Slate Overview
Leftovers
Thanksgiving Day featured three games that were expected to be high-scoring and competitive. Sunday's main slate...doesn't.
Only two games barely have an implied total over 45 points. Six games check in at 42.5 or lower, and three games are projected blowouts with double-digit point spreads. In short, this slate is gross. But gross shouldn't be confused with unprofitable. You can still be successful this week, but you'll want to prioritize players who can win despite their surroundings rather than those dependent on them. Before building your lineups, ask yourself the following questions, carefully consider your answers, and build your lineups around the stories they tell:
- Which offenses do you think can outperform low expectations?
- Which players can post a slate-breaking score independent of their game environment?
- How can I use projected ownership to leverage what is sure to be fragile chalk?
Volume and isolated upside are more valuable this week than trying to force correlation. Instead of planning for multiple players from the same game to go off together, look for the individual players most capable of generating 25 to 30 points on their own. On a slate this ugly, even one correctly placed spike performance can separate you from thousands of lineups built around game environments that will fail to materialize.
Top Game Environments
There are fewer games than usual this week where fantasy scoring is likely to snowball. Below are the best bets of a bad bunch.
Games in bold are lower-total games with the potential for higher-than-expected scoring. Stacking these games at a higher ownership level than the field will add leverage to your lineups if they exceed their implied totals.
- Bills (-3.5) @ Steelers - O/U 45.5
- Cardinals @ Buccaneers (-4.5) - O/U 45.5
- Texans @ Colts (-3.5) - O/U 44.5
- Jaguars (-6) @ Titans - O/U 41.5
Identifying Common Roster Construction
Understanding what your opponents are most likely to do is just as important as spotting the best plays. Common roster builds form naturally when popular players are combined into a lineup. Recognizing the "chalky" construction helps us anticipate what the majority of rosters we're up against will look like, and allows us to decide the best ways to build differently for leverage without sacrificing ceiling.
QB: Jacoby Brissett ($5,800) exceeded ownership expectations in most tournaments last week. He's harder to stack now that Trey McBride ($7,800) is finally priced where he belongs, and the return of Marvin Harrison Jr. crashes the party for Michael Wilson ($5,900). Still, Brissett hasn't finished with fewer than 21 DraftKings points in any of his six starts this season, which should endear him to the crowd for one more week. C.J. Stroud ($5,000), Sam Darnold ($5,600), and maybe even Trevor Lawrence ($5,400) are also priced to fit common builds, which should lead to flat ownership at the position. There isn't much leverage to be gained here.
RB: Jonathan Taylor's $9,800 salary remains prohibitive, and Christian McCaffrey is in a bad-weather game against a tough Cleveland defense. It leaves De'Von Achane ($8,300) as the slate's mega-chalk as he heads into a neutral matchup against New Orleans. Breece Hall ($6,000) is the most likely RB2 in chalky lineups. He showed signs of life with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, and draws the Falcons, who have struggled to contain opposing running backs. Ken Walker III ($5,300) is priced well relative to last week's increased usage and a projected blowout game script against the Vikings. He'll either take Hall's place in common builds or appear often in the Flex spot.
WR: Optimizers favor a more balanced approach at wide receiver, but it's a safe bet the crowd will do their best to squeeze in Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($9,500), who is coming off a season-high 40.1 DraftKings points. Jaylen Waddle ($6,800) and Chris Olave ($6,400) face off in Miami, priced similarly. Either of them could appear as the WR2 on common rosters. Combining Achane with Smith-Njigba necessitates low spending at WR3. John Metchie III ($3,800) and Jayden Higgins ($3,900) have been seeing enough volume lately to rope in the crowd.
TE: Now that McBride is priced equally to the overall WR3, the field can return to punting the position. Gunnar Helm ($2,600) and Colby Parkinson ($2,800) have seen increased playing time and target volume recently, and both have favorable matchups for tight end scoring. Those who don't play Smith-Njigba in favor of a more balanced wide receiver build will look to get up to the mid-range for Tyler Warren ($5,200) or Oronde Gadsden ($4,300).
Flipping the Common Build: If Smith-Njigba is the field's preferred top-shelf option, and 45 percent of lineups will include De'Von Achane, then Christian McCaffrey is a good way to start building differently from the crowd. McCaffrey leads all players in total DraftKings points this season, and while the matchup and potential for bad weather are less than ideal, they're hardly a deal-breaker. Considering how thin the wide receivers are behind Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua on this slate, you can pair McCaffrey with Achane, spend up to McBride at tight end, and punt on all three receiver slots without giving up too many projected points.
