Pick-a-Player: Hogan, Jones, or Landry - Footballguys

Photo: Imagn Images

The premise of a Pick-a-Player question is as follows:

• You need a player at that position and all three are available.
• The draft is at a stage where these players are usually drafted, and none of their bye weeks are duplicated on your current roster.

We ask two groups of people: the Footballguys staff, and the great people following the Footballguys Facebook page. If you'd like to answer a future Pick-a-Player question, there are still some open ones on our page. Plus, there is a lot of other content there as well. Like and Follow us, and you can join the great discussions taking place every day.

In this case, it is a PPR league, and you are up at Pick 5.10. Would you take Chris Hogan, Marvin Jones, or Jarvis Landry? Or would you pass on all three?

The Results

And the winner is a split. See the percentages below.

The Reasons (from the Staff)

Daniel Simpkins: I'll take a pass on these options. I'm probably taking Royce Freeman here, who I believe will be this year's breakout rookie running back.

Jason Wood: I'm not particularly enamored with this trio in the 5th round. However, Landry is 50th in my current overall PPR rankings, so he's fair value in that range. I will say, Landry in the fifth or sixth is an infinitely better choice than Josh Gordon in the third round.

Chad Parsons: I am fading all three in Round 5 and yet to pick up any shares in 2018 drafts. For Hogan, I see him losing ground once Julian Edelman returns in October. Marvin Jones has a stacked depth chart with Golden Tate and Kenny Golladay (plus a likely-to-improve run game), and Jarvis Landry has a strong surrounding depth chart (plus tight end and a glut of running backs) on an offense which should be more run-centric (and successful to be in positive game scripts) than previous seasons.

Matt Waldman: Marvin Jones easily. Fantasy analysts are still behind the curve on his actual skill set the same way they have been with Matthew Stafford. Jones is a great route runner who out-performed Julio Jones and other top receivers who faced similar top corners last year (in the box score and on film).

The Kenny Golladay love is out of control. He's a good young athlete who can catch the ball, but he must prove that he can play within control, run precise routes against tight coverage, and create separation against top defenders. He benefited a ton from Jones and Tate last year. He could earn starter production if one of the top two Lions receivers gets hurt but the variety of things the Lions do to expand its offense will be decreased not to overwhelm Golladay. As long as Jones and Tate are healthy, Golladay will be more efficient but his production won't skyrocket.

While the Lions offensive line has better personnel than recent years, they still must develop cohesion and it could take four to six games before that run game really turns it on. And if they start strong early, it will make play-action more effective and force defenses to play Jones straight-up without a safety shading his side.

Even so, Stafford has the potential to support two or three fantasy starters in the passing game and set up a runner for a fantasy-worthy campaign. The skill talent is there for the Lions to be on par with teams like the Rams and Steelers as a high-scoring unit with multiple strong options. Jones will lead the way because he's also among the best at making plays in tight windows.

Devin Knotts: I agree with Matt here that Marvin Jones is the guy that I am targeting if I am targeting any receiver in this range. To Jason's point about Josh Gordon would it surprise anyone if Marvin Jones outperformed Josh Gordon? I'm not a big believer in Kenny Golladay, yes he looked great week one on Monday night, but to me, he is nothing more than a complimentary deep threat that will actually help take coverage off of Marvin Jones.

Marvin Jones is in a pass-heavy offense which is exactly what I want for my second or third wide receiver which is a guy who will see a high volume of targets. Jones developed more chemistry in year two with Stafford and I fully expect that chemistry to continue to grow as they head into year three together.

Justin Howe: One of these things is not like the other: Hogan, who's a volatile guy without a dependable weekly path to targets. He's best-ball dynamite when he slips into Round 8 or 9, but an exceptionally shaky pick around 5.10.

In my projections, Jones edges out Landry in PPR formats but soars 19% ahead in standard scoring. He'll give up 20-30 receptions but still top Landry in yardage and touchdowns. Common sense tells us to chase volume before efficiency and leap at Landry, but Jones has proven a special brand of splash-play producer. Over 2 years as a Lion, he's produced a higher percentage of 20-yard catches than anyone, while scoring on an elite 11.2% of his receptions. There's risk, of course, that Kenny Golladay cuts into his share. But at this stage, Golladay is probably poised to be used as a situational dominator.

To me, Jones represents the tail end of his ADP tier. There will probably be better value on your board, but a drafter looking to go RB-heavy early and stockpile wideouts in the middle rounds could do much worse with him as a WR2.

Landry won't suddenly be bad in Cleveland - his sanitized, low-risk game isn't a shaky one to move from one offense into another. In many ways, he's Larry Centers. His target rate will fall a bit next to Josh Gordon, though - the days of 140+ targets are likely over. But his fantastic catch rate and redzone chops should translate nicely. He looks like a lock for 80+ catches, though his impact will be limited; he's an ideal PPR WR3 but shouldn't be prioritized any higher.

