Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Away | Game Total | Team Total | Running | Pass | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | Atlanta | -3.5 | 55 | 29.25 | +++ | +++ | |
| Dallas | San Francisco | -6 | 47 | 26.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Philadelphia | Washington | -4.5 | 48.5 | 26.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| New Orleans | Green Bay | -5.5 | 47 | 26.25 | ++ | ++ | |
| Tennessee | Cleveland | -5.5 | 46.5 | 26 | ++ | ++ | |
| Atlanta | New England | 3.5 | 55 | 25.75 | + | + | |
| LA Rams | Arizona | -3.5 | 47.5 | 25.5 | + | + | |
| Kansas City | Oakland | -3 | 47 | 25 | + | + | |
| Jacksonville | Indianapolis | -3.5 | 43.5 | 23.5 | |||
| Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | -5.5 | 41 | 23.25 | ++ | ||
| Minnesota | Baltimore | -5.5 | 39.5 | 22.5 | ++ | ||
| Seattle | NY Giants | -6 | 38.5 | 22.25 | +++ | ||
| Arizona | LA Rams | 3.5 | 47.5 | 22 | |||
| Washington | Philadelphia | 4.5 | 48.5 | 22 | |||
| Oakland | Kansas City | 3 | 47 | 22 | |||
| Carolina | Chicago | -3 | 40.5 | 21.75 | + | ||
| LA Chargers | Denver | -1.5 | 42 | 21.75 | |||
| Miami | NY Jets | -3.5 | 38.5 | 21 | ++ | ||
| Buffalo | Tampa Bay | -3.5 | 38 | 20.75 | ++ | ||
| Green Bay | New Orleans | 5.5 | 47 | 20.75 | |||
| Cleveland | Tennessee | 5.5 | 46.5 | 20.5 | |||
| San Francisco | Dallas | 6 | 47 | 20.5 | |||
| Denver | LA Chargers | 1.5 | 42 | 20.25 | |||
| Indianapolis | Jacksonville | 3.5 | 43.5 | 20 | |||
| Chicago | Carolina | 3 | 40.5 | 18.75 | |||
| Cincinnati | Pittsburgh | 5.5 | 41 | 17.75 | |||
| NY Jets | Miami | 3.5 | 38.5 | 17.5 | |||
| Tampa Bay | Buffalo | 3.5 | 38 | 17.25 | |||
| Baltimore | Minnesota | 5.5 | 39.5 | 17 | |||
| NY Giants | Seattle | 6 | 38.5 | 16.25 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: Mike Gillislee (Patriots)
- Receivers: Brandin Cooks/Chris Hogan/Danny Amendola/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)
- Defense: Seahawks
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Carson Wentz (Eagles), Drew Brees (Saints), Marcus Mariota (Titans)
- Running Back: Darren McFadden/Alfred Morris (Cowboys), LeGarrette Blount (Eagles), Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints), DeMarco Murray/Derrick Henry (Titans)
- Receivers: Dez Bryant/Terrance Williams/Jason Witten (Cowboys), Alshon Jeffery/Nelson Agholor/Torrey Smith/Zach Ertz (Eagles), Michael Thomas/Willie Snead/Ted Ginn Jr/Coby Fleener (Saints), Rashard Matthews/Corey Davis/Eric Decker/Delanie Walker (Titans)
- Defense: Vikings, Bills, Dolphins, Pittsburgh
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Jared Goff (Rams), Alex Smith (Chiefs)
- Running Back: Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Todd Gurley (Rams), Kareem Hunt (Chiefs),
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Justin Hardy/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Sammy Watkins/Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp (Rams), Tyreek Hill/Albert Wilson/Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
- Defense: Steelers
