Projecting Ownership Percentage: FanDuel Week 17

Chad Parsons's Projecting Ownership Percentage: FanDuel Week 17 Chad Parsons Published 01/02/2016

Week 17 has a different feel than the previous few months of FanDuel preparation. One notable change is the lack of a Thursday game, where the Footballguys staff collects ownership data to craft strategies into the weekend games. Without solid ownership information, I lean on Footballguys value data to shape my exposure chart for each position. Here are my boards for Week 17:

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*Value represents consensus Footballguys points per dollar metric*
*TGT represents ideal exposure rate in terms of percentage of entry fees*

Quarterback

  Player Salary Value TGT
QB A.J. McCarron 6300 26 20
QB Ryan Mallett 6000 25 20
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 7800 25 20
QB Cam Newton 9100 25 15
QB Matthew Stafford 7700 25 15
QB Eli Manning 7500 25 10

Without a standout value at the position, diversifying away from a clear high-exposure option is best. Plus, the best values are low-floor wildcards in McCarron and Mallett. McCarron is the only listed option with a top-5 matchup. Eli Manning is No.6 for the week against the Eagles. Mallett has a noticeably difficult tilt against Cincinnati.

Running BacK

  Player Salary Value TGT
RB Devonta Freeman 8800 27 50
RB Tre Mason 4600 25 35
RB DeAngelo Williams 8200 25 35
RB Latavius Murray 6100 23 25
RB Tim Hightower 7000 22 20
RB Danny Woodhead 5700 22 20
RB David Johnson 7700 20 15

Freeman is the top play of the week by overall value and positional strength. Approaching the 50% exposure rate threshold is allowable as Freeman has a well-defined role with most of Atlanta's offense running through himself and Julio Jones. In addition to the high-floor security, Freeman has the top matchup of the week for running backs against New Orleans. Tre Mason is the low-cost reserve with an expanded role of the week with Todd Gurley hobbled. The Rams also have a top-5 running back matchup with the 49ers. David Johnson scraps onto the list with his escalating cost and bad matchup against Seattle after weeks of being an auto-play with at least 40% or more exposure recommendations.

Wide Receiver

  Player Salary Value TGT
WR Julio Jones 9300 21 30
WR DeAndre Hopkins 9000 21 30
WR Odell Beckham Jr/td> 8900 20 25
WR Antonio Brown 9100 20 25
WR Eric Decker 7400 19 25
WR Brandon Marshall 8600 19 25
WR Terrance Williams 5000 19 20
WR Willie Snead 6300 19 20
WR Jarvis Landry 7200 19 20
WR Jordan Matthews 6600 19 20
WR James Jones 5500 19 20
WR Keshawn Martin 5600 18 20
WR Sammy Watkins 7800 18 20

As mentioned with Devonta Freeman, Julio Jones has been a rock-solid play with his high-floor role in Atlanta's offense. With the typical flat tiers at receiver, taking the quarterback approach of spreading exposure is prudent. Ryan Fitzpatrick and his pair of receivers are high-quality stacking options against Buffalo. Odell Beckham Jr and the Jets receivers are the notable blends of top-10 matchups and offensive role. Julio Jones (against New Orleans), Keshawn Martin, and Sammy Watkins also log positive matchups.

Tight End

  Player Salary Value TGT
TE Rob Gronkowski 8100 19 25
TE Zach Miller 5900 19 25
TE Zach Ertz 5700 19 20
TE Greg Olsen 6600 19 20
TE Delanie Walker 6500 17 10

Zach Miller is a popular play this week and any tight end less than $6,000 with a quality projection is a consideration for at least 20% exposure, including Zach Ertz. Miller and Ertz highlight the top-5 matchups of Week 17.

Kicker

  Player Salary Value TGT
K Josh Brown 4600 21 20
K Chris Boswell 4900 21 20
K Shayne Graham 4800 21 20
K Graham Gano 4900 21 20
K Nick Novak 4600 20 20

Defense

  Player Salary Value TGT
D Indianapolis Colts 4200 28 30
D St. Louis Rams 4600 25 20
D Cincinnati Bengals 5000 24 15
D Denver Broncos 5200 24 15
D Pittsburgh Steelers 4900 23 10
D New England Patriots 4800 23 10

The Colts, Rams, and Steelers have top-5 matchups. The Colts and Rams are easy picks at low salaries.

Example Cash Game Lineup

Position Player Salary Value
QB A.J. McCarron 6300 25.9
RB Devonta Freeman 8800 26.6
RB Tre Mason 4600 25.4
WR Odell Beckham Jr/td> 8900 20.4
WR Eric Decker 7400 18.8
WR Antonio Brown 9100 20.0
TE Zach Miller 5900 19.3
K Josh Brown 4600 21.3
DST Indianapolis Colts 4200 27.9
    59800 22.8

Example Tournament Lineup

Position Player Salary Value
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 7800 24.9
RB Tim Hightower 7000 21.7
RB Tre Mason 4600 25.4
WR Brandon Marshall 8600 18.7
WR Eric Decker 7400 18.8
WR Antonio Brown 9100 20.0
TE Zach Miller 5900 19.3
K Josh Brown 4600 21.3
DST Cincinnati Bengals 5000 24.4
    60000 21.6

Photos provided by Imagn Images

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