While fantasy players agonize over each decision in their leagues from draft picks to trades to the waiver wire, only a small percentage of those decisions will be of significant import in the team's final outcome at season's end. Here is a look at the best candidates to be league winners by early valuation:
*Stock PPR league format assumption, but will reference quarterback and tight end-premium formats where applicable**
Round 1
Odell Beckham
The formula for Beckham is a simple one: an elite talent moving to one of the potential uptick offenses in the NFL with his best quarterback situation in recent memory. Even with an eroding Eli Manning, Beckham has averaged 18 PPR PPG each of the past three seasons. Beckham is typically available in the later first round, if not slipping to early Round 2 depending on the league.
Round 2
Mike Evans
Evans is coming off arguably his best season to date (1,500+ yards, 17+ YPC, 8 touchdowns) with optimism brimming for Tampa Bay's offense as Bruce Arians enters the coaching staff and O.J. Howard returns from injury in a critical year for Jameis Winston. Evans is typically closer to WR10 than WR5 off draft boards but is a prototypical WR1 for NFL terms and in the perfect system to exploit both his and Winston's strength on intermediate and deep targets.
Others in consideration: Patrick Mahomes II and Todd Gurley. Mahomes could lose a touchdown per game from 2018 and still be the QB1 in most formats. With Tyreek Hill avoiding suspension (for now), the needle is pointing firmly up for Mahomes to be closer to 50 touchdowns in 2019 than 35. Gurley's discount into the RB10 area is purely based on health for the PPG monster over the last two seasons (RB1 overall). Even with a decent fall in usage, Gurley is a top-three to top-five running back with the Rams' offensive output and Gurley's touchdown upside as a result.
Round 3
Leonard Fournette
Health is the biggest concern with Fournette as the high-pedigree back has missed 11 games (and parts of others) over his first two NFL seasons. On the positive side, Fournette has averaged nearly three receptions per game, is one of the unquestioned workhorse backs when healthy, and Jacksonville's offense received a stabilizing replacement quarterback in the offseason with Nick Foles in and Blake Bortles out.
Others in consideration: Amari Cooper. Once switching teams from Oakland to Dallas, Cooper became a fantasy impact. On the fringe WR1/2 line in terms of early cost, Cooper is one of the few top-five upside receivers from the middle rounds.
Rounds 4-5
Sammy Watkins
Watkins may slide in cost with Tyreek Hill avoiding suspension, but health has been the biggest hurdle for Watkins - as well as constant team changes - of late. Watkins finally sees some stability with another year in Kansas City. Watkins came up big in the playoffs last season (10-176-0 over two games) after missing six regular-season games and being up-and-down overall.
Kerryon Johnson
As Detroit shifts to a run-oriented offense, they continue to bolster the offensive line - like with top-10 pick T.J. Hockenson, blocking tight end extraordinaire, this offseason. Johnson's profile is an attractive one as a 21-year-old rookie in 2018 and averaged nearly four targets per game. Johnson is around RB20 in early ADP and an easy top-10 upside candidate at the position with his dual-threat ability and workhorse potential.
Rounds 6-10
D.J. Moore
Typically available in the WR25-30 zone, Moore's historical view as a productive 21-year-old rookie transitioning to Year 2 is tremendously positive. The depth chart in Carolina is wide open for Moore to be the unquestioned WR1 and the biggest risk with anointing Moore as a 2019 breakout performer is potentially being a year early. Round 1 receivers with his elite metric profile exiting college at 21 years old hit the WR1 landscape in fantasy with regularly. Moore can be rostered at the cost of a team's WR3.
Jared Cook
Cook was a top-five fantasy tight end last year in his best season to date, despite being on a lost Oakland offense. Cook found his way to New Orleans with the best quarterback of his career and an optimized offense to maximize his still-present speed on intermediate and deep routes. Cook is what the Saints hoped to have from Cody Fleener a few seasons ago, a failed experiment at the position. Cook is one of the prime tight end candidates to crash the top-three by season's end yet is close to TE10 in cost.
Corey Davis
The historical view on Davis is an elite metric profile with a top-five draft pedigree who broke out in Year 2 on a middling (at best) Tennessee passing game. Comps to Davis emerged with mid-to-high WR1 seasons at a strong rate in Year 3 and the quarterback situation is one of the central aspect keeping Davis' ADP at bay (WR30-40) for 2019. Davis has minimal depth chart pressure or competition for targets and even if Marcus Mariota fails to take a step forward in health or play this season, Tennessee brought in Ryan Tannehill as a high-end relief plan if needed.
Rounds 11+
Damien Harris
The story to tell for Harris to be a Year 1 impact is a simple one: Sony Michel's balky knee and constantly monitored health status. Harris has a lead back profile and was drafted on Day 2 just 12 months after New England invested a first-round pick in Michel. Harris as the lead back for the Patriots is a touchdown-per-game projection with easily RB1 upside. Harris is simmering in the RB45-50 range of ADP at the time of publication.
Kalen Ballage
Ballage's cost this offseason is equal or less than a year ago despite a thinned out Miami depth chart with only never-a-full-time-starter Kenyan Drake in front of him. Ballage has a poor man's David Johnson-type profile and is an injury away from gobbling up high-level touches on a Miami team likely playing catchup to utilize his receiving ability much of the season.
Alexander Mattison
One of the high-leverage backup jobs in the NFL is behind oft-injured Dalvin Cook in Minnesota. Enter Mattison as a Day 2 selection this offseason. The three-down back at Boise State has a well-balanced profile including prototypical size and is a strong bet to start games this season in the absence of Dalvin Cook. Anything serious for Cook and Mattison, like Latavius Murray previously, turns into a weekly fantasy starter with upside from there. Mattison is outside RB50 in ADP at the time of publication.
