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It is hard to believe the NFL regular season is here, but Week 1 gets underway shortly. If you are like me, you still have several key drafts to complete over the next few days. As many of you know, I published my first set of full projections in early February, meaning I have been forecasting this season for over six months. A lot can change in six months; that is practically a decade in NFL parlance.
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So, as we close out draft season and turn our attention to Week 1, I want to highlight the players who have shifted my perspective and explain why. Unlike prior years' versions of this article, I am also examining the biggest movers across the industry to see where consensus trends overlap with my own board.
Wide Receiver: Biggest ADP Risers (April 26 to August 31)
| Player | Positional Rank | ADP | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | August | Change | April | August | Change | |
| Keenan Allen | WR104 | WR61 | ↑43 | 215.6 | 152.3 | ↑63.3 |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | WR93 | WR59 | ↑34 | 213.7 | 149.4 | ↑64.3 |
| Caleb Douglas | WR101 | WR75 | ↑26 | 215.5 | 179.1 | ↑36.4 |
| Devaughn Vele | WR101 | WR76 | ↑25 | 215.5 | 185.7 | ↑29.8 |
| DeMario Douglas | WR115 | WR90 | ↑25 | 215.9 | 213.7 | ↑2.2 |
| De'Zhaun Stribling | WR72 | WR49 | ↑23 | 185.0 | 108.3 | ↑76.7 |
| Pat Bryant | WR92 | WR70 | ↑22 | 213.1 | 170.2 | ↑42.9 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR62 | WR45 | ↑17 | 156.4 | 94.6 | ↑61.8 |
| Malachi Fields | WR94 | WR77 | ↑17 | 213.8 | 187.6 | ↑26.2 |
| Kyle Williams | WR109 | WR92 | ↑17 | 215.8 | 214.0 | ↑1.8 |
| Jaylin Noel | WR98 | WR83 | ↑15 | 215.1 | 204.3 | ↑10.8 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR67 | WR54 | ↑13 | 171.0 | 128.8 | ↑42.2 |
| Quentin Johnston | WR46 | WR34 | ↑12 | 105.8 | 72.4 | ↑33.4 |
| Ryan Flournoy | WR81 | WR69 | ↑12 | 199.5 | 169.5 | ↑30.0 |
| Rashod Bateman | WR99 | WR87 | ↑12 | 215.2 | 211.2 | ↑4.0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | WR75 | WR64 | ↑11 | 189.3 | 159.3 | ↑30.0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | WR78 | WR68 | ↑10 | 193.5 | 168.3 | ↑25.2 |
| Josh Downs | WR48 | WR39 | ↑9 | 110.0 | 83.3 | ↑26.7 |
| Ted Hurst III | WR89 | WR80 | ↑9 | 211.1 | 198.7 | ↑12.4 |
| Parker Washington | WR36 | WR28 | ↑8 | 73.8 | 55.3 | ↑18.5 |
| Tre Tucker | WR68 | WR60 | ↑8 | 174.1 | 150.0 | ↑24.1 |
| Tyquan Thornton | WR101 | WR93 | ↑8 | 215.5 | 214.6 | ↑0.9 |
| Jayden Reed | WR42 | WR36 | ↑6 | 90.9 | 78.1 | ↑12.8 |
| Keon Coleman | WR95 | WR89 | ↑6 | 214.4 | 212.0 | ↑2.4 |
| A.J. Brown | WR12 | WR7 | ↑5 | 27.5 | 18.5 | ↑9.0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR24 | WR19 | ↑5 | 48.9 | 36.6 | ↑12.3 |
| Tre' Harris | WR70 | WR65 | ↑5 | 177.3 | 160.3 | ↑17.0 |
| Malik Washington | WR77 | WR72 | ↑5 | 192.3 | 173.9 | ↑18.4 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR20 | WR16 | ↑4 | 41.7 | 33.6 | ↑8.1 |
| Matthew Golden | WR50 | WR46 | ↑4 | 111.9 | 99.5 | ↑12.4 |
| Xavier Worthy | WR52 | WR48 | ↑4 | 115.2 | 106.8 | ↑8.4 |
| Zachariah Branch | WR85 | WR81 | ↑4 | 208.0 | 200.4 | ↑7.6 |
| Chris Olave | WR15 | WR12 | ↑3 | 34.7 | 27.2 | ↑7.5 |
| Zay Flowers | WR18 | WR15 | ↑3 | 39.4 | 31.4 | ↑8.0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | WR76 | WR73 | ↑3 | 189.5 | 174.5 | ↑15.0 |
| Chris Bell | WR82 | WR79 | ↑3 | 201.6 | 192.5 | ↑9.1 |
Wide Receiver: Biggest ADP Fallers (April 26 to August 31)
| Player | Positional Rank | ADP | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | August | Change | April | August | Change | |
| Chris Brazzell II | WR85 | WR157 | ↓72 | 208.0 | 216.0 | ↓8.0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | WR61 | WR126 | ↓65 | 155.7 | 216.0 | ↓60.3 |
| Christian Kirk | WR80 | WR116 | ↓36 | 199.4 | 215.9 | ↓16.5 |
| Tyreek Hill | WR71 | WR98 | ↓27 | 182.1 | 215.5 | ↓33.4 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | WR65 | WR86 | ↓21 | 166.6 | 207.2 | ↓40.6 |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR66 | WR84 | ↓18 | 170.4 | 205.1 | ↓34.7 |
