he had just one touchdown in his next 12 games, but at that point starting as slow as I did was a spiraling snowball effect.
This season, that same risk applies for players like Carnell Tate. If he’s a player that people are going to be high on this season, I will gladly fade him for the first few weeks of the season. This isn’t stubbornness; it’s not overreacting. People saw the 2024 success of Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers and immediately overreacted to taking rookies last year as Tet McMillan and Emeka Egbuka were among the most popular players every week. The reality, however, is that for every Thomas/Nabers, there are Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall, Xavier Legette, etc who were also heavily played in 2024.
We will see how the field reacts to a player like Tate. I suspect he will not be as popular as Egbuka was last season, simply because of the offense and the questions for Cam Ward, but don’t be surprised if the field jumps all over rookies after one good game. There will be weeks where players like KC Concepion, Makai Lemon, Omar Cooper Jr., or Jordyn Tyson get popular.
Evaluate these rookies on a case-by-case basis. Did that player's role change? Did they just get fortunate luck like Egbuka got early last season? What do their targets look like, especially red-zone targets?
Injuries Create Opportunity:
It used to be that Week 1 had some horrific pricing due to injuries that occurred in the preseason. Preseason injuries are much less frequent now compared to the past, so there are not many injuries ahead of Week 1.
Alvin Kamara looks like he will play this week after coming into the week being more doubtful than questionable. Kamara was a full participant on Friday, which helps the Saints and gives them another playmaker, but it does greatly impact Travis Etienne Jr.’s upside as the bell-cow running back this week.
Tua Tagovailoa will miss this week with an oblique injury, while Michael Penix Jr. will miss with a knee. This leaves Cooper Rush as the Falcons' starting quarterback. While Rush is capable, the biggest impact to this offense is that they’ve been preparing for a left-handed quarterback with either Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr.. Now with starting a right-handed Rush, the entire playbook looks slightly different. Everything is a little bit backward, and how the offense will deal with that is a big question.
Rome Odunze is questionable with a calf injury. This is a critical injury, as if he were to miss, Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland move from good plays to must starts.
Brock Bowers will miss for the Raiders. Michael Mayer will get the start, while Tre Tucker should see an upgrade at the wide receiver position this week as the returning leading receiver should see a significant workload with Kirk Cousins at quarterback.
2026 Week 1 Strategy
Historically on FanDuel, the successful strategy was to pay up for running backs and find the mid-tier wide receivers that were underpriced. While the elite running backs still scored more than the elite wide receivers because of the 0.5 PPR, the gap between the top two wide receivers and the rest of the field was staggering last year. Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba were nearly must plays every week. For reference, Nacua scored 328 FanDuel points in 16 games last season which is 20.5 per game. The seventh-highest receiver had 119 points less than that, as Zay Flowers had just 209 FanDuel points. Long story short, the drop off from the truly elite wide receivers was massive last year and it was a scenario where in order to have success you had to have one or often both if you could afford it.
Interestingly in 2024, there was one wide receiver who separated himself clearly from the group which was Ja’Marr Chase who had 73 more points than the number two highest scoring wide receiver on FanDuel, while the rest of the wide receivers were more closely bunched. Chase finished as the fourth-highest scoring wide receiver despite Joe Burrow playing only eight games last season.
So, what does this mean for this week where there is no Smith-Njigba or Nacua? For me, I’m going to try to target the truly elite wide receivers almost every week until the strategy doesn’t work or the price gets too high. If Ja’Marr Chase gets back to 2024 levels, he’s far too cheap at $8,900, and provides a massive advantage compared to your competition. For the rest of the wide receivers, I’m going to try to avoid chasing the top 3-6 wide receivers. These are players like Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Drake London, CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins, A.J. Brown, etc. The problem with them, is that while they may have more upside than wide receivers 10-20, the price that you’re paying prevents you from going up at running back where the difference between a top 5 running back and a 10-20 running back can be massive.
