The Good and Bad of Drafting Devonta Freeman

Photo: Chuck Cook, USA Today Sports

Are You Risk Tolerant?

Devonta Freeman’s consensus ranking puts him near the top of a tightly bunched tier of RB2s, and that seems logical given what we know of his talent, history, and projected role in 2019. Ultimately, the decision to draft Freeman comes down to two things – are you comfortable with his injury history and do you see Dirk Koetter as an upgrade over Steve Sarkisian?

Reasons for Optimism

• He’s a proven talent with multiple RB1 seasons
• He’s fully healthy after nearly two years of disparate injuries
• There’s a much-needed infusion of young talent on the offensive line
• The team lacks depth and viable competition for touches

Reasons for Pessimism

• It’s been two full seasons since Freeman was worth his current cost
• New OC Dirk Koetter has architected many ineffective ground games in the last eight years

Unquestionable Talent

DeVonta Freeman proved in 2015 and 2016; he’s a force to be reckoned with. In his second season, Freeman took over the lead role after Atlanta wisely parted ways with Steven Jackson. He rumbled for 1,056 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns and caught 73 receptions for 578 yards and another three scores. He finished as the No. 1 fantasy running back. Freeman followed up his breakout year with 1,079 yards rushing, 11 rushing scores, 54 receptions, and two receiving touchdowns; he was the 6th-best running back. Over that span, the 5-foot-8, 206-pounder ran with power inside and out. He broke tackles and showed an ability to hit the home run. And his versatility as a receiver was critical in Matt Ryan’s elevation into elite status.

The Torment of the Trainer’s Table

Injuries are a part of football. But there are cumulative effects that cannot be discounted. If you’re a fantasy drafter who disavows the idea of being “injury-prone,” you’re likely going to be comfortable targeting Freeman in the second or third round of drafts. If you’re someone who worries about players ever recovering from cumulative maladies, Freeman may be on your “do not draft list.” Here’s a quick summary of Freeman’s injury history:

• November 2015 – Concussion (One game missed)
• August 2017 – Concussion (Two weeks of the preseason missed)
• November 2017 – Concussion (Two games missed)
• December 2017 – Sprained MCL and PCL (No time missed)
• September 2018 – Knee Bruise (Three games missed)
• October 2018 – Sports Hernia (Season-ending)

The good news is Freeman is recovering well from hernia surgery, and he expects to be 100% for the start of training camp. Given his injury history, and how it’s robbed his effectiveness, he cannot afford a setback during the summer. Any setback should drop his draft stock at least a round or two. The one issue that won’t be resolved is the concussion history. Three (known) concussions in three years are problematic. Another concussion could force him to the sidelines for an indeterminate period.

Youth + Talent on the Offensive Line

The Falcons offensive line was a case of the haves and have nots. Left tackle Jake Matthews and center Alex Mack played all 1,057 snaps and were elite; you can’t get much better than either at their respective positions. But the other three spots were problematic as right tackle Ryan Schraeder struggled as both a run and pass blocker, guard Wes Schweitzer was below replacement-level in the run game and guards Ben Garland and Brandon Fusco barely held their own in part-time duties.

The front office prioritized the line in the offseason, and it’s difficult to imagine the unit won’t be improved, if not significantly so.

2019 Projected Starting Offensive Line

• Left Tackle – Jake Matthews (Elite incumbent)
• Left Guard – James Carpenter (Veteran free agent)
• Center – Alex Mack (Elite incumbent)
• Right Guard – Chris Lindstrom (1st-round rookie)
• Right Tackle – Kaleb McGary (1st-round rookie)

Koetter’s Back, but is that a Good Thing?

Dirk Koetter returns to the Falcons after four years in Tampa Bay. He served as the offensive coordinator from 2012-14 under Mike Smith and was responsible for some of Matt Ryan’s best years. The sticky wicket is Koetter’s play-calling tendencies have rarely led to a successful rushing attack, at least since his early days in Jacksonville.

Koetter's Offensive Ranks (out of 32 teams), as an NFL Play Caller

Koetter was all about the run game in his first stint as a play-caller. Relying on Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. But something happened once he landed in Atlanta. There was a honeymoon in 2012 as the Falcons finished 7th in points scored, but it was downhill from there.

• Ranked 22nd or worse in rushing attempts in six of eight seasons
• Ranked 21st in rushing attempts, on average
• Ranked 24th or worse in rushing yards in seven of eight seasons
• Ranked 24th in rushing yards, on average
• Ranked in the bottom half of the league in rushing touchdowns four times
• Ranked 20th in rushing touchdowns, on average
• Ranked 21st or worse in yards per carry in seven of eight seasons
• Ranked 23rd in yards per carry, on average
• Ranked in the bottom half of the league in fumbles lost, four times
• Ranked 17th in fumbles lost, on average

Can Koetter recapture the magic from his time in Jacksonville? If not, he may single-handedly derail an otherwise promising outlook for Freeman.

At Least There’s No Competition for Touches

Tevin Coleman reunited with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, leaving a gaping void in the running back stable. Coleman averaged nearly 13 touches per game with Atlanta, and the team did nothing to replace that workload in free agency. Ito Smith returns as Freeman’s de facto No. 2, but Smith failed to capitalize on his opportunities as a rookie. He averaged 3.5 yards per carry and graded poorly as a pass blocker. Kenjon Barner slots as the No. 3, and he’s got just 96 career rushing attempts in six seasons (playing for four teams). The bottom line is Devonta Freeman will be given every opportunity to reestablish a heavy workload, playing in all game scripts.

Stats and Projections

Final Thoughts

Devonta Freeman is unquestionably capable of delivering on his current ADP. He's been a fantasy RB1 twice and is being drafted as an RB2 this year, so one could argue there's upside. But his draft position is justified because the upside is countered against the risks born out of his injuries and the less-than-stellar track record of offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. Freeman is part of a big group of potential RB2s going in the same range, and each has his own puts and takes. Each has his fans, and each has his detractors. It's difficult to argue Freeman is a definitively better choice than Aaron Jones or Marlon Mack, it really comes down to what types of risk are you comfortable taking? If Freeman has a strong training camp and is no worse for wear, his ADP is more than justifiable. But any setbacks this summer should be enough to discount Freeman a round or two.

Other Viewpoints

The Fantasy Footballers' Ryan Weisse is more optimistic about Dirk Koetter:

"Let me paint you a picture of my expectations of 2019 and we’ll see if you can live up to them. Sarkisian is gone (Thank goodness) and Tevin Coleman followed Shanny to San Fran, so 2 of your biggest hurdles are already in the past. The new OC, Dirk Koetter, was with the team from 2012-2014, which includes your rookie year, so there should be some familiarity there. In his 12 years as a head coach or offensive coordinator, Koetter has produced five RB1, two RB2, and three RB3."

Our own Matt Waldman is all-in on Freeman to bounce back:

"Freeman will be the man in Atlanta. With a game predicated on quickness, balance, and creativity, Freeman is a smart runner and should deliver 1,400-1,600 total yards behind a line that has some new blood that's inexperienced but talented—specifically, Chris Lindstrom rookie who fits best at right guard despite often scouted as a tackle.

Freeman is 100 percent past his October groin surgery. He has battled injuries that cost him 50 percent of the past two years' worth of games, but the team's offseason acquisitions suggest that it's supremely confident in Freeman returning to form.

He's one of the smartest running backs in the NFL and I'm expecting a return to no worse than top-15 fantasy production."

Twitter: @FBGWood