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Many of my Gut Check articles between May and July focus on analysis that I conduct to create my August draft plans. Those articles feature analysis that leads me to recommend what I think is best. This week, I'm taking a break from that to share a list of players that I like from each 12-pick tier in David Dodds' Top 300 Player Rankings in June.
These are players I believe in regardless of what my analysis recommends and I'm willing to go down with the ship if enough of these guys falter. It's unlikely I will try to draft all of these players on every team, but a handful of them will be on many of my crews heading into the fall.
First round: RB Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas)
Always the most difficult tier to choose one player, Elliot beats out a loaded field that includes Davante Adams, David Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Alvin Kamara, and Christian McCaffery. Each candidate from this tier is worth serious consideration and deserves an honorable mention:
The Gut Check has Adams projected for 180 targets, 118 receptions, 1,478 yards, and 14 touchdowns in Matt LaFleur's play-action passing offense that should maximize Adams' route running and YAC skills. He's one of the few players coming off a career-year where I'm optimistic he can add to it. If picking from the second-half of the first round, Adams is at the top of the list.
If there's a receiver capable of matching Adams' volume and scoring potential, it's Hopkins. Despite playing hurt last year, Hopkins had a career-year in every receiving category. Hopkins falls behind Adams in the pecking order because one of Keke Coutee and/or Will Fuller should be healthy enough to direct targets way from Hopkins. This is great for the Texans' offense, but it removes Hopkins' overall upside in the fantasy pantheon.
McCaffrey is a stud yardage gainer who could lead the NFL backs in yards from scrimmage. The Gut Check's current yards-from-scrimmage projection for McCaffery is 1,967 yards and 12 touchdowns. If you're drafting your first-round pick based the fantasy floor of his volume ahead of touchdowns, McCaffrey is one of the safest picks on the board. However, most of the top 5-6 backs on yours truly's board have similar yardage projections, so why not opt for the option with the highest potential for touchdowns?
When it comes to David Johnson, the same question applies to him as it does Christian McCaffery. Both runners have mobile quarterbacks with the dynamic skills to earn touchdowns in the red zone with their legs.
The subtraction of Mark Ingram could give Alvin Kamara a feature-back share of touches in New Orleans. Or, Latavius Murray is the next man up to replace Ingram's volume and cap Kamara's fantasy ceiling. Yours truly isn't buying the "Murray = Ingram" replacement value and he's projecting Kamara for 1,698 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns—a career-year. However, Sean Payton's tendencies dictate a touch percentage for Kamara that's not on par for feature-back production.
Last year, Kamara earned 41 percent of the team's carries in this offense. In 2016-2017, Ingram earned at least 50 percent of the attempts. If staying true to the role, yours truly's projection for Kamara to earn 48 percent of the attempts for the Saints' ground game this year is a little too high. While possible Kamara earns more carries than Murray, the likelihood of it happening is historically a stretch.
The scenarios for the players above are why Elliott remains a player that the Gut Check feels best about drafting first and going down with the ship if the selection fails. Elliott delivered 2,002 yards from scrimmage despite losing Pro Bowl center Travis Elliott for the season and "sixth offensive lineman" Jason Witten to temporary retirement.
With these two returning and Amari Cooper bolstering the perimeter passing game, Elliott should sustain his yardage totals. In 2016, Elliot earned 1,994 yards and 16 touchdowns behind an excellent offensive line, Witten in the fold, and Dez Bryant still delivering nearly 800 yards and 8 touchdowns.
There's a lot of buzz about rookie Tony Pollard, the running back-receiver hybrid from Memphis. Gil Brandt believes Pollard will earn excellent rookie production that will cut into Elliott's upside to the tune of 115 carries, 512 rushing yards, 5 rushing touchdowns, and 35 receptions.
Pollard has speed and he looked comfortable finding creases between the tackles during the Senior Bowl — notable because he was seldom used this way at Memphis. There are two problems with this projection. One, Pollard is largely an unproven running back and, two, Elliott is one of the few running backs who dictates defensive coverages from the offensive backfield.
For defenses to play the run honestly, Pollard will have to be on the field at the same time as Elliott. If this happens, the Cowboys will have to remove Witten or Randall Cobb from the field more than their skills and experience would lead us to believe.
Yours truly has a far more modest projection for Pollard — 32 attempts, 125 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 34 targets, 28 receptions, 210 receiving yards and 1 receiving touchdown. This is close to the combined totals for Darren McFadden and Lance Dunbar in 2016 when Elliot earned 1,994 yards and 16 touchdowns.
