This is the second installment in the True Fantasy Points (TFP) series for 2018. If you missed the previous article on quarterbacks, click here. And if you want to learn more about the statistical methodology underlying the series, click here or here.
As was the case with quarterbacks on Monday, today's mission is to use TFP to identify running backs whose average draft positions (ADP) are out of whack with their "true" value. As you'll see, 2018 provides more fodder for the overvalued side of the spectrum than the undervalued side. Furthermore, you'll come to learn that the randomness of running back stats results in David Dodds' projections being far more in line with TFP than they were for quarterbacks.
Below is a table showing Dodds' projections, TFP, and their difference for 44 running backs who meet the following criteria:
- They're on the same team as they were last season.
- They're projected for at least 200 "opportunities," which is defined as rushing attempts plus routes run.
| Dodds' Stats | True Stats | Points | ||||||||||
| Running Back | Team | RuYds | RuTDs | ReYds | ReTDs | RuYds | RuTDs | ReYds | ReTDs | Dodds | TFP | Diff |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | 822 | 7 | 653 | 5 | 684 | 5 | 647 | 3 | 217.7 | 182.0 | +35.7 |
| Todd Gurley | LAR | 1296 | 11 | 611 | 4 | 1221 | 9 | 608 | 2 | 281.9 | 252.0 | +29.9 |
| LeVeon Bell | PIT | 1142 | 10 | 608 | 3 | 1142 | 7 | 654 | 2 | 254.8 | 237.4 | +17.4 |
| Kareem Hunt | KC | 1104 | 8 | 403 | 2 | 1044 | 7 | 418 | 2 | 212.5 | 197.4 | +15.1 |
| Mark Ingram | NO | 666 | 5 | 248 | 2 | 637 | 5 | 236 | 1 | 133.4 | 121.8 | +11.6 |
| Dalvin Cook | MIN | 1088 | 8 | 300 | 2 | 1080 | 7 | 298 | 1 | 198.8 | 188.7 | +10.1 |
| Devonta Freeman | ATL | 920 | 8 | 383 | 2 | 918 | 7 | 356 | 2 | 190.3 | 181.6 | +8.7 |
| Christian McCaffrey | CAR | 758 | 5 | 570 | 4 | 811 | 5 | 520 | 3 | 189.2 | 181.7 | +7.5 |
| T.J. Yeldon | JAX | 372 | 2 | 195 | 1 | 342 | 2 | 186 | 1 | 75.9 | 68.5 | +7.4 |
| Bilal Powell | NYJ | 466 | 4 | 205 | 1 | 473 | 3 | 206 | 1 | 94.7 | 88.2 | +6.5 |
| Duke Johnson Jr | CLE | 229 | 1 | 519 | 3 | 236 | 1 | 498 | 2 | 98.8 | 92.3 | +6.5 |
| Rex Burkhead | NE | 514 | 5 | 292 | 2 | 537 | 4 | 276 | 1 | 119.6 | 113.8 | +5.8 |
| Matt Breida | SF | 423 | 4 | 130 | 1 | 429 | 3 | 129 | 1 | 81.7 | 76.1 | +5.6 |
| Giovani Bernard | CIN | 389 | 3 | 352 | 2 | 398 | 2 | 357 | 1 | 103.5 | 98.4 | +5.1 |
| Ty Montgomery | GB | 287 | 3 | 320 | 2 | 305 | 2 | 317 | 1 | 87.1 | 83.2 | +3.9 |
| Leonard Fournette | JAX | 1195 | 10 | 420 | 3 | 1260 | 9 | 391 | 2 | 233.5 | 230.0 | +3.5 |
| Melvin Gordon | LAC | 1076 | 8 | 451 | 3 | Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags:
Forecast
Projections
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Peyton Barber
Le'Veon Bell
Giovani Bernard
Devontae Booker
Matt Breida
Rex Burkhead
Chris Carson
Corey Clement
Tevin Coleman
Alex Collins
Dalvin Cook
Kenyan Drake
Austin Ekeler
Ezekiel Elliott
D'Onta Foreman
Leonard Fournette
Devonta Freeman
Melvin Gordon III
Derrick Henry
Jordan Howard
Kareem Hunt
Mark Ingram II
David Johnson
Duke Johnson Jr
Aaron Jones
Alvin Kamara
Marlon Mack
Christian McCaffrey
Joe Mixon
Ty Montgomery II
Latavius Murray
James White
Jamaal Williams
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