Jalen Milroe Was the Right Pick: The Gut Check No. 646

Jalen Milroe Was a Great Pick in the 2025 NFL Draft

There are few picks I liked more than Seattle taking quarterback Jalen Milroe in the third round of the NFL Draft. Whether you judge it according to his talent, work ethic, potential, draft-day value, and team fit, it's an excellent selection.  

Jalen Milroe isn't the best quarterback in this class right now, but if I were calling the shots as a personnel executive in the NFL, Milroe is one of only two quarterbacks I would have targeted in the 2025 draft -- and the only one I would have considered inside the fourth round. 

In case you're wondering, that other quarterback, Kurtis Rourke, went to the 49ers in the seventh round as an excellent red-shirt pick. 

Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders, Jaxson Dart, and Tyler Shough all have assets that can help them develop into capable starters. Ward has the best ceiling of the four, but I would prefer to see him spend a year on the bench to refine his drop footwork and timing with intermediate passing concepts that he didn't execute enough in college. 

Compared to Jalen Milroe, the league glossed over the weaknesses of the other three. Sanders has a Kirk Cousins-like upside, but he must own the pocket better and mature as a human being.

Dart looks great with targets under 25 yards, but he has scattershot accuracy at distances over that mark -- I've charted enough of these quarterbacks' throws to know. Shough has the arm and athletic ability of a young Jay Cutler, but the pocket management inconsistencies of Kenny Pickett. His decision-making gaffes when the plan doesn't unfold perfectly can resemble the worst of Cutler or Desmond Ridder. 

Meanwhile, you'd think Jalen Milroe couldn't throw a football, work from the pocket, or read a defense if you listened to beat writers and analysts glancing at Senior Bowl practices that interrupted their social networking. While I see these takes, I ignore them.

When you study football games with a structured and defined methodology for quarterback evaluation that has yielded accurate contrarian optimism for Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes II, and Brock Purdy as well as contrarian pessimism for Ridder, Zach Wilson, and Will Levis, you learn to follow your signal.

When I hear about Jalen Milroe's game, there's a lot of noise. When you study it, the signal is strong enough to pay attention to. Combine it with his team fit, and Milroe has a compelling future as a potential franchise quarterback.

Jalen Milroe is a priority dynasty selection and the best potential value pick among the top 40 players in rookie drafts. He's my most underrated option in that range. You're about to find out why.

The Sam Darnold Contract: Not a Strong Argument Against Jalen Milroe

Milroe landed in an excellent situation. Seattle is finally addressing its offensive line with early-round picks after Seahawks' GM John Schneider spent years believing he could find deals at Big Lots. 

Considering this is a shift in Scheider's approach, we should give him a window of 2-3 years to acquire quality early-round talent at the team's greatest positions of need. Signing Sam Darnold to a three-year deal is a smart move.

It affords Seattle the time to build that line with a veteran passer. In theory, Darnold can keep a team competitive during a rebuild of the trenches. 

The Seahawks have a good financial play with Darnold because they aren't tied to him beyond 2025. They have an out with the veteran after the first year, saving $37.5 million. 

Although multiple years on the bench might be the ideal path for Jalen Milroe's development, a year spent behind a veteran can make a huge difference. We'll discuss this point further in a moment.

This is especially true for a Milroe, who is easily the most talented ballcarrier at quarterback since Lamar Jackson. Even a moderate rise in productivity from the trenches can enhance Jalen Milroe's ceiling and limit his floor as a Year Two starter. 

Darnold's History Generates a Bigger Need for Jalen Milroe Than Portrayed

While Darnold had a good season with the Vikings in 2024, he worked with a star-caliber receiving trio. Justin Jefferson is one of the 3-5 best primary options in football. Jordan Addison is on par with DeVonta Smith as a top-end WR2 who can deliver WR1 value.

Although T.J. Hockenson only played 10 games due to his rehabbing of an ACL tear, he delivered top-10 fantasy value at his position after Week 9. Only Philadelphia has as talented and proven a trio at these three spots in the league, and the Eagles don't leverage Goedert as well as the Vikings with Hockenson.

Darnold averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game with this trio and Aaron Jones' career year. Imagine if Patrick Mahomes II, Brock Purdy, or Justin Hurts had this surrounding skill talent, pass-happy scheme, and a top-12 offensive line. 

Darnold's season feels closer to big years from Matt Cassel and Scott Mitchell. I have doubts Darnold will be the guy who wards off Jalen Milroe long-term because he revitalized his career like Geno Smith.