Ryan Hester: As I laid out in his Player Spotlight, Jones is a value at his ADP. He has a higher ceiling than many acknowledge as well.

Detroit's main offensive additions include two running backs who won't catch many passes. Their offensive subtractions include Eric Ebron and his 86 targets. Jones could have a relatively quiet year, be his consistent self, and return WR2 production. Or he could maintain his 2017 efficiency, add more target volume, and be a draft day bargain.

Bob Henry: I'm not looking at Landry or Hogan at this spot, but I absolutely would consider - or even take - Jones. The emergence of Kenny Golliday presents a threat to Jones more than it does Golden Tate, but let's keep in mind that Eric Ebron's departure creates opportunity and I don't see the committee of tight ends on the roster coming close to filling that gap.

I do anticipate a big leap for Golliday and perhaps even more targets distributed to the backfield, but as long as Jones is healthy I firmly believe his role is totally safe. For a good portion of last year, he performed at an elite WR1 level and there's no reason to think that's going to change. Matthew Stafford is as consistent and productive as anyone and the line should be even better this year all around.

As for Landry, I'm fading him and haven't drafted him once and probably won't unless he falls well beyond his ADP. I don't think the volume will be there for him like it was in Miami. The Browns have several weapons, almost certainly a slower offensive pace, and one that could very well lean more heavily on the running game (plus Tyrod Taylor turning several called pass plays into gains with his legs).

I do like Hogan this year, but I'm not bullish enough to go hunting for him this early in the draft. I've taken him in a few scenarios where I loaded up on running backs early and then took shots at upside receivers like Josh Gordon, Sammy Watkins, Robby Anderson and Chris Hogan. All have WR1 potential for their teams and could be in that top 10-to-15 range for fantasy if everything clicks around them.

Phil Alexander: Jones has been going in the middle of the fifth-round in the last few best ball drafts I've completed, so it's not surprising he's the near-unanimous choice here. I agree Jones is the pick, but I also won't stand for any Chris Hogan slander in this thread.

Hogan was in the midst of a breakout before injuries derailed his 2017 season. From Weeks 1-5 (the only weeks he didn't appear on the injury report or suffer an in-game injury), Hogan scored at least 17 PPR fantasy points in all games but one, with per-game averages of 7.4 targets, 4.6 receptions, 57.6 yards, and 1 touchdown per game.

In those five games, he led all Patriots pass-catchers with nine red zone targets and four red zone touchdowns. Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola's targets have been vacated and Julian Edelman will miss 30% of the fantasy football regular season. More than enough opportunity exists in New England for Hogan to finish as a high-end WR2, making him an outstanding value in this ADP range.

Dan Hindery: I agree with Phil. Marvin Jones is the safest of this trio and has plenty of upside as well. He's my favorite of the group but Chris Hogan is another worthwhile option in the late-5th or early-6th round if Jones is gone. Hogan was every bit as productive as Brandin Cooks early last season and should get even more opportunities on deep balls with Cooks in Los Angeles. Plus, Julian Edelman has been suspended the first four games and also trying to come back from a major injury at 32-years old. Edelman isn't a lock to step back in and quickly return to seeing the target share he did pre-injury at age 30. Hogan has a great chance to be the top receiver in what could easily be the league's best offense. As his ADP has slowly risen this offseason, Hogan has become less of a bargain. But he hasn't risen so far that he's not worth targeting at current ADP.

Andy Hicks: I'm not sure who would be considering Chris Hogan here. He has never been a top 50 fantasy receiver, turns 30 this year and his position in the New England pecking order is unclear. Using a 5th round pick on him would be sheer madness.

Marvin Jones is coming off a very good year, but previous to that had only flashed this ability in his five previous years. He is worth considering here, but when a guy has only done it once, a regression is not only possible but likely.

That leaves Jarvis Landry and if he were still in Miami it would be an easy choice. The concern is how will he adapt to the Cleveland Brown offense. Logic would tell you that given the size of his contract, he will be heavily used. This is the Browns though who have paid big money to Dwayne Bowe and Kenny Britt and failed spectacularly. Landry seems to be a more driven player and Cleveland are due to make some good decisions. This pick has high risk, high reward written all over it, but the optimist in me thinks it works well.

Will Grant: None of these guys are players that I would target in my draft, but Jones would be a decent value pick at 5.10 if I needed a WR. He's shown consistent improvement since coming to Detroit and should easily be their top receiver this season. If the running game improves even a little bit to take the pressure off of the passing game, Jones could actually improve since his big-play status makes him even more dangerous if defenses have to stay honest against the run.