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In Week 8, we liked Arizona at Dallas (63 points), Baltimore at Buffalo (46), Minnesota at Detroit (34), Carolina at Green Bay (46), and Indianapolis at Jacksonville (49). Arizona-Dallas delivered as expected, but Minnesota-Detroit fell well short, and the lopsided outcomes in Buffalo and Jacksonville limited the potential for even bigger totals. Still, our five selections combined for 238 points, averaging 47.6 per game. That brings our season total to 1,800 points across 35 selections, or 51.4 points per game.
It also brings us to Week 9. We've once again assembled five matchups that give us both automatic starts capable of hitting their ceilings and players whose lineup value gets pushed upward based on the opponent. Here are the games that stand out this week.
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons
A 52.5-point total and a three-point spread give us the combination we like: scoring potential without an obvious blowout. This contest offers plenty of two-sided passing-game potential, with additional backfield upside.
The initial Footballguys projections have six players projected as starters, including four inside the top 10 at their positions. Joe Burrow (QB2), Ja'Marr Chase (WR3), Bijan Robinson (RB5), Chase Brown (RB10), Drake London (WR13), and Tee Higgins (WR15) are all lineup locks.
Burrow has been on a tear, leading the Bengals to three straight victories with 14 total touchdowns, making Cincinnati's passing attack impossible to ignore.
Atlanta allows 28.1 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, third-most in the league, enough to merit the optimistic projection for Brown.
Kyle Pitts Sr. (TE21) isn't projected as a starter, but he's a viable streamer against a Cincinnati defense that allows 15.9 points per game to tight ends, ninth-most in the league. Opposing tight ends average seven catches and 89 receiving yards against the Bengals. Mike Gesicki, TE12 overall, is a slightly stronger streamer.
The game is in Madrid with a 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff, so set lineups early.
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts
Once again, the Cowboys, coming off a 63-point combined game against Arizona, are in a game with one of the week's highest totals at 51.5. Can the Colts keep pace, particularly after trading star lineman Quenton Nelson and coming of a 42-7 loss to Jacksonville?
There's a reason the Cowboys appear in this article often: they don't play much defense.
The strongest matchup advantage belongs to Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis running game. Assuming he isn't traded this week, Taylor's RB6 projection is solid.
Javonte Williams, our RB8, has the clearest positional advantage among Dallas' skill players. Running backs average 103 rushing and 43 receiving yards per game against the Colts.
Dak Prescott has a favorable enough matchup. Opposing quarterbacks average 226 passing yards and 1.8 touchdowns against Indianapolis, supporting his QB6 projection. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are lineup locks regardless.
With Jake Ferguson likely sidelined by an ankle injury, Ryan Flournoy, WR14 over the last three games, could see additional opportunities and remains a viable starting option.
Daniel Jones continues for the Colts against a Dallas defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks (20.2 per game). Still, the smarter plays are Tyler Warren, our TE7, and Keenan Allen, projected WR25. Josh Downs remains in what-the-heck flex territory.
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins
Even if this one seems a little lopsided, Detroit is favored by seven points with a total of 50.5; this game arguably offers the strongest collection of favorable positional matchups on our list.
Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta benefit from unusually favorable defensive numbers. Gibbs is RB1 in our initial projections, and the matchup reinforces that lofty ranking.
Miami has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, but Amon-Ra St. Brown is a lineup lock regardless. Jameson Williams, WR13 over the last three games, should be in lineups as well.
The biggest question is whether Miami can contribute enough offense to keep this game competitive rather than simply surrendering fantasy points.
Ollie Gordon II's RB9 projection is strong despite a difficult matchup, thanks to his workload.
Malik Willis has the best positional matchup of Miami's offensive players. Detroit allows a league-high 24.7 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but Willis' QB19 projection reflects his year-to-date output. Detroit also allows the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, making Malik Washington, projected WR31, an interesting WR3/flex candidate.
Greg Dulcich has an outstanding tight-end matchup. Detroit has allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends by a substantial margin, but Dulcich's season-long production relegates him to TE24 in the initial projection.
Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers
This game has a 51.5-point total, but San Francisco is favored by 10 points. There's obvious potential for the 49ers' playmakers, especially Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy, Mike Evans, and George Kittle.
Las Vegas ranks among the 11 most generous defenses against quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. Our projections reflect that: McCaffrey is our RB2, Purdy is QB3, Evans is WR12, and Kittle is TE2.
The challenge is identifying which Raiders can stay productive if Las Vegas falls behind.
Brock Bowers is our TE1, although San Francisco has allowed only the 22nd-most points to tight ends. His production and established target volume make him an obvious lineup lock. Kirk Cousins is our QB12 in an essentially neutral matchup.
Ashton Jeanty has a reasonable positional matchup, with opposing backfields averaging 79 rushing yards and 51 receiving yards per game. That receiving production is especially interesting for Jeanty, projected as our RB17. After Mike Washington Jr. handled 25 carries against the Jets in Week 8, Jeanty's workload is worth watching, but the projection reflects it.
The Raiders' receivers have a tougher assignment. San Francisco allows 29.2 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, the 11th-fewest. Tre Tucker, our WR36, is the only playable asset at the position for Vegas.
Green Bay at New England
The 46.5-point total isn't super-high, but there's plenty of fantasy appeal: two quarterbacks with top-eight projections, multiple highly ranked receivers, and a competitive spread that should keep both offenses aggressive.
Drake Maye, our QB4 to open the week, has 1,983 passing yards and 15 touchdowns this season.
New England's receivers have a favorable matchup. Green Bay allows 34.8 PPR points per game to receivers, the ninth-most, creating chances for DeMario Douglas, initially projected WR27, and A.J. Brown if healthy. Rhamondre Stevenson, our RB20, has the strongest positional advantage: Green Bay allows 25.7 fantasy points per game to running backs, the eighth-most.
Jordan Love has 16 touchdown passes against six interceptions, a legitimate basis for his QB8 projection. Matthew Golden (WR5) is a lineup lock, while Christian Watson (WR8) offers considerable upside if his broken rib doesn't limit his workload. A TE12 projection makes Tucker Kraft a viable starter.
Josh Jacobs faces a difficult assignment: New England allows just 19.0 points per game to running backs, the sixth-fewest. His RB12 projection keeps him in lineups, but don't boost him.
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