Which rookie running back do you think will have the most value in the 2021 season?
Jason Wood
Let me preface this by saying I like this running back class quite a bit, but we have to acknowledge in today's NFL it's no longer treated as a premier position in many front offices. I think Josh Jacobs is in consideration for the 2021 best player, but he's not my top pick because I have little faith in Jon Gruden and his coaching staff to build a top-tier offense. My choice right now would be Darrell Henderson, because Todd Gurley has an arthritic knee. While I think most of my colleagues are over concerned about Gurley's 2019 prospects, projecting his value in two more years gets risky. I could easily see David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, and Alexander Mattison being the top player in 2021, as well.
Daniel Simpkins
Much will change between now and then, but David Montgomery is the highest probability choice given that the Bears seem to be on the cusp of title contention and considering Montgomery’s three-down skillset, something few backs in this class posses.
Sigmund Bloom
Miles Sanders could pass Josh Jacobs in 2021 because Jordan Howard is likely gone and the Eagles offense is a better situation. If Todd Gurley's knee deteriorates quickly, Darrell Henderson becomes the most valuable. I'm sticking with Jacobs though, as the Raiders offense should take a big step forward this year.
Andy Hicks
This is where the best back comes into the argument and that may not be Josh Jacobs. Coaching changes, offensive style progression and opportunity are going to show us who is the best back.
The obvious answer again is Josh Jacobs, but for argument's sake lets just say the Oakland to Las Vegas experiment goes awry. If we stick with backs drafted in the first three rounds, Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, Devin Singletary, and Damien Harris all look to be in great situations for a feature back. Sanders should burn off Howard and the others if he is any good, Montgomery similarly with Mike Davis, while it is hard to see Frank Gore providing much competition to Devin Singletary at age 38. Damien Harris and Sony Michel will be a good situation to monitor. By 2021, these two will still be under contract so may the best man win. If I had to answer the question with one player, I like the look of David Montgomery as he fits into the offense well. The 2019 season won’t be his best year, but if he takes his opportunity, 2021 may well just be him playing at his best.
Dan Hindery
I like Jacobs both short and long term. He is just 21-years old and handled just 299 total touches in his three years at Alabama. Without a lot of wear and tear, he should have a better chance of staying healthy despite handling a heavy workload. Expect Jacobs to get as many carries as he can handle over the next few years. “If you’re listening, Josh,” Gruden said in his post-draft press conference, “I encourage you to get some rest because we’re going to run you a lot. We’re going to give you a great opportunity certainly.”
There is little question as to what role the Raiders envision for Jacobs, with Jon Gruden saying he views Jacobs, Derek Carr, and Antonio Brown as the three centerpieces of the offense. 2019 was the first draft for Mike Mayock and he clearly prioritized Jacobs as the one offensive guy he wanted to land. If the Raiders are right about Jacobs, he should be in the fantasy RB1 mix in 2021.
Chad Parsons
Josh Jacobs is the stock answer as Round 1 picks have a huge longevity advantage and opportunity as an NFL starter. With 2021 still inside the rookie contract window, my pick is Damien Harris with his lead back profile from Alabama and ability to handle a workload with his nuanced skill set and seeing the Patriots shifting to more of a run-game focus in Tom Brady's twilight years. Sony Michel's knee concerns will not go away and by Year 3 (2021), Harris will be the unquestioned starter for the Patriots even if there are questions or bumps in the opportunity road in 2019 and 2020.
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