Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Away | Game Total | Team Total | Running | Pass | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | San Francisco | -13 | 47.5 | 30.25 | +++ | +++ | + |
| New Orleans | Chicago | -9 | 47 | 28 | +++ | +++ | + |
| New England | LA Chargers | -7.5 | 48.5 | 28 | +++ | +++ | |
| Dallas | Washington | -2.5 | 50.5 | 26.5 | ++ | ++ | |
| Cincinnati | Indianapolis | -10 | 41.5 | 25.75 | +++ | + | ++ |
| Atlanta | NY Jets | -4.5 | 46.5 | 25.5 | + | + | |
| Seattle | Houston | -5.5 | 45.5 | 25.5 | + | + | |
| Kansas City | Denver | -7.5 | 43 | 25.25 | + | + | + |
| Buffalo | Oakland | -3 | 45.5 | 24.25 | + | + | |
| Pittsburgh | Detroit | -3 | 45 | 24 | + | + | |
| Washington | Dallas | 2.5 | 50.5 | 24 | + | ||
| Minnesota | Cleveland | -9.5 | 37.5 | 23.5 | +++ | ||
| Tampa Bay | Carolina | -2 | 44.5 | 23.25 | |||
| Carolina | Tampa Bay | 2 | 44.5 | 21.25 | |||
| Oakland | Buffalo | 3 | 45.5 | 21.25 | |||
| NY Jets | Atlanta | 4.5 | 46.5 | 21 | |||
| Detroit | Pittsburgh | 3 | 45 | 21 | |||
| LA Chargers | New England | 7.5 | 48.5 | 20.5 | |||
| Baltimore | Miami | -3.5 | 37.5 | 20.5 | + | ||
| Houston | Seattle | 5.5 | 45.5 | 20 | |||
| Chicago | New Orleans | 9 | 47 | 19 | |||
| Denver | Kansas City | 7.5 | 43 | 17.75 | |||
| San Francisco | Philadelphia | 13 | 47.5 | 17.25 | |||
| Miami | Baltimore | 3.5 | 37.5 | 17 | |||
| Indianapolis | Cincinnati | 10 | 41.5 | 15.75 | |||
| Cleveland | Minnesota | 9.5 | 37.5 | 14 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Carson Wentz (Eagles), Drew Brees (Saints), Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: LeGarrette Blount (Eagles), Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara (Saints), Mike Gillislee (Patriots), Joe Mixon (Bengals)
- Receivers: Alshon Jeffery/Nelson Agholor/Zach Ertz (Eagles), Michael Thomas/Willie Snead/Ted Ginn Jr/Coby Fleener (Saints), Brandin Cooks/Chris Hogan/Danny Amendola/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots)
- Defense: Vikings
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
- Running Back: Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys)
- Receivers: Dez Bryant/Terrance Williams/Jason Witten (Cowboys)
- Defense: Bengals
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Alex Smith (Chiefs), Tyrod Taylor (Bills), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Kirk Cousins (Redskins)
- Running Back: Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Todd Gurley (Rams), Kareem Hunt (Chiefs),
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Justin Hardy/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Doug Baldwin/Tyler Lockett/Paul Richardson Jr/Jimmy Graham (Seahawks), Tyreek Hill/Albert Wilson/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Jordan Matthews/Zay Jones/Nick O'Leary (Bills), Antonio Brown/Martavis Bryant/JuJu Smith-Schuster (Steelers), Terrelle Pryor/Josh Doctson/Jamison Crowder/Jordan Reed (Redskins)
- Defense: Ravens, Eagles, Chiefs, Saints
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