Player Pool.
| Quarterback | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Kyler Murray | 19.1 | $7,200 | The big question with Kyler Murray is what version of him are we going to see. I'm fairly confident that last year was more of an anomoly than it was the trend. The reason for that is that the competition with J.J. McCarthy wasn't even a competition. It was pretty clear from the start that Kyler was the better quarterback. We saw what Kevin O'Connell was able to do with Sam Darnold in 2024, and with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, and T.J. Hockenson the options are tremendous for Murray. The other helpful factor here is that the Vikings seem to have an inability to run the ball as Aaron Jones Sr. is now 31 and coming off of his worst season in the NFL, while Jordan Mason is still more of a backup/change of pace type player. |
| 2 | Jared Goff | 19.8 | $7,800 | Expect Jared Goff and the Lions to be one of the higher rostered teams this week. With Detroit targeted to score 28.5 points, there's going to be a high number of people who may go with Goff, Gibbs, and Amon-Ra St. Brown and just try to get as many of those touchdowns as possible against the lowly Saints. The Saints have one of the least experienced secondaries in the NFL, as they're going to heavily rely on 2025 fourth-round pick Quincy Riley, along with 2024 second-round pick Kool-Aid McKinstry who has struggled throughout his first two seasons. At $7,600, the price is very solid, but the upside is a little bit questionable compared to a player like Kyler Murray. |
| 3 | Justin Herbert | 21.3 | $7,600 | Justin Herbert has been among the most overrated quarterbacks in recent years. Failing to throw for over 4,000 yards in each of the last three seasons, he's a far cry from his 5,014 yard season in 2022. The game has adjusted significantly since that season, and more defenses are playing two high safeties avoiding the big play. Under Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers have also become more of a run-heavy team as his pass attempts fell from 672 and 699 in the two years prior to Harbaugh, to just 504 and 512 in the two years with Harbaugh. With Mike McDaniels it remains to be seen what this offense will look like, but to pay up for Herbert at this point is relying on them to become a pass-heavy offense. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Jahmyr Gibbs | 23.4 | 9100 | Expect Jahmyr Gibbs to be nearly 100% rostered this week. All the hype for Gibbs has propelled him up as the top to the consensus number one pick in season-long drafts. This is a game where Gibbs at $9,100 is expensive, but you can fit him into your lineup based on some of the other value that exists at wide receiver and running back. |
| 2 | Marshawn Lloyd | 11 | 4900 | With the pricing released prior to Josh Jacobs being out, Marshawn Lloyd becomes one of the top value plays on this slate. Minnesota allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs last season. Lloyd is largely unknown for Green Bay, as he was their 2024 third-round pick, but has just six total carries in his two-year career as he dealt with hamstring injuries last season. Health has been a challenge, so there is some risk here, but if he can stay healthy he's extremely talented and should be able to exceed the price tag. |
| 3 | Travis Etienne Jr. | 15.1 | 6800 | With Alvin Kamara out, Travis Etienne Jr. should get the first shot at separating himself as the bell-cow running back in New Orleans. At $6,800, he's priced as if he's in a committee with Kamara, and now he's in a spot where he's going to see significant volume in what has potential to be the highest scoring game of the week. Etienne has quietly been productive throughout his career, as he's rushed for over 1,000 yards in three of his four seasons, and could have an opportunity in New Orleans to catch more passes than he did in Jacksonville. |
| 4 | Ashton Jeanty | 15.4 | 7000 | Everything Ashton Jeanty is saying is the right thing, but it's hard to trust the Raiders at the moment given the surprising Brock Bowers news that we found out happened a day earlier. Jeanty is saying his ankle feels great, and one of the keys to this season is going to be targeting running backs against Miami given their lack of ability to move the ball offensively. Jeanty was somewhat disappointing in 2025, as he averaged just 3.7 yards per carry, and failed to get to 1,000 yards. However, that 2025 Raiders team was an absolute mess, and Jeanty still caught 55 passes last season which could be even more in 2026 due to the Brock Bowers injury and just lack of receiving options that the Raiders have this season. |
| 5 | Bijan Robinson | 18.9 | 8800 | Bijan Robinson is a tricky play this week. We don't know if Tua Tagovailoa is going to play, as he suffered an oblique injury this week, and with Michael Penix Jr. not yet ready, Atlanta would likely turn to Cooper Rush. The problem here is that with Kevin Stefanski offenses, we haven't seen them have success running the ball since Nick Chubb in 2022. Robinson is obviously one of the league's best running backs, but with Atlanta going on the road to face Pittsburgh, it remains to be seen how much success they'll have moving the ball this week. It's just a steep price tag at $8,800. |
