Luther Burden III: A Top 24 Fantasy WR? Bold or Foolish?
Bold. Foolish. Crazy. Genius. There is a fine line between the four characterizations, depending on the process behind the analysis, the audience's perspective, and (fair or not) the outcome. My thoughts on Luther Burden III will lead some to characterize my analysis in all four ways.
What I'm sharing about Luther Burden III was also true with Ladd McConkey. This is how I began the McConkey article. Exactly a year ago, I ranked McConkey inside my top 10 based on where I believed he would finish, and he remained among my top 15 options throughout the summer.
I didn't tell you to draft McConkey this high. Sometimes rankings should tell you how valuable you believe the player will be as opposed to where you should take him. I'm doing the same with Luther Burden III.
If I ranked Ladd McConkey commensurate to his ADP and then gave him a high upside label, it would have been a safe assessment but a little toothless when conveying confidence level. While the upside and downside scale in Footballguys' rankings adds a layer of value to similarly ranked players, I wanted you to see who McConkey's specific peers would be based on my projections.
There was no better way to do that with a player than to rank him where you believe he'll finish. Bold? Yes. Foolish. Possibly.
As I am about to do with Luther Burden III to kick off the 2025 season, I outlined my reasons for McConkey's value in my first Gut Check of 2024:
- McConkey fit offensive coordinator Greg Roman's archetype for a leading receiver.
- There was no competition for McConkey's role in L.A.
- Justin Herbert was a good pairing for McConkey's advanced skills.
I projected Ladd McConkey higher than I will Luther Burden III: 130-150 targets, 90-110 catches, 1,000-1,200 yards, and 3-5 scores. Still, the same theme is true about both receivers' value: "You won't have to take Ladd McConkey as a top-10 fantasy receiver, but he presents a bargain--even as a heralded player in one of the most celebrated rookie receiver classes in recent memory."
McConkey finished with 112 targets, 82 catches, 1,149 yards, and 7 scores in 16 games, finishing 14th among receivers -- 9th at his position between Weeks 8-18.
Welcome Back for Another Round...
I am much higher on Luther Burden III than the consensus, but don't think I'm doing this because McConkey's success has intoxicated me. There's a 20-year-old method to the madness, and it has been aging well in recent years.
I've been bullish on rookie wide receivers delivering as starters before. A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and Chris Olave were all players I had higher than the consensus. I specifically labeled Brown, Jefferson, Chase, and Olave as players with the best team fit among their peers and most likely to deliver strong production immediately. Even Jayden Reed and Jordan Addison were higher on my board than most.
Even during the era of the over-engineered, BMI-height/weight knockout factors that a Philadelphia Eagles analytics consultant misapplied (and some corners of the fantasy analytics writers took too far), my love remained steadfast for Odell Beckham Jr's game.
Luther Burden III has this level of talent, but his skills and fit are misunderstood. Many labeled Brown and Jefferson bad fits. They got sucked into the same myths about receivers that we're seeing about Burden.
I also didn't overreact to Chase's drops during training camp. I'm not going to overreact to Luther Burden III going to baseball games with his teammates and throwing out a pitch while nursing hamstring and oblique injuries. The hyperanalysis has gotten ridiculous.
I share this recent history because I've gained confidence in my process of assessing talent and fit at the wide receiver position. If I see a strong talent and a great initial fit, I'm going bold to the hole.
As we delve deeper into Luther Burden III, we will revisit the rookie seasons of Jefferson, Beckham, and Brown for additional context to address common concerns.
Luther Burden III Fits Ben Johnson's Lead WR Archetype
On the surface, the Chicago Bears receiver room and the debacle of a 2024 season don't inspire confidence among fantasy GMs for Luther Burden III. The analysis myths are rampant:
- There are too many mouths to feed.
- Caleb Williams is unproven, and he can't support multiple options.
- Burden is a gadget player based on college usage and efficiencies.
Last year, McConkey got knocked for his limited college production history and his lack of history as a primary option in Georgia's offense.
Data collection can miss vital context about a player's skills translating to the pros and his potential fit with a new scheme. It's vital to project a player's techniques, knowledge of positional concepts, and athletic ability to the NFL.
This is what I did with all of the receivers listed above, and it's what I've done with Luther Burden III. Let's examine the bulleted list of myths as they relate to Burden. We're going to work backward.