Elliott's yardage floor rivals McCaffery, Johnson, and Kamara, and his touchdown ceiling is closer to 20 than any of this trio or the trio of receivers listed above. It's why the Gut Check will roll with arguably the best all-around running back in the NFL whose full complement of blockers are returning in 2019.
second ROUND: RB Joe Mixon (Cincinnati)
Nick Chubb is a personal fave because yours truly has long contended that he has Elliott's level of talent. However, we may see Odell Beckham become the red-zone favorite in Cleveland this year thanks to what should be quick-developing chemistry between the receiver and Baker Mayfield. A 1,400-yard, 12-touchdown season is a reasonable ceiling for Beckham in 2019 and he nearly earned this spot.
On the opposite side of the Ohio border is Joe Mixon, the player with the best combination of elite talent, scheme, a high fantasy floor, and big-time fantasy ceiling. Mixon earned nearly five yards per carry, 9 touchdowns, and 1,464 total yards despite losing A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert last year. While no one is counting on Eifert to return as a Pro-Bowl receiving threat, Green is a coverage-changer at wide receiver who can help extend runs from big-play carries of 10-12 yards into breakaways.
The bigger news is the addition of offensive coordinator Zac Taylor who has already revealed that the Bengals will be using a scheme similar to the Los Angeles Rams. Tyler Boyd will earn the Cooper Kupp role; Green, a combo of the Cooks-Woods roles; John Ross, if healthy, as another variation of the Cooks-Woods role; and the tight end, eventually big-time blocker Drew Sample, will function as a sixth offensive lineman for a unit that improved as run blockers last year.
There shouldn't be any question that Mixon can deliver like Todd Gurley. He's an excellent threat in the short and intermediate passing game and breakaway option with grinder power as a runner. If the offensive line stays healthy, Mixon could see another significant bump in production between 2018-19 that he saw in 2017-18.
The Gut Check is projecting 1,334 yards and 9 scores on the ground and 361 yards and 3 scores through the air for Mixon—and these are conservative figures that have a higher ceiling in the passing game. It's not out of the question that Mixon earns 500-600 yards and 4-6 touchdowns as a receiver.
Gurley earned 580 yards and 4 scores last year and 788 yards and 6 scores the year prior. If the Bengals get Mixon's receiving yards within the bottom end of this range and he becomes a 1,300-yard runner with the help of this productive Rams-based scheme, Mixon will be in the hunt for an elite fantasy year at his position.
Third ROUND: WR Adam Thielen (Minnesota)
This might be the most difficult round to select a go-to player. T.Y. Hilton has 90-reception, 1,500-yard, 10-touchdown upside and if he remains a third-round value, he's the de facto choice. He's so close to a second-round value in June that it makes no sense to consider him a third-round target as the buzz gains around the Colts' offense.
Amari Cooper has similar upside as Hilton but his ceiling will be more touchdown-dependent and the competition for those scores will be more fierce with Elliott and Witten in the fold. Then there's Patrick Mahomes II. While most are concerned there will be a significant regression from his 2018 MVP campaign—especially with losses along the offensive line, running back, and the receiving corps—if the Gut Check opts for an Upside-Down Strategy, Mahomes will be that third-round target for many of his teams.
When drafting backs during the first 2-3 rounds, wide receiver is more likely. Stefon Diggs might be the best route runner on the Vikings, but Thielen is a more physical player. Coming off a career-year in 2018, the offense should remain remarkably similar in personnel and scheme. He'll be a consistent, high-performing option in a balanced offense. It's difficult to pass him up here.
Fourth ROUND: WR Tyler Lockett (Seattle)
While supremely tempted to go with Chris Godwin, Lockett has the far superior quarterback and he's moving into Doug Baldwin's slot role. During Baldwin's prime (2015-17), he averaged 16 starts, 113 targets, 82 catches, 1,062 yards, and 9.67 touchdowns. That's fantasy WR1 production at a fourth-round value.
Lockett is a more explosive player whose style of play at Kansas State actually fits this Baldwin role better than where he's been used in Seattle. The threat of D.K. Metcalf and David Moore will be enough for Lockett to earn easy volume and great mismatches throughout the season.
The Gut Check currently has Lockett projected for 62 catches, 961 yards, and 9 touchdowns. However, it's more likely that we'll see a dip in yards per catch efficiency and a rise in targets, catches, and yardage. It would not be surprising if Lockett's production approaches the range of Baldwin's two best seasons: between 78-94 catches, 1,069-1,128 yards, and 7-14 touchdowns.
Good floor. Great upside. Great quarterback. Good offensive line. Quality deep threats on the outside. It's all part of a tasty fantasy recipe for Lockett.