| 6 | Saquon Barkley | 16.7 | 8100 | The big question heading into this season is whether Saquon Barkley will return to his top tier form? At $8,100, he's very low priced for what is a premier matchup as the Eagles take on a Commanders team that allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs last season. This offseason, Washington did not improve, as they lost their top run-stopper and captain Bobby Wagner, replacing him with Sonny Styles. Styles may end up being a good player, but he's certainly not going to bring the level of play and leadership that Wagner brought last season. In Barkley's lone meeting against Washington last season, he had 132 yards and a touchdown, and with a new offensive coordinator we may look to see more out of Barkley in the passing game this season. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Ja'Marr Chase | 19 | 8,900 | The only concern for Chase is that he's historically been a slow starter to the season. With him coming out and making comments that he doesn't like 1PM games, that is also a concern, but one that likely has little value into his production. Chase gets to face off against what could end up being the league's worst secondary, as the Buccaneers are starting 2025 third-round pick Jacob Parrish, 2026 fourth-round pick Keionte Scott, and Zyon McCollum who is a league-average corner. Chase and the Bengals passing offense should be able to carve through this secondary this week. |
| 2 | Chris Olave | 14.5 | 7,400 | Chirs Olave seems to be going under the radar heading into the 2026 season. After an 1,100 yard season in 2025 where he was one of the most consistent receivers in the NFL, he remains affordably priced at $7,400. Olave has had to deal with quarterback issues throughout his career, but having Tyler Shough should help this passing game compared to the last few years of Spencer Rattler, Derek Carr, and Jameis Winston. Facing the Lions, the Saints are going to have to throw at a high volume to keep pace this week. |
| 3 | Luther Burden III | 12.4 | 6,400 | At $6,200, expect Burden to be the highest rostered wide receiver on this slate. Expectations could not be higher for the second-year wide receiver in this Ben Johnson offense. With Rome Odunze questionable this week, the Bears should lean heavily on Burden especially since the departure of D.J. Moore this offseason. We saw Burden have six or more targets in seven of his last eight games with only Week 18 being the one week he failed to hit that mark. At 13.9 yards per reception, he should be in a tremendous spot this week to have a big game against the Panthers. |
| 4 | Ladd McConkey | 13.5 | 6,500 | McConkey is getting a lot of love this week, as people are salivating over the matchup against Arizona in which the Chargers should be able to move the ball however they want against this defense. My concern here however is how good is McConkey? He's coming off of an extremely disappointing second season in which he had just 789 yards and six touchdowns. This offense will be as good as Justin Herbert will be, and Herbert has not thrown for 4,000 yards since 2022 as they've been a low-volume passing offense under Jim Harbaugh. That all could change with Mike McDaniels taking over the offense, but the Harbaugh philosophy of game control and running the ball are still likely to exist. |
| 5 | Carnell Tate | 11 | 5,600 | This is more of a price and upside play instead of a high confidence play. The narrative here is that the Titans will want to showcase their top 5 pick at home. Tate may end up being popular this week at $5,600, simply because people view him as having more upside than players in that price range. The reality however is this is a crowded receiving room with the overpaid Wan'Dale Robinson and Calvin Ridley still going to see some targets from the unproven Cam Ward. |
| 6 | Terry McLaurin | 10.5 | 6,200 | This is simply a talent and a price play. At $6,200, you're getting a discount because of McLaurin's disappointing 2025 where he only caught 582 yards and 3 touchdowns. However, that was in just 10 games, and if we take a per game average, that's nearly a 1,000 yard season which is something he's done in five straight seasons prior to last year. What's exciting about McLaurin is the 13 touchdowns he had in 2024 with Jayden Daniels at quarterback. If they can reconnect that success now that both are healthy, the $6,200 price point is far too low. |
| 7 | Garrett Wilson | 12.7 | 6,900 | Garrett Wilson is the type of player who is going very under-the-radar. Wilson struggled mightily along with the entire Jets offense as he had just 395 yards in 7 games last year. However, this is a player who in his first three seasons of his career had 1,000 yards and while Geno Smith is a limited quarterback, he is one of the better quarterbacks that Wilson has played with throughout his career. Wilson has the opportunity to become the clear number one receiver in this offense, but he does have more supporting cast around him as Omar Cooper Jr. and Adonai Mitchell are both talented that should free up some space for Wilson. He's just 26, and should still be improving so a breakout season is not out of the realm of possibility here. |