Myth No. 1: Luther Burden III Is A Gadget Player
There's NFL Draft and fantasy analysis from winter and spring that compares Burden's production profile to Wan'Dale Robinson and Mecole Hardman. Luther Burden III earned a lot of quick-hitting targets at or behind the line of scrimmage at Missouri, so it tracks that incomplete analysis will arrive at these comparisons.
Burden's college production made it difficult for data analysts to get a clear profile of Luther Burden III's skills outside this narrow scope of usage. What people fail to see is that this difficulty is actually about the limits of their analysis and shouldn't be conflated with the limits of Luther Burden III's game.
Most of you are old enough to remember that A.J. Brown was a slot receiver at Ole Miss and Justin Jefferson manned the slot at LSU. Analysts underrated both players based on their roles, failing to adequately document their skills that transcend the results.
Tracking production, breakout seasons, route success, and draft capital are all valuable layers of studying a player. If you're not analyzing the processes of releases, route stems, route breaks, uncovering against defenders, and man-to-man routes vs. zone routes, there's a significant risk of missing the underlying foundation of what helps us project success for a player.
With a large enough sample, data analysis can gloss over this missing context and sometimes get more right than wrong and proclaim success. Analysts hope these processes are baked into the results. When they are, they don't have to understand the tools of wide receiver play that make or break the player's game.
This approach is good enough to allow you to color within the lines of safe decision-making because a large enough sample can encompass enough "good play" to bake the process into the results. When you follow safe decision-making, you're less likely to be a big loser in fantasy football.
If you stay within the lines too much and don't consider compelling scenarios to step outside, you're also less likely to be a big winner. There are areas of the draft where it's safer to avoid the consensus because everyone is thinking alike. In competitive endeavors, you win by fitting in.
Luther Burden III's data may scream dink-and-dunk and/or gadget archetypes like Robinson, Mecole Hardman, and Tavon Austin, but you might as well have seen smoke on Instagram while scanning your phone during previews in a movie theater and screamed FIRE!!!! None of these three gadgets had complete games with routes or at the point of the catch.
Luther Burden III is a far more complete route runner than characterized, and his speed will translate to the vertical game. Burden demonstrated position-specific techniques and concepts on film that some data analysts couldn't quantify due to sample size, but these skills led to route success beyond the gadget game.
- He repeatedly beats cornerbacks aligned at the line of scrimmage on vertical routes.
- He stacks (cuts off their paths to control the route) defenders early or late in routes.
- He uses effective changes in pacing and takes angles to enforce a defender's position to set up breaks.
- He uses his head and eyes at the top of routes to bait defenders playing over the top.
- His breaks are tight, sharp, and have the snap to gain angles of separation that defenders can't cut off.
- He can drop his weight into breaks against tight coverage, and it leads to effective separation.
These are techniques that receivers like Luther Burden III don't perform by accident and occasionally get right once. These aren't false positives based on the study of results. These are true positives based on the study of the process.
Luther Burden III's route skills, speed, ability to adjust with his quarterback, and pass-tracking make him a legitimate intermediate and vertical threat.
Luther Burden III delivers a play that is really projectable for "rapport" he could potentially have with a QB.
- Scramble drill adjustment deep.
- Baits the safety tight to him until last moment.
- Uncovers late and drags feet.
Excellent tracking and disguising.#NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/BjNn6Yj8Jh
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) December 3, 2024 ">
Where most analysts universally agree is that Luther Burden III can win in the slot and near the line of scrimmage. He has excellent skill after the catch. The film and data crowd that have more complete models incorporating greater amounts of contextual information know that Luther Burden III can perform beyond the restrictions of his role in Missouri last year.
If you understand the contextual value of routes and releases, you know that Burden can be a capable flanker or slot option immediately.
Releases against press-man are the one set of skills Luther Burden III can improve. His pacing and range of footwork applications lack the precision and detail of the top NFL receivers.
This is common -- ask Davante Adams, who needed a few years to truly become a great route runner. Still, Adams was purely an outside receiver in his early days.
Luther Burden III will either be off the line as a flanker or have easier releases from the slot against off-coverage. He may earn gadget plays, but he will be much more than a gadget player.
What about the hamstring?
Patience. We'll get there.