Slate Overview
Chaos
Week 17 slates have a reputation for being wacky, and this one is trending towards especially chaotic. We’re dealing with a condensed nine-game slate, thanks to the Christmas Day tripleheader and a pair of Saturday games, as well as questionable team motivations, surprise inactives, backups being thrust into prominent roles, and only one game with a total exceeding 50 points.
"Playing the best plays," if there is such a thing, is no match for the uncertainty this slate presents. When teams have less incentive to push starters, median projections lose reliability, shifting the edge towards understanding how some games might go sideways, and positioning yourself to capitalize when they do.
Unmotivated offenses and low implied point totals scare people away, but these same factors also suppress ownership and create asymmetric upside when a game refuses to cooperate with expectations. Embrace volatility selectively, prioritize roles that won’t disappear if a game turns ugly, and be willing to bet against motivation narratives that your opponents are overconfident in.
The number one goal is to be exposed to the outcomes the field is least prepared for when this slate inevitably veers off script.
Top Game Environments
DFS is less about picking players in isolation and more about targeting the games where fantasy scoring can snowball. High totals, fast pace, and exploitable defenses all create environments where multiple players can go off together. Identifying these spots is the foundation for building winning GPP lineups.
Games in bold are lower-total games with the potential for higher-than-expected scoring. Stacking these games at a higher ownership level than the field will add leverage to your lineups if they exceed their implied totals.
- Cardinals @ Bengals (-7) - O/U 53.5
- Jaguars (-5.5) @ Colts - O/U 48.5
- Buccaneers (-6) @ Dolphins - O/U 44.5
- Giants (-1.5) @ Raiders - O/U 41.5
Identifying Common Roster Construction
Understanding what your opponents are most likely to do is just as important as spotting the best plays. Common roster builds form naturally when popular players are combined into a lineup. Recognizing the "chalky" construction helps us anticipate what the majority of rosters we're up against will look like, and allows us to decide the best ways to build differently for leverage without sacrificing ceiling.
QB: Quarterback spending will concentrate toward the top salary tier, starting with Joe Burrow ($6,500) after his 32 DraftKings point eruption against Miami in Week 16. Those who can't fit Burrow will "settle" on Trevor Lawrence ($6,100), the league’s hottest quarterback, in a soft matchup with a Colts defense that was just dismantled in prime time by Brock Purdy. Drake Maye ($6,800) initially projected for modest ownership in what looks like a blowout win over the Jets. But injuries across New England’s receiving corps have turned the team's remaining pass-catchers into the best values on the slate. As those receivers gain steam, Maye stacks will follow.
RB: Ashton Jeanty ($6,100) hung 34.8 DraftKings points on a tough Texans defense in Week 16. He's the slate's mega-chalk in a home matchup against the Giants, who are neck-and-neck with Arizona as the league's worst rush defense over the last five weeks. Travis Etienne Jr. ($7,100) has dipped below 15.7 DraftKings points just once since Jacksonville's Week 8 bye, which is the type of safety the field craves. As more value opens up, Saquon Barkley ($7,600) may push Etienne for the RB2 slot in common builds, but it won't change salary allocation significantly.
WR: Ja'Marr Chase ($8,300) will follow Burrow into chalky lineups, and Stefon Diggs ($5,800) is an auto-click, given the injuries to Mack Hollins and Kayshon Boutte. The WR3 slot is where common spending will diverge. Punting the position with the other beneficiary of New England's receiver injuries, Kyle Williams ($3,300), allows entrants to get up to Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($8,600) at Flex, assuming they also punt at tight end. Those who go for a more balanced build are likely to land on Jakobi Meyers ($5,300) at WR3, who checks in at his lowest price since Week 13.
TE: Rather than trying to pair two elite wide receivers, those brave enough to play Williams could use the savings on Trey McBride ($7,500) instead of Smith-Njigba. McBride is coming off an uncharacteristic single-digit scoring performance, but draws the mother of all defense vs. position matchups against the Bengals. Balanced builds can fit Hunter Henry, who should be in line for additional targets due to the state of New England's wide receiver corps. Michael Mayer ($2,500) is a viable min-priced option for Chase/Smith-Njigba builds due to the absence of Brock Bowers.
Flipping the Common Build: Typically, the field looks to the quarterback position for value, but that won't be the case this week. Not only will spending down at quarterback get you building in a different direction than most of your opponents, but it will also force you to focus on at least one game environment that no one wants a part of. If your cheap QB is in a game that shoots out, and you're one of the few who had it stacked, there is a lot less you have to get right to catapult your lineup up the standings.