| Brenen Thompson | WR96 | WR114 | ↓18 | 214.6 | 215.9 | ↓1.3 |
| Antonio Williams | WR74 | WR91 | ↓17 | 188.5 | 213.8 | ↓25.3 |
| Elijah Sarratt | WR84 | WR100 | ↓16 | 207.2 | 215.6 | ↓8.4 |
| Omar Cooper Jr.. | WR56 | WR71 | ↓15 | 134.3 | 173.9 | ↓39.6 |
| Jauan Jennings | WR59 | WR74 | ↓15 | 149.4 | 177.4 | ↓28.0 |
| Darnell Mooney | WR83 | WR97 | ↓14 | 201.9 | 215.4 | ↓13.5 |
| Calvin Ridley | WR69 | WR82 | ↓13 | 175.0 | 203.1 | ↓28.1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR41 | WR53 | ↓12 | 90.7 | 121.2 | ↓30.5 |
| Germie Bernard | WR73 | WR85 | ↓12 | 185.3 | 205.4 | ↓20.1 |
| Tory Horton | WR88 | WR100 | ↓12 | 211.0 | 215.6 | ↓4.6 |
| Jordyn Tyson | WR31 | WR42 | ↓11 | 63.8 | 91.0 | ↓27.2 |
| Alec Pierce | WR34 | WR44 | ↓10 | 68.9 | 94.4 | ↓25.5 |
| Ricky Pearsall | WR44 | WR52 | ↓8 | 97.0 | 119.1 | ↓22.1 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR14 | WR21 | ↓7 | 33.8 | 40.6 | ↓6.8 |
| Romeo Doubs | WR45 | WR52 | ↓7 | 103.4 | 116.9 | ↓13.5 |
| Jalen McMillan | WR57 | WR63 | ↓6 | 138.2 | 159.2 | ↓21.0 |
| Troy Franklin | WR90 | WR96 | ↓6 | 211.4 | 215.3 | ↓3.9 |
| Mike Evans | WR22 | WR27 | ↓5 | 45.4 | 53.1 | ↓7.7 |
| Rashee Rice | WR9 | WR13 | ↓4 | 20.4 | 27.5 | ↓7.1 |
| Jayden Higgins | WR53 | WR57 | ↓4 | 123.9 | 133.6 | ↓9.7 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR17 | WR20 | ↓3 | 37.7 | 38.9 | ↓1.2 |
| Michael Wilson | WR40 | WR43 | ↓3 | 83.3 | 91.7 | ↓8.4 |
| Travis Hunter | WR63 | WR66 | ↓3 | 159.7 | 163.1 | ↓3.4 |
| Skyler Bell | WR91 | WR94 | ↓3 | 211.9 | 214.9 | ↓3.0 |
The Wide Receivers Who Changed My Mind (Sorted by Consensus ADP)
- Justin Jefferson (ADP: WR6) should bounce back, but not to his previous top-five ceiling.
- A.J. Brown (ADP: WR7) landed in an ideal scheme and will be a fantasy force of nature.
- Malik Nabers (ADP: WR8) is no longer an automatic selection at the 1-2 turn after a delayed recovery.
- George Pickens (ADP: WR11) deserves equal billing with CeeDee Lamb.
- Luther Burden III (ADP: WR22) is my preferred Chicago target over Rome Odunze.
- Jameson Williams (ADP: WR24) is a bona fide WR2 option rather than a fragile WR3.
- DJ Moore (ADP: WR26) remains an outstanding value, even as the market inches upward.
- The 49ers' pass-catching corps has completely reshuffled around Mike Evans (ADP: WR27), De'Zhaun Stribling (ADP: WR49), and Deebo Samuel Sr. (ADP: WR54).
- Parker Washington (ADP: WR28) took over Jacksonville's receiver room, but his ADP climbed a full round too high.
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (ADP: WR33) edges out Michael Wilson in a pure ceiling play.
- Makai Lemon (ADP: WR37) is priced ahead of Dontayvion Wicks (ADP: WR64), but Wicks has the inside track on the starting job.
- Stefon Diggs (ADP: WR45) is the Commanders' WR2, not Brandon Aiyuk (ADP: WR126).
- Wan'Dale Robinson (ADP: WR51) drops a tier behind Carnell Tate, but remains a stable PPR depth asset.
- Tre Tucker (ADP: WR60) is the clear receiver to own in Las Vegas, even if overall volume stays limited.
- Caleb Douglas (ADP: WR75) and Malachi Fields (ADP: WR77) are mandatory late-round lottery stashes.
- Jayden Higgins (ADP: Undrafted) lost his season to an ACL tear, removing a prime Year 2 breakout candidate.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (ADP: WR6)
Justin Jefferson should bounce back this year, but not back to the top-five levels we are accustomed to seeing.
What I Thought: Right after the NFL draft, I had Jefferson slotted at WR3 behind only Ja'Marr Chase and Puka Nacua. Jefferson had finished 5th, 2nd, 4th, and 4th in the four seasons preceding 2025's injury- and quarterback-plagued WR36 per-game finish. Betting on a swift rebound under Kevin O'Connell seemed like an automatic call once Minnesota sorted out its quarterback room.
What I Think: When I rolled up my sleeves, I found multiple reasons to temper my initial enthusiasm. I am not completely out on Jefferson by any means, but he ends up ranking WR8 for me. That shift turns him from a priority first-round target into a player I am entirely content letting pass by at ADP.
