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In this feature we are going to look at the GPP contests and offer the top stacks, fades, and ownership projections for each upcoming week.
Fantasy Aces is offering a $25,000 guaranteed tournament at the $22 price point with maximum entrants of 1,520. They also have a $10,000 guaranteed tournament at the $55 price point with a maximum of 200 entries. If you haven’t tried their salary pro format, this is a format that allows you to go over or stay under the cap starting with positive points instead of 0 if you stay under and starting with negative points if you go over. They have a $2,000 Salary Pro Sluggo tournament with an entry fee of $5.50
Pittsburgh really hurt their playoff chances last week with a loss against Baltimore, and it seemed that Roethlisberger and Brown could not get in rhythm. In week 17, it is often important to look to see who has the most to play for and target players from those teams, as even though there is no guarantee that they’ll perform you get the guarantee that they’re treating this game like any other game on their schedule which isn’t always the case for some teams in week 17. In week 11, Brown had 139 yards and two touchdowns against the Browns, and is likely going to be matched up against Tramon Williams who has been awful this season sliding into the number one cornerback position with Joe Haden still sidelined with a concussion.
This stack is contingent upon at least one of Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman being out, and increases in value if both of them are out. Last week in the press conference Brady spoke extremely highly of Martin and the results directly correlated to the words he spoke as Martin had 11 targets last week against the tough Jets secondary. This week the matchup is significantly easier as Martin faces Brent Grimes and a Dolphins team that is allowing 258 yards passing per game, which is the 9th most in the NFL. Getting this stack will only cost you $11,150 which allows for tremendous roster flexibility elsewhere while still getting a top quarterback and a wide receiver that is likely going to receive 10+ targets.
Houston Texans – QB Brian Hoyer ($5,750) and WR Deandre Hopkins ($6,150)
Brian Hoyer has cleared concussion protocol and is going to start for the Texans this week. Typically we would be worried about the possibility of him only playing for one half, but with the return from injury this week it is looking likely that they’re going to want to make sure they get all the snaps in that they can in order to be prepared for next week’s playoff matchup. While the Jaguars have been great offensively, they have been awful defensively this season allowing 269.9 yards passing per game. Hopkins continues to have some of the highest upside of any wide receiver as he has had 11+ targets in 12 of his 15 games this season and has scored a touchdown in 8 of those 15 games. In his previous matchup against the Jaguars he had 15 targets for 148 yards and two touchdowns.
HIGH RISK STACK
Julio Jones is not the high risk part of this stack as New Orleans has allowed 281 yards passing per game. The risk here is that Matt Ryan has been absolutely awful this season as he only has five games this season with two or more touchdowns and has only went over 300 yards four times this season. The problem is that he has no one else to throw to so Julio Jones gets a significant number of targets. Julio Jones proved last week that he is matchup proof as he had 178 yards and a touchdown against arguably the best corner in the game in Josh Norman and this game is the highest total on the board at 52.5. There is risk due to Matt Ryan’s upside, but all it takes is him to connect with Julio multiple times in the end zone which is definitely possible in this ideal matchup.
Based on price and matchups alone you are going to have some players that are highly owned in Week 17.
Quarterback – Cam Newton Carolina Panthers ($7,100)
Cam Newton is in the key week 17 situation where they have nothing to play for and they are big favorites. Ron Rivera has said that he will not rest players if the games still have value and meaning. Carolina is an 11.5 point favorite, and with Newton’s price at $7,100 this week, would Ron Rivera rest his players if they get up to a 17-0 lead at half time? Even if the probability of this is only 10-15%, we still need to factor it in as you are paying a premium price for a quarterback. Even if they do not pull Cam, he is likely to limit his running in order to avoid taking hits as while the game still has marginal value and meaning it does not have enough in order to justify paying the price when similar quarterbacks like Ben Roethlisberger or Drew Brees are just a few hundred more..
Running Back – David Johnson Arizona Cardinals ($5,200)
David Johnson has been tremendous over the last four games since Chris Johnson’s injury and has played such a key role in both the passing game and the running game for Arizona this season. This is another situation where the Cardinals have nothing to play for as they have locked up the #2 seed in the NFC. Not to mention, they are facing a Seattle Seahawks defense that is allowing only 86 yards rushing per game which is the second best in the NFL. This would be a tough enough situation if it wasn’t week 17, but with it being week 17 and there is a potential that they may limit David Johnson’s workload this is not a situation that is ideal for production.
Wide Receiver – Doug Baldwin Seattle Seahawks ($5,600)
This is one of those games where Vegas has an inside source that Seattle is unlikely to play their starters the entire game. With how good the Seahawks have played recently, they are 7 point underdogs on the road when they originally opened as a 3 point underdog. Doug Baldwin has been tremendous over the last five games as he has scored 11 touchdowns in those games. However, at $5,600 there are better options this week such as Brandon Marshall, Brandin Cooks, and Allen Robinson.
Tight End – Greg Olsen Carolina Panthers ($4,900)
This Panthers are 11.5 point favorites in this game, and the Panthers have already locked up a bye, and with a win they can lock up home field advantage. This is a primary scenario where the Panthers starters may start for a half get up to a big lead and then bring in the backups. At $4,900 for a tight end it doesn’t matter how good the matchup is you need four quarters of production and there are other tight ends such as Delanie Walker or Jordan Reed who are going to get four quarters guaranteed of production, but we do not trust anyone from this Carolina offense even in a great situation.
Defense and Special Teams – Indianapolis Colts ($2,650)
The Indianapolis Colts are in a tremendous matchup as they’re facing Zach Mettenberger this week who is 0-9 in his career as a starter. The matchup is tremendous one for the Colts, but there are several factors which have us recommending to avoid them this week. The Colts defense is one that allowed 124 points over the last four weeks which is one of the highest in the league, and although they allowed 96 points in two of those games, this still shows that they are not one of the premiere defenses in this league. Zach Mettenberger is going to be playing for his NFL career this week and if there was ever a time for him to shine it could potentially be this week against a bad statistical defense in the Colts.
Defense and Special Teams
Indianapolis Colts ($2,650)
Denver Broncos ($3,250)
Cincinnati Bengals ($3,150)
LOW OWNERSHIP/CONTRARIAN PLAYS
Defense and Special Team
Dallas Cowboys ($2,500)
St. Louis Rams ($2,850)
Carolina Panthers ($3,100)