DraftKings GPP Domination Week 8

Slate Overview

That's Why They Play The Game

The field sometimes treats “great matchup” and “certain fantasy outcome” as the same thing.

Dallas, Cincinnati, and Jacksonville all have implied totals around 27-30 points and are favored by roughly a touchdown or more this week, which all but guarantees the field will gravitate toward their quarterbacks, primary receivers, and running backs. 

With tournament ownership so heavily concentrated on three offenses, we can get paid by attacking the field's assumptions about how their points will be scored. Some evergreen tournament strategies fit especially well in Week 8:

• Bet on a different scoring distribution within the same offense. You can still get access to Dallas' 30-point team total without stacking Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, for example.
• Use the underdog as part of the stack. Blowout expectations often suppress ownership on bring-backs. The crowd will mostly fade Tony Pollard because everyone expects Tennessee to get steamrolled, but a big game from Pollard could be what keeps Burrow throwing into the fourth quarter.
• Fade the entire offense when ownership gets out of control. A 28-point implied total is excellent, but it still leaves plenty of outcomes where the offense scores 20-24 points without producing a must-have individual score. With eight other offenses carrying implied totals of 23 or more, you have legitimate alternatives this week.
• Look for competitive games the field is ignoring. One-sided games feel easier to project, which makes them comfortable for the field. Lower-owned games between competent offenses can produce more sustained play volume, more fourth-quarter passing, and multiple players reaching their ceilings together. Ravens at Bills is a great example this week. Despite a 54-point total, the game carries relatively little ownership outside of Zay Flowers.

Top Game Environments

Targeting games where multiple players can hit their ceilings together reduces the number of things you need to get right to build a winning GPP lineup.

Games in bold indicate low projected ownership relative to favorable scoring conditions.

The Chalk: Identifying Common Roster Construction

Understanding how the field is most likely to construct lineups helps us build differently without fading top plays entirely and sacrificing too much projection.

QB: Dak Prescott ($6,300) may end up doubling the next closest quarterback's roster percentage. With Dallas at home, favored by a touchdown and implied to score over 30 points, the crowd has no reason to spend past Prescott's salary. 

RB: What the field will do at running back is harder to parse. Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,500) is usually the crowd's top target, but his salary remains close to five figures, and Detroit faces Minnesota's stifling run defense. If our opponents aren't playing Gibbs, they might look to Bijan Robinson ($8,500), but Robinson hasn't topped 17 DraftKings points since Week 4. The uncertainty around the consensus top running backs, combined with favorable spots for several high-end wide receivers, should push ownership toward the $6K range. Bhayshul Tuten ($5,900) and Chase Brown ($6,300) look like solid matchup plays, while Bucky Irving ($6,400) enters Week 8 hot. Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,600) will join them if TreVeyon Henderson (illness) can't suit up. RJ Harvey's surprise scratch has gifted entrants a rare running back punt option. Jonah Coleman ($4,300) will be a fashionable flex play, or even an RB2 for lineups prioritizing wide receiver.

WR: CeeDee Lamb ($8,100) has 60 targets over his last four games and is the obvious stacking partner for Prescott, making him the first click at wide receiver for most entrants. Ja'Marr Chase ($7,700) is enticing any time he's below $8K and draws arguably the best wide receiver matchup on the slate against Tennessee. If the Titans aren't the best matchup, Buffalo is. Zay Flowers ($7,200) gets the Bills with Lamar Jackson finally back in the lineup to boost his efficiency, if that's even possible. Fitting all three becomes possible with Coleman and Wan'Dale Robinson ($4,200) freeing up salary. Robinson takes over for Carnell Tate (shoulder) as Tennessee's top option in the passing game.

TE: A.J. Brown's latest injury should push Hunter Henry ($4,300) to the top of the board at tight end, especially with Miami giving up 6.8 fantasy points over expected to opposing tight ends this season. Henry may split some ownership with Brenton Strange ($4,000), who enters a prime matchup against the Colts with at least 7 targets in each of his last three games.

Flip the Common Build: The quarterbacks who can match or exceed Prescott's ceiling are Josh Allen ($7,700), Joe Burrow ($7,000), and Jackson ($6,800), though the latter is not for the faint of heart coming off a major ankle injury. Pairing an expensive quarterback with Trey McBride ($7,400) gives you a piece of the highest-total game on the slate without adding much ownership to the lineup, and forces more creative spending throughout the rest of the roster.

Leverage Plays