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Projection reflections

At Footballguys, we provide real-time projections all season long. Our first set goes live the day after the NFL draft, and sometimes the changes can get lost in the shuffle. Statistics are the engine behind many of our key features, but numbers are only valuable if there's context. This feature will take a look at the key projections adjustments each week of the preseason, with an eye toward providing context and significance to the numbers.

Included in this week's column:

1. Andrew Luck gets another bump, this time into the elite tier
2. Philip Rivers drops a few spots but remains a target
3. Two popular QB2 moving in opposite directions
4. Two other starting quarterbacks you care about more than I do
5. Two changes on the quarterback depth chart
6. Early round running backs in motion
7. Peyton Barber is distancing himself from Ronald Jones II II
8. Chris Carson is winning the job, too, but it's transient
9. Three unappealing backfields catalyzing
10. The Vikings receivers are closer together than I thought
11. Draft-worthy receivers in motion
12. Two starting tight ends moving in the wrong direction
13. Trey Burton ping-ponging back up the rankings
14. Florida tight ends flip-flopping spots

Luck on the Rise

Last week, Andrew Luck got a bump along with Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson because their injury risked subsided. Luck gets another upgrade for two reasons:

1. Luck is healthy -- Disregard the box score from the second preseason game and instead focus on Luck being an iron man throughout training camp, and his ability to take hits this week without a hitch
2. Frank Reich likes to throw -- A more careful analysis of the Colts coaching tendencies showed I was too conservative projecting the team's passing attempts. Reich's offenses have averaged 600+ pass attempts. If Luck throws 600+ time (my new projection is for 550), he'll push for the No. 1 spot with Aaron Rodgers

Rolling Down the Rivers

Philip Rivers is one of my favorite quarterbacks. He's been undervalued for almost his entire career. He's been a top-10 fantasy quarterback eight times, including three of the last five years. Yet he routinely gets treated as a QB2 on draft day. As you'll note, my projections only changed by a few points -- knocking 10 attempts and 100 yards from his totals -- but in a tight tier, it was enough to drop him from QB7 to QB11. The good news is Rivers' average draft position has never approached QB7, so he's still well worth targeting at or slightly ahead of his expected draft spot.

QB2s Moving In Different Directions

Mahomes is far and away the more buzzed about player this year because fantasy managers like unproven potential. We haven't seen Patrick Mahomes II struggle yet, but history tells us he probably will. Mariota was awful last year, and that can't be ignored, which is why he's still a mid-tier QB2. But his circumstances did warrant an upgrade.

• Marcus Mariota moved from QB20 to QB17 on the back of slight increases across his passing stats. The upgrade is largely driven by increased enthusiasm for receivers Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor.
• Patrick Mahomes II falls from QB15 to QB19, mainly on a reduction of his rushing statistics. I was already lower on Mahomes than most, and this move signifies he should be passed over in nearly every draft.

Two Guys You Care About More Than I Do

Neither of these quarterbacks is high enough in my projections to matter in anything but 2-QB or Superflex leagues, but chances are you care about one (or both) a lot more.

• Derek Carr's career numbers argue for better projections. I've been reluctant because the Jon Gruden experiment is the epitome of high risk. But I was too low on Carr, and may still be because Gruden is going to call the plays, not offensive coordinator Greg Olson. If Olson is handed the play calls, expect terrible results.
• Mitchell Trubisky wasn't awful as a rookie starter, but the consensus view is he was hamstrung by the lack of supporting cast and a conservative coaching staff. While head coach Matt Nagy is an intriguing hire and the supporting cast is much improved, the evidence of progress isn't there yet.

Shuffling the Deck Chairs, Buffalo Edition

This is arguably one of the least fantasy-relevant quarterback situations in the league, but Josh Allen does have dynasty relevance, and Bills fans hope Allen become redraft worthy in a season or two.

• Josh Allen looks good enough in the preseason to get a shot early. If I were putting money down, I would bet on Allen starting Week 1, but for now, we're raising his projection to 13 games.
• Nathan Peterman was the odd man out in my projections until AJ McCarron hurt his collarbone. Now he's my bet for the guy who replaces Allen if he struggles.
• AJ McCarron was initially diagnosed with a broken collarbone but a second opinion says otherwise. Either way, his chance at starting for the Bills takes a nose dive.

Shuffling the Deck Chairs, Denver Edition

Why am I calling out a swap of one backup for another? Because I also am highly skeptical of Case Keenum. I think there's a high likelihood Keenum turns back into a pumpkin this year after his fairy godmother turned him into a carriage with the Vikings. If I'm right, Chad Kelly's ascension to the No. 2 role could make him the savvy waiver wire pickup who saves your season, particularly in Superflex and 2-QB leagues.

