Johnnie Walker Blue Label (Top Shelf Plays)
Nick Foles ($8,500) - While it’s a good idea to spend on Peyton Manning and Drew Brees in your cash game lineups this week, Foles should be able to approximate their production at a relative bargain. Vegas has pegged the Eagles-Jaguars game as the second highest scoring game on the slate this week (o/u 53), with the Eagles projected to score 31.5 points. There’s easily room for three TDs in this game from Foles, who averaged 2.7 TDs per start last season. Jacksonville is being mentioned as an up and coming defense, and while that may be true of their defensive line, the secondary can still be exploited.
Montee Ball ($7,000) - Jamaal Charles and Matt Forte look like the safest top dollar plays on the RB board this week, but based on my projections, it’s Ball who offers the better $/point value. Vegas is calling for fireworks in the Broncos-Colts game, with the over/under set at 55. The Colts’ secondary is atrocious outside of Vontae Davis, and Peyton Manning is playing at home, in prime time. I expect the Broncos to be salting away the win in the second half (they’re favored by more than a TD), which should lead to a heavy workload for Ball. I also prefer my expensive RBs to have a high probability of scoring TDs. Last year, Denver starter Knowshon Moreno finished behind only Charles and Marshawn Lynch with 0.81 total TDs per game.
Julio Jones ($7,700) - Besides playing in a game with an over/under north of 50 points, Julio also meets the rest of the criteria I look for in a high priced receiver. He’s a target hog (11.8 per game last season, second in the NFL behind only Justin Blackmon), he racks up huge yardage numbers (116 YPG last year), and he’s the team’s best option in the red zone (Jones has bested Roddy White in red zone TD conversion rate by over 10% since 2011). Demaryius Thomas and the Bears’ receivers are also tempting this week, but I’m chomping at the bit to get Julio back in my lineups.
Jimmy Graham ($7,200) - If you’re going to pay up for a tight end this week (which I would rarely suggest doing in cash games), make it Graham. I’m having fun rolling out Gronk in my seasonal leagues, but at $6,700 his limited snap count is too risky for me in the daily format. Graham produced in both meetings with the Falcons last season, highlighted by a five catch, 100 yard, one TD performance in week 12. Atlanta’s defense should be improved this year (if only because they’ll start the season healthy), but Graham still presents a matchup nightmare for the Falcons.
New York Jets Defense ($3,900) - Rex Ryan and the Jets defensive front, at home against a rookie QB making his first start, in a game in which they’re favored by 6 points? Sacks and turnovers are essentially guaranteed, but be prepared for the Jets to have a high ownership percentage.
Jack Daniels (Moderately Priced Plays)
Matt Ryan ($7,900) - I’ll be constructing at least one tournament roster featuring a Matty Ice/Julio stack, in hopes the two enjoy a blissful week one reunion. History tells us Ryan will welcome Jones back with open arms. Since 2012, Ryan has averaged over 60 additional passing yards and more than an extra half a touchdown per game with Julio in the lineup. This game is being played in Atlanta, and Ryan fared much better at home last season, posting a 102.6 QBR in the Georgia Dome compared to just a 77 rating on the road. I would put Ryan’s floor around 275 yards and 2 TDs in this game.
CJ Spiller ($6,200) - You won’t catch me starting Spiller, whose production relies almost entirely on big plays, in a cash game. However, he does make an ideal mid-priced play against the Bears in tournaments this week. If you played DFS last year, you’ll recall starting RBs against Chicago was practically a rule. Outside of the Cowboys, no team gave up more fantasy points per game to RBs, and the Bears somehow did nothing this offseason to improve the interior of their defensive line, or their miserable linebacking corps. Spiller starts the season 100% healthy, and in line for 20 total touches per game. I like his chances of breaking a long TD run this week.
Frank Gore ($5,200) - Gore has the best matchup of any starting running back this week against the Cowboys. Last season, Gore handled 39% of San Francisco’s total touches, the seventh heaviest share of any RB in the league. Hotshot rookie Carlos Hyde is lurking as a threat to Gore’s workload, but at this point, I’ll believe in the demise of Frank Gore only when I see his chalk outline on the field. In a game where the over/under is set at 51, he’s a screaming value priced in the low-end RB2 tier.