FifTH ROUND: WR Cooper Kupp (L.A. Rams), but consider Kenyan Drake (Miami)
There's a significant pull to consider Kenyan Drake. A raw ballcarrier coming out of school, Drake has notably improved his footwork and conceptual understanding of the running game since entering the NFL. The Gut Check's projected upside of Drake is close to 1,600 total yards and 10 touchdowns—600 yards more than what yours truly currently has for Kupp.
If Kupp's recovery from ACL surgery remains as strong as it has been, Drake's floor is scarier because we haven't seen a head coach use Drake to his capacity. Kupp is recovering well, but there's always the psychological barrier that a player encounters with the injured knee. This often leads to a player favoring the body part and overcompensating with movements that lead to muscle pulls that set him back 3-6 weeks.
If Kupp doesn't have any cascade injuries throughout August and earns normal practice and playing time during the month, his baseline production in the red zone and volume in the Rams' passing game gives him top-15 PPR fantasy upside. He's arguably the best route runner and best red zone option of the Los Angeles receiving corps.
If Kupp suffers a pull and he's limited for multiple weeks and the Rams baby him throughout August, Drake earns more appeal.
SixTH ROUND: WR Sammy Watkins (Kansas City)
Watkins will scare off most fantasy players who fear injury but don't necessarily understand how deficiencies with training, body alignment, and movement can lend itself to chronic issues. Alshon Jeffery took care of this issue with his hamstrings in recent years. The Chiefs seem optimistic that they have done the same with Watkins.
Watkins can play any of the three receiver positions and he has underrated red zone skills. He's the type of option who could deliver top-15 fantasy production with a high-volume campaign with catches and yardage or equal-to-greater upside as a big-time vertical threat with a high yards-per-catch average. He could also deliver a great balance of high volume targets, significant work in the vertical game, and productivity in the red zone.
There's top-5 upside in Watkins as a talent. He has the quarterback, the coach and scheme, and a talent like Travis Kelce to draw coverage. If he stays healthy, his fantasy floor is better than his current asking price.
SevenTH ROUND: RB Derrius Guice (Washington)
The default answer is Marvin Jones, who has top-12 upside at his position when healthy and any regular reader of this column knows Jones has been on many of the Gut Check's draft manifests. A compelling option is Penny, who spent this offseason working with Marshall Faulk and could deliver fantasy RB3 production like last year's co-committee back, Mike Davis. Penny is also a safer fantasy option than Guice and he also has a strong offensive line.
However, Derrius Guice is arguably the more talented runner. On track to be ready for training camp, Guice's value will rise 2-3 rounds if he earns the lead role immediately.
If there are no complications but he's splitting time with Adrian Peterson, his value will likely remain where it is. And if there are even minor dings that cost Guice a week or two of camp, we could see the fantasy community lose interest and Guice's value drop 2-3 rounds.
Washington has a talented offensive line that hasn't been able to stay healthy in recent years. This, and working with a rookie quarterback also presents potential obstacles. It's also difficult to reconcile that Washington will completely bench Peterson because as old as he is, he's still one of the most punishing and dangerous backs in the league when talking about the potential for runs of 8-12 yards.
Still, there's potential for Guice's value to rise or drop 2-3 rounds between now and August, and his talent makes him a compelling choice for this list. He's the type of talent who could earn top-10 fantasy production if the Washington line stays healthy and Case Keenum plays as well as he did for the Vikings in 2017.
Guice is one of the most intriguing risk-reward players of this draft class.
You can always take Marvin Jones...
EighTH ROUND: WR Tyler Boyd (Cincinnati)
Russell Wilson feels right at this ADP because he's a great quarterback and perennially a value. However, the recent offensive changes, young receivers, and a focus on the ground game overrule the feeling associated with his talent. Most importantly, there are equal to greater values at quarterback available later in fantasy drafts.
Dede Westbrook could lead the Jaguars receiving game—a facet of the offense unshackled from Blake Bortles' inability to process Cover 2. Westbrook plays bigger at the catch point than his size indicates. If Chris Conley's value continues rising due to his spring performance, Westbrook's value could drop enough to make him more appealing.
Boyd, who is not the potential playmaker of Westbrook, has more appeal due to the scheme. He should play a role similar to Cooper Kupp in L.A., which translates to reception volume, healthy yardage totals, and even significant red zone targets.
Boyd has always been a smart, quick, and physical runner after the catch in the underneath zones. If A.J. Green and John Ross both stay healthy, Boyd will feast. Even one of these two options remaining healthy will make Boyd's life easier than last year when he still managed 76 catches, 1,028 yards, and 7 touchdowns.
Last year's totals could remain his fantasy floor this year in an offense where he'll ably mimic Kupp's game.