Early-Round Running backs in Motion

• David Johnson hasn't moved in my rankings, but I wanted to call out my projection tweaks because they signify a further distancing of Johnson from the top three of LeVeon Bell, Todd Gurley, and Ezekiel Elliott. I had Johnson's catch rate far too high; his career mark is 66% which is lower than you might have expected because Johnson -- unlike most running backs -- runs a full route tree. I also slightly increased his rushing totals, but it's still an overall net reduction.
• Joe Mixon gets another slight increase after last week's wholesale reset. The extra rushing touchdown is enough to move him from 15th to 14th.
• Kenyan Drake showed last year he can handle 20 carries, but the coaches seemed reluctant to give him that workload until injuries forced their hand. I've taken ten carries and four receptions off Drake's projection, which is enough to drop him a few spots into the middle of the RB2 group.
• Derrick Henry looks great and gets a slight bump in carries and an additional rushing touchdown.
• Royce Freeman is the truth. In a crowded rookie class, Freeman is the only one that's looked the part this entire summer. He's jumped into the RB2 tier and could move higher in next week's update depending on how the other players in the tier shake out.

Investing In The Barber Shop

It's impossible to feel good about rookie Ronald Jones II entering the heart of fantasy draft season. Beat writers, who lean toward being overly optimistic, haven't had a good thing to say about Jones. He's struggled as a pass blocker and a receiver. Meanwhile, Peyton Barber has passed every test. He's been sharp in practice. He's been the best player on the field in the Buccaneers preseason games. At this point, it makes no sense to not draft Barber several rounds ahead of Jones.

Carson Is Winning the Job, For Now

Penny has been hobbled for the last few weeks and is reportedly 236 pounds, which would be 16 pounds heavier than he weighed at the Combine. If that's true, he's going to need some time to live up to his status as a first-round pick. Meanwhile, Carson has answered the call with a healthy, productive camp. But don't lose sight of the bigger picture. When you're in the fantasy playoffs and pushing for a title, Penny is still more likely to be the leader of the pack. Invest in the best player for the full season, not for the first few games.

• Rashaad Penny has had a forgettable training camp, and that means expectations for the first few games of the season needed a haircut.
• Chris Carson gains where Penny loses. I've increased his carries, yards, targets, receptions, and receiving yards.

Is Their A Colt Worth Lassoing?

The Colts running back situation is hard to decipher. Marlon Mack has his supporters; I'm not one of them. Nyheim Hines is the higher draft pick than fellow rookie Jordan Wilkins, but beat writers have made it clear he's working mainly as a third-down receiving specialist. Which leaves Wilkins, an under-the-radar runner with a good leg drive and patience.

• Marlon Mack is banged up, as he was last year. With the Colts adding two rookies and giving one of them (Wilkins) first-team carries, Mack is not someone to target.
• Nyheim Hines is blazing fast, and well-suited to catching passes in obvious passing situations. It doesn't look like the coaches see him as someone in the mix for carries.
• Jordan Wilkins remains a long shot, which is why he's still projected third of this trio. But he's the one worth taking a late-round lottery ticket on because he could be as good, or better, than Mack.

The Patriots Shuffle Continues

With each passing week, the Patriots backfield is more of a conundrum. Last week we bumped Rex Burkhead much higher and Sony Michel much lower. This week, after Burkhead suffered an injury scare, and James White reminded the world how dynamic he is when he gets the opportunity, I've bumped White up and Burkhead down a few spots.

• Rex Burkhead falls back into the middle of the RB3 tier as I knocked off ten carries and two touchdowns. His injury history is impossible to ignore, but when he plays, he'll be dynamic.
• James White moves up to 37th and ahead of Michel thanks to ten more carries and two more touchdowns.
• Sony Michel, Jeremy Hill, and Mike Gillislee remain stable.

We Told You Washington Was In Trouble Without Guice, AKA, The Adrian Peterson Experiment

A week after losing Derrius Guice to a torn ACL, Washington's running back stable was decimated. Samaje Perine hurt his ankle, although it's not considered serious. Martez Carter, who led the team in carries and yards in the last preseason game, was released after a season-ending injury. Byron Marshall suffered a potentially season-ending injury. And Chris Thompson remains "80%" by his own diagnosis. Which explains why Jay Gruden welcomed Adrian Peterson into the fold after a workout on Monday. I wrote a detailed piece on why you should avoid Peterson on draft day, but suffice to say his further presence clouds an already unattractive situation.

