Slate Overview
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If you're searching for a reason to embrace the holiday spirit, take a look at the Week 14 main slate. This week's mid-priced chalk is made up of last week's top scorers, many of whom have ultra-thin résumés. Especially at this time of year, it brings to mind a scene from (what should be) your favorite Christmas movie.
Tyrod Taylor, Christian Watson, Terry McLaurin, Brenton Strange, and Adonai Mitchell will attract the crowd after helping some entrants amass small fortunes in Week 13. McLaurin has earned our trust, though he's rarely been healthy this year, and it remains to be seen if Jayden Daniels needs to shake off rust in his first game back from an ugly elbow injury. But re-read the rest of those names.
Is Taylor capable of throwing back the clock for a second straight week? Has Watson really separated himself as the WR1 in Green Bay's crowded wide receiver room? Could Strange keep getting by on four or five targets? And let's not start on Mitchell, who can be counted on to burn his defenders every week, but rarely to catch the ball once he does.
In short, a healthy portion of this week's most popular plays have fragile profiles. Sorting out which of these volatile values can sustain their Week 13 production and which are traps won’t be easy, but it’s likely what separates winning lineups this week.
Top Game Environments
DFS is less about picking players in isolation and more about targeting the games where fantasy scoring can snowball. High totals, fast pace, and exploitable defenses all create environments where multiple players can go off together. Identifying these spots is the foundation for building winning GPP lineups.
Games in bold are lower-total games with the potential for higher-than-expected scoring. Stacking these games at a higher ownership level than the field will add leverage to your lineups if they exceed their implied totals.
- Bengals @ Bills (-6) - O/U 53.5
- Colts (-1.5) @ Jaguars - O/U 46.5
- Rams (-7.5) @ Cardinals - O/U 47.5
- Saints @ Buccaneers (-8.5) - O/U 41.5
Identifying Common Roster Construction
Understanding what your opponents are most likely to do is just as important as spotting the best plays. Common roster builds form naturally when popular players are combined into a lineup. Recognizing the "chalky" construction helps us anticipate what the majority of rosters we're up against will look like, and allows us to decide the best ways to build differently for leverage without sacrificing ceiling.
QB: Josh Allen ($7,700) will be the highest-owned quarterback on the slate in a dream matchup against Cincinnati, but Jayden Daniels' ($6,000) surprise activation could knock Allen out of chalky builds. And if entrants want to fit high-priced chalk at both running back slots and WR1, Tyrod Taylor ($4,900) is probably their guy. Taylor looked serviceable in last week's win against the Falcons, and faces a suspect Miami defense. Despite the drastic price difference between Allen and the other popular options, the choice of quarterback won't change common construction too much due to the overload of wide receiver value on the slate.
RB: De'Von Achane ($8,800) appeared on about 40 percent of lineups in most tournaments last week and delivered a solid 22.4 DraftKings points. He'll remain in the crowd's good graces despite a $500 salary increase thanks to his matchup against a Jets defense that has allowed two touchdowns to running backs in each of their last three games. The abundance of wide receiver value should result in heavy spending at both running back positions, with James Cook ($7,800) and Josh Jacobs ($6,800) the most likely candidates to appear alongside Achane, who is easiest to squeeze into lineups that include Taylor at quarterback.
WR: As previously mentioned, the middle salary range is packed with value plays, including Michael Wilson ($5,600), McLaurin ($5,200), Watson ($5,200), Mitchell ($4,600), Alec Pierce ($5,100), DJ Moore ($4,800), and Jakobi Meyers ($5,700). Common builds may feature any combination of these guys at the three wide receiver spots, with heavier spending at running back and tight end. But chalky builds will diverge at Ja'Marr Chase. Spending up to Chase at WR1 will typically require punting tight end at the expense of popular mid-range value plays.
TE: On the topic of mid-range tight end value plays, Brenton Strange ($3,900), Harold Fannin Jr. ($3,700), and Kyle Pitts Sr. ($4,200) are the usual suspects. Expect to see one of them in lineups that include Daniels or Taylor, or in Allen lineups that skip Chase or Achane. Those who roster Allen will look to capitalize on the Bengals' historic inability to defend tight ends by playing Dawson Knox ($2,800), assuming Dalton Kincaid still isn't ready to return.
Flipping the Common Build: It seems like an ideal week for the barbell approach to roster construction. In DFS, a barbell build is when you load up on players at the extremes of the salary spectrum and minimize exposure to the mid-range. Since our opponents are attacking players coming off spike weeks in the $5-$6K salary tier, seeking viable punt plays, while loading up on under-owned studs (particularly at wide receiver), will be the path less taken.