Slate Overview
Attack of the Scrub Quarterbacks
A surplus of surprise value plays at quarterback makes this week's slate unique. Jacoby Brissett, Tyler Shough, J.J. McCarthy, Kirk Cousins, Gardner Minshew, and Quinn Ewers(?!) all have fantastic matchups and cost less than $5,500, enabling the field to save salary on a signal-caller and spend aggressively elsewhere. With cheap quarterbacks so plentiful, many rosters will be built the same way, featuring identical high-priced skill players.
On slates like this one, your goal is not to settle on which cheap quarterback can get you a 3x (or even 4x) salary multiple. It’s understanding what the widespread salary relief does to the rest of the roster construction landscape. Half the field can comfortably fit two elite running backs and a premium receiver, which means raw points at quarterback matter less than how your quarterback choice shapes the rest of your build.
There are three ways to attack this setup:
- Lean into the value but differentiate how you spend the savings, paying up at positions or in game environments the field overlooks (see Identifying Common Roster Construction below).
- Pivot to more expensive quarterbacks with higher ceilings, accepting less flexibility in exchange for uniqueness, without sacrificing upside.
- Use cheap quarterbacks selectively, pairing them with aggressive stacks or correlations that allow access to ceiling outcomes most value-based builds cannot reach.
GPPs will be won on this slate by the lineups that best leverage the extra salary. Treat what you do at quarterback as a structural decision, not a standalone play, and build with a clear understanding of how your choice changes your path to first place.
Top Game Environments
DFS is less about picking players in isolation and more about targeting the games where fantasy scoring can snowball. High totals, fast pace, and exploitable defenses all create environments where multiple players can go off together. Identifying these spots is the foundation for building winning GPP lineups.
Games in bold are lower-total games with the potential for higher-than-expected scoring. Stacking these games at a higher ownership level than the field will add leverage to your lineups if they exceed their implied totals.
- Steelers @ Lions (-7) - O/U 52.5
- Bengals (-4.5) @ Dolphins - O/U 47.5
- Chargers @ Cowboys (-1.5) - O/U 50.5
- Falcons (-3) @ Cardinals - O/U 48.5
- Jaguars @ Broncos (-3.5) - O/U 47.5
- Buccaneers (-3) @ Panthers - O/U 45.5
Identifying Common Roster Construction
Understanding what your opponents are most likely to do is just as important as spotting the best plays. Common roster builds form naturally when popular players are combined into a lineup. Recognizing the "chalky" construction helps us anticipate what the majority of rosters we're up against will look like, and allows us to decide the best ways to build differently for leverage without sacrificing ceiling.
QB: Jacoby Brissett ($5,300) has scored at least 20 DraftKings points in all nine of his starts, yet his salary has gotten progressively lower since Week 13. Despite the aforementioned overload of quarterback value elsewhere on the slate, Brissett's place in common lineups is chiseled in granite. Even though a handful of entrants will opt for C.J. Stroud ($5,500) or Tyler Shough ($5,400), the ordinary salary allocation at the position won't change.
RB: Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba faced off on Thursday night, leaving the high-end running backs looking more attractive than their wide receiver counterparts on this slate. Bijan Robinson ($8,700) figures to garner the highest ownership, as the field double-counts his excellent matchup against the Cardinals' rush defense. De'Von Achane may have paced the slate in popularity, but the uncertainty surrounding Miami's move to Quinn Ewers at quarterback outweighs a meeting with the Bengals' floundering defense. Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,500) draws the Steelers at home, with the Lions implied to lead the slate in scoring (29.75 points). Expect to see plenty of Robinson-Gibbs combos, especially given the uninspiring choices in the mid-range and on the low end.
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,400) and Ja'Marr Chase ($8,600) will be relatively popular, but common builds are more likely to attack the mid-range at wide receiver. DK Metcalf ($5,400) is probably the best point-per-dollar value at the position in a winnable matchup against Detroit's beleaguered secondary. Chris Olave ($6,500) has been a target hog all season and may benefit from even more volume without Devaughn Vele (shoulder) in the lineup against the Jets. Jameson Williams has been more productive over the back half of the season than his $6,400 salary suggests. And Courtland Sutton's ($5,700) involvement has ticked up in recent weeks, yet he remains moderately priced against Jacksonville's pass-funnel defense.
TE: Harold Fannin Jr. ($4,500) has emerged as a target magnet for Shedeur Sanders. The rookie's absurd supply will continue to attract the crowd against the visiting Bills, who figure to force a pass-heavy game script on the Browns. Heavy running back spending and balanced salary distribution at wide receiver will require a $3K crapper in the Flex spot of chalky builds. T.J. Hockenson ($3,000) has rebounded along with JJ McCarthy over the last three games. He projects better than any wide receiver in his price range, and could surprise as the crowd's go-to discount play.
Flipping the Common Build: It's a good week to play high-end QB-WR-WR stacks that force you to search for ceiling in the mid-range at running back. Think Joe Burrow, Chase, and Tee Higgins, or Jared Goff, St. Brown, and Jameson Williams. You're giving up projected points in your lineup by not playing two of Gibbs, Robinson, or Achane, but if any one of them has an average day and you land on the right mid-priced back, your lineup will be well-positioned to leapfrog large chunks of the field.