Emmanuel Sanders ($4,800) - I had Sanders pegged as a great value this week, even before we learned Wes Welker is about that rave life. With Welker suspended, Sanders will likely shift to the slot, where receivers tend to have a higher catch rate, and offer more consistent fantasy production. On sites like Draftkings that feature full PPR scoring, I’m putting Sanders in all my lineups - GPP and head to head - regardless of what’s sure to be a high ownership percentage.
Dennis Pitta ($4,400) - One of the best ways to guard against the volatility of the tight end position in cash games is to chase targets. Pitta’s 8.25 targets per game last season placed him behind only Gronk and Jimmy Graham. Everything in new Ravens’ offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak’s history suggests Pitta will remain heavily targeted, especially in the redzone. Pitta is another player that gets a bump thanks to DraftKings’ PPR scoring format.
Detroit Lions Defense ($3,300) - I’m not too scared off by the 47 point over/under in the Lions-Giants game. Eli Manning and his offensive line are awful until proven otherwise, and I don’t see the Giants getting much going on the ground either (Detroit allowed the 6th fewest fantasy points to RBs last season). There’s major sack and turnover potential in this one for Detroit at home.
Limousine Liquor (Dirt Cheap Plays)
Jake Locker ($6,100) - I have a sneaking suspicion the Titans are going to light up the Chiefs at Arrowhead - and even if they don’t, Locker should still return value at his salary. When we last saw the Kansas City secondary, it was being eviscerated by Andrew Luck on Wildcard Weekend. The only “improvement” the Chiefs made to last year’s inept group was adding a third round rookie who has struggled this preseason. I don’t want to place too much stock in meaningless games, but Locker has looked sharp so far under new head coach Ken Whisenhunt, completing 70% of his passes in the exhibition slate. Stacking Locker with the next guy on this list could be the combination that propels you to GPP glory this week.
Justin Hunter ($3,800) - Hunter has the physical tools to blow the top off KC’s inexperienced coverage unit. The only question is opportunity, as he played behind Nate Washington this preseason in two receiver sets. In tournament play, it’s worth betting on the chance Tennessee uses Hunter as a primary weapon in Ken Whisenhunt’s vertical passing scheme. The strength of the Chiefs defense is their pass rush, but the Titans have a sturdy o-line that should give Hunter’s downfield routes time to develop. This is a boom or bust play to be certain, but Hunter’s ceiling is as high as any receiver not priced in the top tier.
Fred Jackson ($4,400) - I’m plenty comfortable trusting Fred Jackson in cash games this week. While the aforementioned Spiller is the upside play, Jackson enjoys the same choice match-up against Chicago and has a more clearly defined role as the Bills goal line and third down back. Since Spiller entered the league in 2010, Jackson has seen 73% of the carries from inside the five yard line for Buffalo. Jackson also had 11 more pass targets than Spiller this preseason, so he should have ample opportunity to justify his price tag in Draftkings PPR scoring - especially since he would see the field more if Buffalo is forced to abandon the run (EJ Manuel is a turnover machine and Chicago is a seven point favorite).
Antonio Gates ($3,400) - If Kyle Rudolph’s long preseason TD catch against Arizona’s first string is any indication, the Cardinals still can’t cover opposing tight ends (they let up the most receptions, yards, and TDs to the position last season). Arizona has lost a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball to free agency (Karlos Dansby), suspension (Daryl Washington), and injury (Darnell Dockett), but their biggest problem against tight ends last year was often their last line of defense - safety Yeremiah Bell. Bell has since retired, but his replacement, first round pick Deone Bucannon, will be learning on the job. In cash games, I’ll take Gates for the guaranteed targets (over seven per game last season) and prominent red zone role, but I’ll endorse Ladarius Green’s ($3,200) big play potential in GPPs as well.
Philadelphia Eagles Defense ($3,200) - Chad Henne has never thrown more touchdowns than interceptions in a season during his six year NFL career. The Eagles are at home and favored by double digits. They’re locked in as my best value play at the position this week.
Rubbing Alcohol (Minimum Plays)
Donnie Avery ($3,000) - I’m not counting on Avery as anything special this week, but I can’t argue with taking a tournament flier on a minimum priced player with big play potential who projects as his team’s only viable receiving option. The matchup against the Titans is awful for Avery, but with Dwayne Bowe suspended, and Travis Kelce’s role in question, he’ll at least be playing a ton of snaps and running a lot of routes, both of which have some positive correlation to fantasy production. Cody Latimer is another minimum priced receiver I would green light in GPPs.