Top 10 FanDuel DFS Plays for NFL Week 1
Here are 10 of the most popular plays on this slate, with some rationale on why they could be great targets for you this week.
Quarterback
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions, $7,800 (vs. New Orleans)
Goff is coming off his third straight season with at least 4,500 passing yards and has thrown a touchdown pass in 23 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the league. According to Next Gen Stats, he led the NFL in touchdown passes against single high safety looks last season, and New Orleans ran that exact coverage at the second highest rate in football a year ago. With new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing calling plays and a Saints defense that's still figuring itself out, Goff is priced a notch below the top tier at quarterback even though this game projects as one of the highest scoring on the slate.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers, $7,600 (vs. Arizona)
The Chargers brought in Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator this offseason, and Herbert is the most talented quarterback McDaniel has had to work with in that role. In 2021, McDaniel made Jimmy Garoppolo relevant, so the theory here is imagine what he can do with Justin Herbert. Arizona's defense was one of the worst in the league last year, allowing nearly 29 points per game and ranking near the bottom against the pass, and the Cardinals surrendered the sixth most passing touchdowns in football. Los Angeles is favored by more than a touchdown at home, and even with some garbage time risk if the Chargers pull away, Herbert's rushing upside and the sheer size of this matchup edge make him one of the better values at the position.
Running Back
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions, $9,100 (vs. New Orleans)
Gibbs is the most expensive running back on the board, and he earns it. David Montgomery is gone to Houston, which means for the first time in his career Gibbs isn't sharing touches in a timeshare, and Detroit's backup behind him is currently on injured reserve. The Lions are solid home favorites in a game carrying one of the highest totals of the week, and New Orleans' run defense was one of the more exploitable units in the league last season. Gibbs already flashed a monster ceiling in a part time role. A near full workload in a plus matchup gives him a real shot at the top score on the entire slate.
Travis Etienne Jr., New Orleans Saints, $6,800 (at Detroit)
Etienne signed a four year, $52 million deal with New Orleans this offseason and spent all of training camp with the first team offense. Alvin Kamara is dealing with a sprained MCL and if he does play he will likely be less than 100%. This should clear the way for Etienne to handle the bulk of the workload in his first game as a Saint. He's coming off a 1,000 yard season in Jacksonville and gets a Detroit defense that gave up plenty of rushing production down the stretch last year. The price should reflect some uncertainty since he's new to this offense, but the workload profile here is about as clean as it gets for a Week 1 running back.
Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders, $7,000 (vs. Miami)
Jeanty is dealing with a low ankle sprain suffered in the preseason, and while there was some worry heading into this game, he's saying all the right things that he's 100% healthy and ready to go. Miami allowed the fourth worst rushing yards per carry mark in the league last season and gave up 18 rushing touchdowns to opposing backs. New head coach Klint Kubiak and a rebuilt offensive line, headlined by the Tyler Linderbaum signing, should also give the Raiders' ground game more room to work than Jeanty saw as a rookie. This is a boom or bust play given the injury, but the discounted price makes the risk worth taking in tournament lineups.
Wide Receiver
Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals, $8,900 (vs. Tampa Bay)
Chase is fully healthy after a scare in the preseason and led the NFL in targets for the second year running last season, finishing with well over 100 catches and 1,400 receiving yards. Tampa Bay was a plus matchup for opposing receivers for much of last year, and Chase's price, while the highest at the position, comes with a floor almost nobody else can match given his target volume alone. Pairing him with Burrow is one of the more obvious but justified stacks on the slate. Chase has led the league in targets in each of the last two seasons, and now gets a full year with Joe Burrow back at quarterback after Burrow was injured last season.
Luther Burden III, Chicago Bears, in the $6,200 (at Carolina)
Rome Odunze is questionable for Week 1 with a calf injury, which puts Burden in line to be Chicago's clear WR1 against a Panthers defense that struggled against the pass last season. Burden flashed real per route efficiency as a rookie even in a limited role, and Carolina cornerback Jaycee Horn is a legitimate challenge, but the volume path here is strong regardless of who's covering him. If Odunze ends up inactive, Burden's target share jumps even further, and he becomes one of the better cheap tournament plays on the entire board.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints, $7,400 (at Detroit)
Olave carries real momentum into the opener, catching 66 passes for 780 yards and six touchdowns over New Orleans' final stretch of games last season once Tyler Shough took over at quarterback. The Saints are sizable underdogs in Detroit, which sets up a game script where they may need to throw early and often just to keep pace. Detroit's secondary is also banged up, with both starting safeties dealing with injuries that could keep them out to start the year. At $7,400, Olave is priced well below the slate's true elite receivers while still offering a real shot at a double digit target afternoon.
Tight End
Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts, $5,600 (at Baltimore)
Warren offers rare salary relief at a position that's otherwise expensive this week. He grades out as one of the highest projected tight ends on the slate relative to price, which gives lineups a way to save money without fully punting the position. The Baltimore matchup isn't great on paper, but Warren's expected role in Indianapolis' passing game with Daniel Jones back under center is what makes him interesting regardless of opponent. Rostering Warren frees up salary that can go toward a receiver or running back with more upside.
Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears, in the $6,000 (at Carolina)
Loveland enters Week 1 as a bigger part of the Bears' passing game than he was as a rookie, and with Odunze questionable, he's positioned as one of Caleb Williams' top two options alongside Burden. Carolina ranked among the worse defenses against tight ends last season, and Loveland's route running and the way Chicago has used him in the middle of the field make him a strong bet to see a heavy target share even if Odunze plays. At a rookie level price, he's one of the cheaper paths to real upside at a thin position this week.
Putting It Together
A rough build around these plays might pair Goff or Herbert at quarterback with Gibbs at running back, Chase or Olave at receiver, Warren or Loveland at tight end, and Etienne or Jeanty rounding out the backfield depending on how much salary you have left over. Keep an eye on the Friday and Saturday injury reports before locking anything in, since Jeanty's ankle, Odunze's calf, and Kamara's knee all have a real chance to shift target shares and touch counts before kickoff. Good luck building your lineups this week.
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