• Chris Thompson's outlook remains unchanged with Peterson's signing.
• Adrian Peterson has made a career of defying the odds and may be the starter. But don't fall into the trap as anything but a last-round flier.
• Samaje Perine is a ping pong ball. From breakout rookie a year ago to bust to backup to potential post-hype sleeper, and now he's back to irrelevant. There's a chance Peterson doesn't make the 53-man roster, but assuming he does Perine falls out of the Top 50.
• Rob Kelley is technically the starter, per Jay Gruden, even after Peterson's signing. I'm not buying it. He's the least interesting of an uninspiring group.

Tightening the Spread

This isn't about preferring Stefon Diggs to Adam Thielen. In fact, I strongly favor Adam Thielen as I detailed earlier in the summer. But the Vikings rewarded Diggs with a monstrous extension and with a new quarterback in town, we have to be at least open to the possibility he'll close the gap on Thielen.

• Adam Thielen is still a top-10 fantasy receiver, the only change here is shifting one touchdown over to Diggs.
• Stefon Diggs moves up from 20th to 16th, by gaining a touchdown catch.

Other Receivers In Motion

• Corey Davis had a forgettable rookie season, but he's healthy, lining up inside and outside, and dominating.
• I started off the preseason as Marquise Goodwin's biggest fan; he was 21st in my rankings. I then detailed why my enthusiasm needed a bit of tempering. Since then, every report indicates Goodwin is the No. 1, not Pierre Garcon. So Goodwin's projections get a bump higher across the board.
• Chris Hogan gets an extra touchdown after re-examining the target distribution and his career touchdown rate.
• Alshon Jeffery may start the season on the PUP list, which would mean six games missed.
• Josh Gordon is creeping higher now that he's back with the team.
• John Brown got a huge bump last week and goes even higher this week. He's been the toast of Ravens camp, far outproducing (and out-hyping) Michael Crabtree.
• The Cowboys have a deep receiving corps, but I'm putting the chips all in on rookie Michael Gallup; I expect him to not only be the top producer in Dallas but to be viable in 12-team leagues.
• Allen Hurns should still be productive, but he loses touches in favor of Gallup.
• Kenny Golladay gets an extra five targets, enough to push him into WR5 territory.
• Head coach Steve Wilks said Christian Kirk is distancing himself in the competition for the No. 2 job.
• DeVante Parker is banged up and wasn't impressing beforehand. He could be an outright bust at this rate.
• John Ross is the favorite to win the No. 2 job, but he's still mainly a deep threat and is more of a waiver-wire priority than a must-draft breakout candidate.
• I still rank Josh Doctson below Paul Richardson Jr and Jamison Crowder, but he gains ten targets in my latest set of projections after a healthy week of practices.
• Taywan Taylor isn't in the same category as Corey Davis, but he's run with the starters for most of the preseason, too, while Rishard Matthews rehabs.

Two Starting Tight Ends Taking Injury Hits

I just upgraded Jordan Reed last week, but his injury history is too damning to go all the way in, whereas Delanie Walker -- usually a pillar of health -- is dealing with a toe injury and has missed a week of practices.

• Jordan Reed has been healthier this preseason than he's been in years, but he's still the most injury prone player being drafted as a fantasy starter.
• Delanie Walker is aging gracefully, but a toe injury has derailed his preseason, and meanwhile, Jonnu Smith, Corey Davis, and Taywan Taylor look fantastic.

Whiplash in the Windy City

Last week, I downgraded Trey Burton because Adam Shaheen was equally talented and it looked like a committee potentially. Unfortunately, Shaheen is now out indefinitely and Burton is back into the TE1 mix because he'll be the starter with no viable competition for snaps.

Floridians Moving In Opposite Directions

• O.J. Howard gets a ten target bump after closer scrutiny of the Buccaneers target distribution. He's still behind Cameron Brate in my projections but creeps into TE2 consideration.
• Austin Seferian-Jenkins loses ground because I've lowered him from 15 to 13 games played. I hadn't given enough credit to Seferian-Jenkins' injury history.

Keep in mind projections are updated in real time. And as projections are updated, the impact immediately flows through the Footballguys tools including customized draft sheets and the Draft Dominator. My views are entirely my own, and other Footballguys have their own sets of projections, including David Dodds, Bob Henry, and Maurile Tremblay.

If you have any questions, you can reach me at Wood@Footballguys.com, or on Twitter: @fbgwood