For those unaware, Cassel replaced an injured Tom Brady in 2008 and kept the All-World Patriots offense humming with 3,900 yards of offense and 33 scores. Mitchell's 4,300-yard, 32-TD season subbing for an injured Dan Marino in 1995 has been the watermark for one-season wonders at the position. 

Seattle will be a stiff test for Darnold's career rebound because, as good as Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp are, they are similar styles of receivers whose strengths are route running, especially in the underneath zone. 

Sam Darnold's Charted Accuracy: 2024 (Bold/Underlined Figures = Below Average Performance)

While Jefferson and Addison are excellent options inside the numbers, Darnold's weakness as a field general has been the intermediate passing game, especially inside the numbers, where Seattle's duo is strongest. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is also a significant downgrade as a deep threat to either Jefferson or Addison. 

Examining Darnold's performance against the blitz and pressure (with no extra defenders) also reveals potential issues that could metastasize in Seattle this year — issues that could lead the team to call on Jalen Milroe to salvage the season as a runner.

We're Talking About Sacks

Darnold had an excellent 12-to-0 TD-to-INT ratio against the blitz, but his sack rate against the blitz was 13 percent. This rate was worse than Caleb Williams' (12 percent), and Williams had a much worse offensive line and a poorly conceived offensive scheme for most of the year.

Among Williams, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes II, and Kyler Murray, only Hurts had a worse sack percentage against the blitz. 

Hurts has a good line, but his skill as a runner is something he leverages like Jalen Milroe. Darnold lacks that level of athletic ability, so having a high sack rate isn't usually a trade-off for something else. 

Hurts also had a 41 percent sack rate against pressure, which was second only to Williams (54 percent), who is more like Darnold in style of play. Williams and Darnold primarily avoid pressure and buy time to throw.

Hurts and Jalen Milroe will buy time to throw, but their legs are as valuable as their arms. Hurts averages 692 yards of rushing per season. Darnold averages 199. Jalen Milroe averaged 539.5 yards in 13-game college seasons. 

We'll likely see Milroe as a rookie in situational packages that leverage his combined gifts. The hope is that they don't need to force him into too many scenarios that are beyond his comfort zone. 

Back to sack rates. Williams had a bad line and a poorly conceived scheme. Darnold's line performed among the top 12 in the league, and a scheme and surrounding talent that temporarily helped Joshua Dobbs look like a rocket scientist of a starter. 

Darnold's 32 percent sack rate against pressure placed him third on this list of players despite the quality of his surrounding talent. Considering that Darnold averaged an interception for every 0.7 touchdowns before last year (he cut it to 0.34 in 2024), it's likely the Vikings told him to eat the ball rather than get risky with a target. 

Seattle's offensive line might be 1-2 years away from an ascending unit like the Vikings. As good as Darnold's TD-to-INT ratios looked against the blitz and pressure last year, we must consider that a pocket quarterback is a greater combined function of the passer and his line than quarterbacks like Jalen Milroe, Jalen Hurts, or even excellent pocket maneuverers like Brock Purdy and Joe Burrow. 

Lamar Jackson excels at both, and it was evident against the blitz and pressure. That's for another time.

Darnold's snaps versus the blitz (256) were the lowest of the sample of players studied above--half of the sample saw at least 50 more snaps against the blitz. Against pressure, Darnold had the highest snap rate of the sample (223) and was among the best 3-4 performers of the group as a passer. 

The big question is how much Jefferson and Addison made opposing defenses pay in these situations, and how much of it was Darnold?

There's a sizable likelihood that it could get ugly for Darnold if he's forced to eat the ball more often in Seattle, his receivers can't earn separation early downfield, and struggle to win big after the catch. This is especially true if Valdes-Scantling has to get wide open 2-3 times to catch one ball. 

More hits usually lead to hastier decisions and a higher incidence of injury. Seattle could insert Drew Lock into the mix as the replacement, but it could still lead to the Seahawks relying on Jalen Milroe more often as a rookie. 

Darnold was impressive last year. New York's talent and execution were so bad compared to the surrounding talent in Minnesota that it may be easier for opposing defenses to see where Darnold falters compared to his time with the Jets.

This year, there will be more of a book on what Darnold can/can't do. Combined with Seattle's growing pains, there's a legitimate boom-bust profile with Darnold. 

Jalen Milroe Is the Pick for Future Need and Talent