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It is hard to believe the NFL regular season is here, but Week 1 gets underway shortly. If you are like me, you still have several key drafts to complete over the next few days. As many of you know, I published my first set of full projections in early February, meaning I have been forecasting this season for over six months. A lot can change in six months; that is practically a decade in NFL parlance.
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So, as we close out draft season and turn our attention to Week 1, I want to highlight the players who have shifted my perspective and explain why. Unlike prior years' versions of this article, I am also examining the biggest movers across the industry to see where consensus trends overlap with my own board.
Running Back: Biggest ADP Risers (April 26 to August 31)
| Player | Positional Rank | ADP | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | August | Change | April | August | Change | |
| MarShawn Lloyd | RB73 | RB44 | ↑29 | 215.6 | 135.1 | ↑80.5 |
| Seth McGowan | RB91 | RB65 | ↑26 | 216.0 | 212.0 | ↑4.0 |
| Najee Harris | RB77 | RB62 | ↑15 | 215.7 | 199.5 | ↑16.2 |
| Jonathon Brooks | RB42 | RB29 | ↑13 | 129.0 | 75.7 | ↑53.3 |
| Jaydon Blue | RB68 | RB56 | ↑12 | 214.5 | 184.0 | ↑30.5 |
| Kaelon Black | RB67 | RB58 | ↑9 | 213.4 | 185.5 | ↑27.9 |
| George Holani | RB81 | RB72 | ↑9 | 215.9 | 214.9 | ↑1.0 |
| Tank Bigsby | RB57 | RB49 | ↑8 | 180.0 | 152.0 | ↑28.0 |
| Samaje Perine | RB77 | RB70 | ↑7 | 215.7 | 213.7 | ↑2.0 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB24 | RB18 | ↑6 | 56.9 | 44.2 | ↑12.7 |
| Keaton Mitchell | RB48 | RB43 | ↑5 | 149.5 | 130.3 | ↑19.2 |
| Chase Brown | RB12 | RB8 | ↑4 | 20.3 | 14.3 | ↑6.0 |
| Malik Davis | RB72 | RB68 | ↑4 | 215.5 | 213.2 | ↑2.3 |
| Cam Skattebo | RB22 | RB19 | ↑3 | 50.7 | 46.0 | ↑4.7 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB25 | RB22 | ↑3 | 57.0 | 49.7 | ↑7.3 |
| Jordan Mason | RB38 | RB35 | ↑3 | 119.6 | 96.2 | ↑23.4 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | RB51 | RB48 | ↑3 | 164.8 | 144.8 | ↑20.0 |
| Ray Davis | RB62 | RB59 | ↑3 | 204.1 | 186.2 | ↑17.9 |
Running Back: Biggest ADP Fallers (April 26 to August 31)
| Player | Positional Rank | ADP | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | August | Change | April | August | Change | |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB58 | RB83 | ↓25 | 192.6 | 215.9 | ↓23.3 |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB50 | RB61 | ↓11 | 160.7 | 198.5 | ↓37.8 |
| James Conner | RB64 | RB75 | ↓11 | 210.9 | 215.5 | ↓4.6 |
| Kaytron Allen | RB59 | RB69 | ↓10 | 193.8 | 213.6 | ↓19.8 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB27 | RB36 | ↓9 | 69.2 | 99.8 | ↓30.6 |
| Zach Charbonnet | RB43 | RB52 | ↓9 | 137.2 | 163.9 | ↓26.7 |
| Nicholas Singleton | RB55 | RB64 | ↓9 | 179.2 | 211.0 | ↓31.8 |
| Demond Claiborne | RB65 | RB73 | ↓8 | 211.8 | 215.4 | ↓3.6 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB44 | RB51 | ↓7 | 139.6 | 161.7 | ↓22.1 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB14 | RB20 | ↓6 | 26.9 | 46.3 | ↓19.4 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB20 | RB26 | ↓6 | 47.4 | 60.7 | ↓13.3 |
| Kyle Monangai | RB32 | RB38 | ↓6 | 87.0 | 108.1 | ↓21.1 |
| De'Von Achane | RB7 | RB12 | ↓5 | 13.8 | 17.3 | ↓3.5 |
| Sean Tucker | RB61 | RB66 | ↓5 | 202.5 | 212.7 | ↓10.2 |
| Jordan James | RB66 | RB71 | ↓5 | 212.1 | 214.6 | ↓2.5 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB6 | RB10 | ↓4 | 11.6 | 16.1 | ↓4.5 |
| Bucky Irving | RB19 | RB23 | ↓4 | 43.0 | 52.1 | ↓9.1 |
| RJ Harvey | RB29 | RB33 | ↓4 | 78.5 | 88.0 | ↓9.5 |
| Brian Robinson Jr | RB52 | RB55 | ↓3 | 167.2 | 183.6 | ↓16.4 |
The Running Backs Who Changed My Mind (Sorted by Consensus ADP)
- Omarion Hampton (ADP: RB9) has round-tripped his way firmly back into the top 10.
- Derrick Henry (ADP: RB11) continues to defy the age curve and stands out as a priority value.
- De'Von Achane (ADP: RB12) carries massive structural risk, and consensus has finally started to account for Miami's situation.
- Jeremiyah Love (ADP: RB13) is an easy fade in the early rounds given Arizona's offensive outlook.
- Javonte Williams (ADP: RB16) is a gift if he slides into the third round.
- D'Andre Swift (ADP: RB18) has earned clear separation in Chicago.
- Quinshon Judkins (ADP: RB24) is fully healthy and positioned as an every-down workhorse in Cleveland.
- Jadarian Price (ADP: RB25) carries the immediate opportunity needed to justify his draft-day cost.
- Rhamondre Stevenson (ADP: RB27) should be drafted ahead of teammate TreVeyon Henderson (ADP: RB26).
- Jonathon Brooks (ADP: RB29) is healthy and has redefined his trajectory.
- Josh Jacobs (ADP: RB37) is completely undraftable following his placement on the Commissioner's Exempt list.
Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers (ADP: RB9)
Omarion Hampton has round-tripped his way out of and back into the top 10.
What I Thought: I ranked Hampton at RB7 straight out of the gate, believing the combination of Mike McDaniel's offensive scheme and a significantly healthier offensive line would allow Hampton to meet the lofty expectations we held for him as a rookie.
What I Think: What a whirlwind few weeks it has been for Hampton. The broader industry was bullish as well, albeit a few slots behind my projection. Then we all endured a week of panic when McDaniel declared that Hampton, Keaton Mitchell, and Kimani Vidal would all play significant snaps, openly warning fantasy managers to prepare for frustration. After that brief wave of collective anxiety, I circled back to history: McDaniel routinely made equally alarming and misleading pronouncements about his Miami backfields, yet De'Von Achane still emerged as an elite producer. Hampton remains a locked-in RB1.