| 8 | Tre Tucker | 9 | 5,600 | With no Brock Bowers this week, Tre Tucker will be the primary option for the Raiders this week. While he led the team in yards last season, he did have just 696 yards in 17 games. The offense should be more productive with a rebuilt offensive line, better coaching with Klint Kubiak, and with Tucker being just 25 he should be able to build off of last season. At $5,600, he provides a nice value option that should have a relatively high floor as the team tries to find some improvement in the passing game compared to last season. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Colston Loveland | 10.9 | 6000 | Loveland is fascinating, and it's really about what you believe in this week. If you're getting the player who finished the year with 10 or more targets in each of his last four games, he's an absolute steal at $6,000. However, in his first 14 games, he had five or fewer targets in 12 of his 14 games. For a player who was the 10th overall pick in the 2025 draft, I tend to believe that we're getting a player who could be much closer to Trey McBride than the price indicates here. With Rome Odunze questionable, the Bears are relatively limited at receiving options and it's reasonable to suspect that part of the reason they got rid of D.J. Moore is because of how comfortable they were with Loveland stepping into a bigger possession role. |
| 2 | Tyler Warren | 9.9 | 5600 | Tyler Warren was unable to capture some of his red zone magic that he had at Penn State. Last season he had just four touchdowns, and three of them came in a three game stretch early in the season. His price is deflated due to the finish of his 2025 campaign as he failed to top 50 yards in each of his last seven games. The Colts are going to need him to step up this season given the departure of Michael Pittman Jr. With this being the second-year with Daniel Jones, if Warren can start out the 2026 season like he did the 2025 season, then he's going to be a player you're going to want to target this week. |
| 3 | Michael Mayer | 8.2 | 4600 | Michael Mayer is getting the historic DraftKings bump. What this means is that players who are popular on DraftKings, often end up popular on FanDuel for a number of reasons. A lot of podcasts are DraftKings focused, so people listening to them will play the same players on both sites. Also those that do play DFS on both sites are more likely to convince themselves to spend down on FanDuel given it is often the secondary focus compared to the larger DraftKings. Mayer is a fine play on FanDuel, but he's not cheap enough. At $4,600, you can find an extra $1,000 for a Tyler Warren or Kyle Pitts Sr., or even the $1,400 for Colston Loveland. If you find yourself needing to go to Mayer you can certainly do it, but he brings a much higher risk than some of the other starting tight ends |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Tennessee Titans | 9.5 | 3,200 | It would be lovely to be able to go up to the Jaguars facing Cleveland, or the Chargers taking on Arizona, but the reality is that the $3,200 price point on this week is just fine. To get a defense that is facing Geno Smith at near minimum price is always going to be intriguing. Tennessee last year was in the middle of the pack for sacks with 42, which is the same as some of the higher priced defenses on this slate such as Philadelphia, and just three less than the Chargers. Jeffery Simmons is an elite pass rusher up the middle and can cause disruption for nearly any opposing defense. |
| 2 | Jacksonville | 11.1 | 5,000 | If there's a defense that could completely break the slate, it is likely Jacksonville. With their elite pass rush led by Josh Hines-Allen, they get to face off against an offensive line that is starting five new offensive linemen. Cohesion is a big factor when it comes to offensive line play, and having Deshaun Watson play on the road should lead to multiple turnovers in this game. |
LINEUPS
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 135.2)
- QB Kyler Murray- MIN $7,200
- RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, $9,100
- RB Ashton Jeanty, LV, $7,000
- WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN, $8,900
- WR Chris Olave, NO, $7,000
- WR Luther Burden III, CHI, $6,200
- TE Colston Loveland, CHI, $6,000
- Flex RB MarShawn Lloyd, GB, $4,900
- TD Tennessee Titans, $3,200
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 137.6)
A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100-player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often, these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup, which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Justin Herbert, LAC, $7,600
- RB Travis Etienne Jr., NO, $6,800
- RB Chase Brown, CIN, $7,500
- WR Carnell Tate, TEN, $5,600
- WR Ladd McConkey, LAC, $6,500
- WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN, $8,900
- TE Colston Loveland, CHI, $6,000
- Flex RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, $9,200
- TD Tennessee Titans, $3,200
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 135.6)
A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the more higher rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach, and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.
- QB Joe Burrow- CIN $8,200
- RB Travis Etienne Jr., NO, $6,800
- RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, $9,100
- WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN, $8,900
- WR Emeka Egbuka, TB, $6,400
- WR Carnell Tate, TEN, $5,600
- TE Michael Mayer, LV, $4,600
- Flex RB, Ashton Jeanty, LV, $7,000
- TD Tennessee Titans, $3,200
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