NinTH ROUND: QB Drew Brees (New Orleans)
Dante Pettis could have a breakout year, Jordan Howard is as underrated as Miles Sanders is overrated, and Royce Freeman is a sneaky-good pick for a Broncos' offense that will be a great match for his talents — especially with Phillip Lindsay unable to practice for some time ahead.
Still, it's difficult to pass up Brees this late. Brees is oddly a "rebound candidate" in a recent Gut Check feature:
Brees had Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara in the passing game as his only two reliable options. The rest were rookies with partial skills or oft-injured veterans who couldn't stay on the field.
Despite this reality, Brees led the league in completion percentage, posted a strong yards-per-attempt average (8.16), and only threw five interceptions. With Jared Cook joining the team and the Saints dusting off the Jimmy Graham chapter of the playbook to accommodate the tight end, Brees now has three reliable options in addition to a year-older Smith, a healthy Ted Ginn Jr Jr, and some intriguing UDFA options I'll mention later this summer if opportunity merits.
Last year, Brees was the No.8 fantasy quarterback. It's a testament to his skills and a top-notch offensive line. This year, expect a return to top-five production as long as his supporting cast remains healthy.
And if disaster strikes, Brees is the Survivor Man of fantasy quarterbacks. He can deliver fantasy QB1 production in situations that would demoralize his peers.
The Saints have an excellent offensive line as well. If one of these young receivers opposite Thomas breaks out, Brees still has a 5,000-yard and 40-touchdown upside.
TenTH ROUND: WR Keke Coutee (Texans)
Coutee is compelling here, especially if you opt to target Philip Rivers at the end of the 12th round or count on a healthy Matthew Stafford to rebound to low-end QB1 production after playing all of last year with broken bones in his back. In fact, the Stafford class as a QB2 to Brees is a decent spend and value when weighing the likely need for Rivers in the 12th or Dak Prescott in the 10th.
Until writing out this explanation above, Prescott had earned this spot—and he'll be a frequent selection for the Gut Check this year because of the improvements to the supporting cast that will minimize Prescott's weaknesses while maximizing the strengths that helped him deliver strong fantasy QB1 production in the recent past.
More people will love Curtis Samuel, a similar player with better-known athletic ability. However, most didn't understand Coutee's explosive athletic ability because he was playing on a bad hamstring since August that never got healthy enough for vertical targets.
This year will be different. What might not be different is Will Fuller's penchant for injury. Whether Fuller remains healthy is not a huge factor for Coutee because he'll benefit either way as an underneath threat who can also stretch the field from the slot.
Think of Coutee as a player with Doug Baldwin's stylistic upside in Seattle and on a team that has a quarterback capable of supporting three receivers with at least 800 yards and 6 touchdowns apiece and up to 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns apiece. Samuel will not have Coutee's red zone potential based on the favorable scheme Houston employed with Coutee.
The second-year receiver has fantasy WR2 PPR upside. The Texans used him last year a lot like Jarvis Landry in Miami. This year Houston should add a vertical element from the slot that Landry rarely shows.
elevenTH ROUND: TE Delanie Walker (Tennessee)
Although Walker isn't at full health, his participation in 7-on-7 drills in May is a great indication that he's progressing nicely. He's a favorite target of Marcus Mariota and he'll benefit from a scheme that will use Adam Humphries and A.J. Brown to get Walker free in similar ranges of the field.
An older option, Walker still has the athletic ability to deliver top-five production at his position and his current price of fantasy TE13 makes him a fantasy value as a low-end TE1. Prior to last season, Walker hasn't missed more than one game during the year since 2010. He has also performed well despite dealing with injuries.
Expecting 600-800 yards and 4-6 touchdowns still seem reasonable for the aging Walker. Considering that I can follow up later with Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, and a few other promising late-round options, having options to resist the trend of taking the early-round tight end is good.
TwelfTH ROUND: RB Darrell Henderson (LA Rams)
No longer as worried about Todd Gurley as his peers, the Gut Check has arrived at the likelihood that Gurley's degenerative condition is similar to many star football players who can manage the condition and continued having quality careers into their early 30s. This issue clouded what was a straight-forward ligament tear that Gurley played through last year and didn't tell anyone.
Gurley will see fewer touches moving forward and may lose his elite fantasy ceiling but consider the decision more to do with having a secondary weapon in Henderson than any notable decline in skill. The healthiest perspective to approach Gurley in fantasy is equating him Mark Ingram's role in New Orleans. Ingram had fantasy RB1 upside even with Alvin Kamara in the fold.
Henderson will earn a role similar to Kamara, which will make him a value this year. The volume may not nearly lead to Henderson having Kamara's rookie upside in 2019, but look for RB3 or flex production at the very least. It isn't out of the question that the Rams thrive with two backs.
