In Week 3, we liked the Baltimore-Dallas, San Francisco-Arizona, Chargers-Buffalo, Detroit-Jets, and Kansas City-Miami games. With three games delivering 55 or more points (including two with more than 60), the five games averaged 52 total points (no thanks to the Chargers and Dolphins, who combined for a meager 26).
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Now, Week 4 is here, and we continue to get more data to work with. As always, the goal here is to highlight matchups that give us both automatic starts capable of hitting their ceilings and players whose lineup value gets pushed upward based on the opponent. Here are the games that stand out to me this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
This is our starting point. The early total has climbed to 51.5 points, the highest on the Week 4 board, with Cincinnati carrying a 27-point implied total and Jacksonville at 24.5. Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown are all attractive, but Jacksonville offers interesting leverage beyond the front-line plays. Trevor Lawrence is coming off three touchdown passes against New England, and the matchup raises his appeal along with Jacksonville's pass-catchers. Parker Washington has become a weekly fantasy WR1 candidate, but those holding out hope for a Brian Thomas Jr. rebound could be rewarded against the Bengals' 28th-ranked pass defense. The matchup also opens the door for Jakobi Meyers and Brenton Strange in deeper leagues. Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez Jr. will have their work cut out for them against an improved Cincy run defense, but Tuten has locked himself into RB2 territory.
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
Detroit has become exactly what fantasy managers hoped for when drafting this team's skill players. The Lions have a 27-point implied total in a game with a 50.5-point over/under. Detroit is favored by roughly a field goal. Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jared Goff are straightforward plays, while the environment -- with Detroit averaging 31 points per game and Carolina's secondary ravaged by injuries -- keeps Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta firmly in consideration. Carolina interests me, too. Bryce Young threw for 291 yards despite being pressured heavily by Cleveland, so a trailing game script could create volume for Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker, and Darren Waller against Detroit's 32nd-ranked pass defense. Chuba Hubbard also remains firmly in play.
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders
This one might not have the shootout potential of the other games here, but it may offer some of the best positional matchups. The total is 46.5, with Indianapolis favored by roughly four points in London. Jonathan Taylor is the Colts' centerpiece, while Tyler Warren gets an especially interesting matchup against a Washington defense that gives up the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. The Colts' passing-game hierarchy also deserves attention: Keenan Allen just led Indianapolis' receivers with nine targets, six catches, 63 yards, and a touchdown. That puts Allen and Josh Downs into the flex conversation, as the Commanders have yielded the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. Whether Jayden Daniels (unlikely) or Marcus Mariota (likely) is under center, a game script that forces Washington to stay aggressive could help Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs outperform expectations.
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
This one offers something slightly different. The total is 47.5, and Houston is a modest favorite. The Texans are the side I'd particularly like to exploit: C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins face a Dallas defense that has already been attacked successfully through the air. The Cowboys have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Collins is expected to return from the hamstring injury that sidelined him for the last two games, so his status bears watching. David Montgomery and Woody Marks also have some appeal against a Dallas defense that's given up the eighth-most points to opposing running backs. I'm less enthusiastic about the Dallas side of this matchup, but nobody should be benching Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, or Javonte Williams. Jake Ferguson, on the other hand, is a more matchup-sensitive decision.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Kansas City heads to Las Vegas with a 26-point implied total in a game carrying a healthy 47.5-point over/under. The Chiefs are favored by 4.5 points, which is more appealing than the double-digit spreads attached to Baltimore and some of the other high-powered offenses this week. Patrick Mahomes II, Ken Walker III, Travis Kelce, and Rashee Rice are obvious plays. This matchup also makes Kansas City's complementary receivers, including Xavier Worthy and Tyquan Thornton, viable options in deeper leagues. On the other side, Las Vegas scored 35 points last week, so there's enough offensive potential to keep Kansas City aggressive. Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers remain the primary Raiders plays, with Tre Tucker offering deeper-league possibilities.
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